There are a couple of notions floating around the Tennessee-Florida game that are quite pervasive. One is absurd.

Let’s start with the fact that Tennessee should absolutely beat the Gators because the Vols are considerably better. That one is right on the money. Let that mindset prevail. This is a golden opportunity. Tennessee should beat the Gators and be disheartened if they don’t. I could get into the fact that losing to Florida doesn’t derail a season. However, let’s not go there. 

Then, there’s a contention amongst some that if Tennessee can’t beat Florida this year, they never will. That’s the absurd one. There’s zero reason to think that Tennessee can’t compete with Florida each and every year no matter where the game is held. This isn’t the same Tennessee-Florida series you might be used to.

There have been two very successful runs at Florida over the past 30 years. They had something in common. The both were overseen by future Hall of Fame coaches. Former Florida coach Steve Spurrier was an offensive savant. Former Gator coach Urban Meyer’s resume was unquestionable, unlike his character.

Is Billy Napier the next coming of Spurrier or Meyer? History would suggest not. Is Florida such an elite program that a slightly above average coach can win a championship, like LSU? Not even close. Looking for proof, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen were both highly thought of before they fielded some toothless Gators’ teams.

Florida always had a recruiting advantage over Tennessee and the Gators still do. However, it’s not nearly as pronounced as it was during the series’ heyday in the 1990’s. Florida is a talent-rich state, but it can’t be ruled by the Gators as it once was.

Florida has to constantly fend off other schools who are dead-set on recruiting prospects in Florida. That wasn’t the case before recruiting budgets ballooned along with the entire sport. There are dozens of schools that have the financial ability to hop on a plane and see prospects. Tennessee is one of them.

The Vols also have a recruiting area that they never would have dreamed of just a couple of decades ago. Nashville is a hotbed of talent and, well, no one really roots for Vanderbilt in the mid-state area so that means it’s fertile recruiting territory for the Vols. No one is confusing Nashville for Dade County in South Florida. However, the Vols can actually build a team with a recruiting base that is mainly focused on in-state prospects. That would have been laughable back when Jabar Gaffney didn’t make that catch.

There is also NIL money at play nowadays. No one would have ever dreamed of paying players when Spurrier was throwing visors around. Things have changed. There are programs that have more ability to support players financially. Tennessee is one of them.

Walking hand-in-hand with the notion that Florida is going to continue to dominate Tennessee is the aforementioned notion that Napier will be a stellar head coach. How sure are we of that?

Napier is 42-13 in his career, which included a 40-12 record in which he turned Louisiana into a program that could field a 12-1 team last season. There’s no questioning that Napier did a fantastic job at Louisiana, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind. First, the state of Louisiana has an incredibly high number of NFL players per capita. The talent base is incredible. Second, after covering recruiting for nearly 20 years, I know that prospects usually don’t want to leave that state. They’re far more loyal than any state in the union. 

It just takes a handful of prospects that want to stay home close to mama (think of “The Waterboy”) to turn a program around. When those type of prospects don’t get an offer from LSU, they have to turn to someone. That’s when Napier could slip in and nab some top talent.

Napier has been a recruiting coordinator at Clemson so you’d think he would be able to hold his own against the nation’s elite programs. The same was said about former Florida head coach Ron Zook and you can see where that got the Gators.

Napier could easily be just like former Tennessee coach Butch Jones, who was a decent recruiter, got the Vols to respectability, but couldn’t get over the hump and eventually lost the fan base. Remember, prospects don’t have the same perspective that grown men do. They look at the Gators as a program that has been trying to rebuild for a decade, a program that once had a naked coach laying on a shark. Well, maybe.

The prospects that are currently considering Florida were playing with Tonka trucks when Florida was last considered a national championship contender. They likely don’t see Florida as elite.

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel is trying to change how the Vols are perceived and he’s doing a pretty good job. His offense has helped that immensely. Does Napier have that in his bag of tricks? Can he provide something, like UT’s high-flying offense, that can make Florida standout? We’ll see. For now, I’d take Heupel over Napier in a heartbeat.

The Vols will probably win on Saturday. They’re the better team and the ghosts of the past don’t seem to have an effect on Heupel or his players, who have been incredibly loose this week. However, if Tennessee doesn’t beat Florida this time around, they Vols should still be well-equipped to beat the Gators in Gainesville next year or the year after that or the year after that. 

Suggesting the Vols just have one shot to turn the tide of the Tennessee-Florida series is an insult to what Heupel has built at UT – and it’s not even remotely true.