Tennessee’s financial officers probably aren’t too happy with Texas A&M. Join the club.

The Aggies have cost the entire college football world enough money to ruin any accountants day. The Vols, like all others, are about to have to pay up.

Why is the Texas A&M contract with coach Jimbo Fisher such a big deal? Well, the contract that Texas A&M offered up to Fisher in 2017 was unlike any other known contract in college football history because of its length and guaranteed payout. Now, that contract is more the norm than the aberration. Ask Southern California coach Lincoln Riley, who left Oklahoma for a similar contract. Let’s be clear, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel is about to get paid. Big time.

Barring a catastrophe, the Vols will be successful in 2022. The Vols should win nine games during the regular season based on their schedule. Let’s work under that premise moving forward.

Winning nine games – or even eight – would be an improvement. It’s also worth noting that Heupel has already re-ignited Tennessee’s fanbase with his explosive offense and everyman approach to his job. Heupel has been a success and it looks like that trend will continue. If so, it’s time to renegotiate the contract that Heupel signed in 2021 that pays him $4 million per year.

That brings the Aggies into play. Texas A&M changed the entire pay structure of college football. The annual pay rate is higher, as one would expect, but there’s more. The contract is also guaranteed with a longer term than any athletic director would have imagined.

Heupel will eventually feel the lucrative financial repercussions from the Aggies’ contract with Fisher. In fact, other coaches, like Riley, have already seen the uptick financially. The most eye-opening contract could be coming any day now. Georgia coach Kirby Smart is bound to be in Fisher-like territory now that Smart has slayed the mighty Alabama dragon.

Let’s be clear: Heupel is not worth as much as Smart or Riley. However, rising waters raise all boats. Dingy or not, every coach will benefit from Fisher’s deal. Stanford coach David Shaw is making an estimated $9 million per season and that boat seems to be headed toward Niagra Falls. The Cardinal went 3-9 last season.

Fisher will also make $9 million this season. If the Aggies aren’t happy with the results they get this season, they’ll owe him $95,575,000 to leave the premises, per Saturday Down South. That’s called a serious financial commitment.

There’s no financial relief in sight for Texas A&M. The Aggies will still be on the hook for a buyout of at least $48 million until 2027. Fortunately for Texas A&M, the buyout is much more manageable after the 2027 season. It’s just about $39 million. Surely, there’s enough oil in the state of Texas to pay that off. Despite Pilot’s best efforts, there isn’t that much oil in Tennessee.

Could Tennessee match a Fisher-like contract if Heupel becomes the next Steve Spurrier, heads up an exciting offense and wins a national championship? Certainly. However, the middle ground that Heupel and Tennessee will likely be faced with is much more interesting.

At 9-3, the Vols would have to give Heupel a hefty raise and that’s just counting wins in the regular season. Heupel will deserve more compensation after a nine-win season based on this market. He’ll also deserve more security, which is the same thing that Fisher wanted to make the move from Florida State to A&M. That’s where things get a bit sticky. Heupel, even with 10 wins in 2022, would not be as proven as Fisher, who won a national championship at Florida State.

Heupel doesn’t have a national championship on his resume. Tennessee doesn’t want to go looking for another coach. The Vols also have a bad habit of overpromising money to coaches that underdeliver. Tennessee doesn’t want to be known as “Buyout U” again. The Vols have had to pay just about anyone who walked in the athletic facility to vacate the premises.

So what would be fair market value if Heupel wins nine games? Let’s start with $5 million per season as a bare minimum. Considering where Tennessee football has been and where they can go under Heupel, that’s just a starting point.

How about $6 million? Unless I’m proven wrong, Heupel is worth it with that amount of money – with one big caveat. There needs to continue to be a substantial buyout for him if he leaves Tennessee. That shouldn’t be a problem. Heupel has obliged with that request before.

Heupel would owe the Vols $6 million if he left Tennessee after this season and $4 million after the 2023 season. So, Heupel gets it. That’s a good sign. However, it would be wise to try and include a departure to the NFL as part of the agreement. That would help the Vols feel more secure. I doubt Heupel would go for that, but it never hurts to ask.

Tennessee doesn’t want to build around Heupel and have him leave for another job. Therefore, the Vols have to be the comfy, appreciative home that every coach is looking for.

As far as other jobs in college football, Oklahoma doesn’t seem like a fit despite the fact that Heupel played quarterback for the Sooners. Remember, Heupel was fired by Oklahoma in 2014. However, things change and home is always home so that will always be a concern.

A new administration at Oklahoma could see Heupel as one of the top coaches in the country. Heupel may forgive the school if those that were in charge during his dismissal were dismissed themselves. Tennessee fans know all too well that politics and relationships can change an athletic department faster than Heupel’s offense can get a snap off.

It’s important for both parties to see the potential that they have together. It’s important that both parties show the willingness to meet halfway on a contract and not require the obscene numbers that the Aggies have made commonplace.

There’s no question Heupel would deserve a pay raise and a stronger commitment if Tennessee wins nine games or more this season. However, Texas A&M’s deal with Fisher doesn’t have to be the standard just yet. There’s plenty of time for Heupel and Tennessee to agree to a mega-contract when the proof of performance is there. That’s probably at least a year off.

If Tennessee does become elite under Heupel, none of those accountants would gripe about paying $10 million per season. A championship would make the numbers look much better.