We had a very rough start to the college football season, going 1-3 in Week 0. However, it’s time to get that money back. Throughout the year, we’ll gamble on every SEC and top 25 game along with any other lines that look good out there and close out with our three best bets. We won’t bet on games involving FCS teams. Let’s dive in for Week 1.

Utah -4.5 vs. Florida, Over 44.5

The under is a trendy pick for Thursday night’s game between the Utah Utes and Florida Gators with Cam Rising hurt and UF’s offseason turmoil at quarterback. However, given what both teams did last year, it’s just too low, so I’m taking the over. With the game in Utah, though, yes, Kyle Whittingham’s team will cover.

Tennessee -28 vs. Virginia, Over 56

Josh Heupel’s offense will allow the Vols to cover in this game. However, the defense is what will do it. The Virginia Cavaliers are a terrible matchup for UT, so they may only score a touchdown. With edge rusher Chico Bennett Jr. out, the Vols should be able to pour it on too, so take the over.

Ball State +29.5 vs. Kentucky, Under 49.5

I’m really high on the under in this game. Kentucky Wildcats games averaged a total of 39 points last year, and Ball State Cardinals games averaged a total of 50. Sure, UK will be better with Devin Leary at QB and Liam Coen back as offensive coordinator, but Ball State’s offense will suffer facing them. UK won’t score enough to cover.

Auburn -35 vs. UMASS, Over 51.5

Typically you never bet this much on a team entering its first game under a new head coach. However, Hugh Freeze is an offensive genius, and the UMASS Minutemen are one of the worst teams in college football. Don’t read into their 41-30 win last week over the New Mexico State Aggies. NMSU is that bad too. Auburn hits the over by itself Saturday.

Texas A&M -38 vs. New Mexico, Under 49

The Texas A&M Aggies will struggle this year because the offense won’t work with Bobby Petrino and Jimbo Fisher. However, they had a top 25 defense in college football last year, and the New Mexico Lobos averaged 13 points a game en route to a 2-10 campaign. As a result, in a rarity, take A&M to cover, but the Under is the best play here.

MTSU +39.5 vs. Alabama, Over 51.5

Right now, the Alabama Crimson Tide don’t have a quarterback. As a result, Nick Saban will play all three, trying to test things out, especially when he has a comfortable lead. That will allow the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders to put up a fight. I’m still on the over because a 49-14 type game seems likely here.

North Carolina -2.5 vs. South Carolina, Under 64.5

We don’t know which Spencer Rattler will show up for the South Carolina Gamecocks, and both teams have new offensive coordinators. However, the North Carolina Tar Heels have a proven OC in Chip Lindsey, and Drake Maye is more consistent. That’s why UNC is a better bet. Lindsey runs more ball control, and I haven no faith in USC OC Dowell Loggains so take the under.

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida State, Over 56

Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers won the East last year and return the best quarterback in the SEC. They barely lost to the FSU Seminoles in a massive fluke last year. This is a wildly different team, and FSU is massively overrated. As a result, LSU will be all in on revenge in the only top 25 college football matchup, so look for them to score at will, which is why you take the over.

Three best bets

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida State

I’ve been stressing all offseason that FSU is the most overrated team in college football. If they played LSU in October last year, they’d have lost by 30. LSU was better at the end of last year and got even better in the offseason, so go all in on them covering.

Ball State vs. Kentucky Under 49.5

You just can’t ignore Kentucky’s track record of ball control under Mark Stoops even with Liam Coen back. They’ll still be solid on defense too, so they’ll shut down Ball State. As a result, I love the idea of the under in this game. Neither team scores a lot.

Iowa vs. Utah State Under 43

Here’s another under play. The Iowa Hawkeyes will shut down a horrendous Utah State Aggies offense. However, Iowa never scored more than 33 in a game last year and only broke 30 once. As a result, regardless of how bad Utah State is, Iowa won’t score enough for this to hit the over.