Tennessee enters Josh Hepeul’s second season with tons of optimism and anticipation. Expectations come along with those as well. No problem. The Vols will meet the lofty expectations held by so many.

First, let’s set realistic expectations. The “gambling season” began with oddsmakers placing a 7.5 over/under win total on the season. I thought then – and still do – that was one of the most solid bets in all of college football. The number has changed in some places as Tennessee fans pushed it to eight or 8.5 wins in some cases. Nevertheless, I still like the over.

Tennessee will win nine games this season. Here’s why:

Locks

Love it or hate it, there are definitely sure-fire wins on each successful program’s schedule. That’s just the way college football is. There may come a time in which every week brings concern, much like the NFL model, if college football goes full mega-conference mode one day. That hasn’t happened yet.

Tennessee will beat Ball State, Akron and UT-Martin with ease.

That’s three wins.

I also believe that the Vols are considerably better than Missouri and Vanderbilt. Tennessee will win those games.

That’s five wins.

Now, things get interesting.

Swing Games

Let’s start with Tennessee’s Week Two opponent. Pitt beat Tennessee last season as the Vols were still trying to find their identity and a quarterback. From various conversations I’ve had with Tennessee players via The Vol Report, I know that’s a game that the Vols have a keen eye on.

Pitt is better than many think for those that don’t keep up with football in the Keystone State. The Panthers may actually be better up front than Tennessee on both sides of the ball. However, I don’t think Pitt will be markedly better than the Vols on the offensive and defensive lines, just slightly better. However, Tennessee is much better at the skill positions than Pitt. I have that chalked up as a win.

That’s six wins.

The Vols also have another tough matchup in September when Florida comes to Neyland Stadium. I know that many reading this are saying they won’t ever believe Tennessee will beat Florida until they actually see it. Well, I see it happening this season. Florida is rebuilding and has a challenging September schedule.

That’s seven wins.

When the betting lines first came out, many thought that Tennessee was a savvy pick to upset LSU. That looks like an even stronger possibility now that quarterback Myles Brennan has stepped away from college football. There’s no guarantee he would have started this season for LSU. However, uncertainty at quarterback leads me to pick the Vols even though the game is in Baton Rouge.

That’s eight wins.

Based on my prediction, Tennessee will leave Louisiana with a win. That would put Tennessee at 5-0 headed into the Alabama game. We’ll get to that in a second. First, let’s take note. If the Vols are 5-0, they would be close to being ranked in the top 10 and one of the best stories in college football.

As far as the other swing games on Tennessee’s schedule, the Vols will host Kentucky, who might be favored over Tennessee depending on how things shake out earlier in the season. I like Tennessee to beat Kentucky this year despite the fact that the Cats are better than most believe.

Tennessee has a great advantage against Kentucky. They play UT-Martin before the Wildcats. That means the Vols can tune up and rest up before they close October with The Battle for the Beer Barrel. I’m sorry. I’m not supposed to call that game that anymore. My bad.

That’s nine wins.

The Vols play South Carolina in November. There has been plenty of hype with the Gamecocks. However, their roster is one of the worst in the SEC. Tennessee will be favored and should win that game.

That would be 10 wins. However, I’m not going that far. The Vols will most likely lose one of those swing games.

Dynamic Duo

My co-host on Off The Hook Sports, Amanda LaFratta, has picked Tennessee to beat Georgia this season. I’m not willing to go that far, although Tennessee’s offense can certainly turn an upset or two this season.

I don’t think Tennessee’s roster is anywhere near Georgia’s or Alabama’s, so it would take a special day for the Vols to beat either team. In fact, from a schematic standpoint, I actually think Tennessee has a better chance against Alabama than Georgia. However, I’m not ready to pick the Vols to win either game.

We’ll learn a lot about the Bulldogs this season. With so many departures to the NFL, will they wilt or just reload like Alabama? I think the latter.

That’s the next step for Tennessee. The Vols have to continue to upgrade their roster and, based on recent history, will do so.

The biggest question for any coach stepping up to the SEC is just how good they can recruit. Well, it seems the Vols can do that. Tennessee’s 2023 class currently ranks 11th in the nation and fifth in the SEC. That’s workable for now, but it will need to get better.

Recruiting needs to continue to improve and climb up the rankings. I wasn’t certain that would happen this time last year. However, I think the Vols can continue to win more and more battles against Georgia and Alabama in the future, but, before I get ahead of myself, here is my official prediction.

Tennessee will finish the season with nine wins. I have zero question about that if you include a bowl game. I actually think the Vols will win nine games in the regular season alone.

What does that mean for Tennessee? Even higher expectations and more optimism in 2023.