We went 8-9 with two pushes in last week’s round of college football gambling predictions and 1-2 on our best bets. That brings our best bets to 9-9 on the year, so we’re slightly under water, but we’re still 69-57 overall. This week has two SEC teams on a bye and the other 12 playing each other plus four other top 25 games and our extra best bet, giving us 11 games. Let’s begin our comeback.
Vanderbilt +31.5 vs. Georgia, Under 56
Last week’s easiest call was that the Bulldogs would cover against the Kentucky Wildcats, playing an undefeated team at home at night and dealing with all the unjustified negative attention. However, I can’t be sure they’ll keep it up. They do play down to their opponents. As a result, my call is that the offense sputters again, keeping UGA from covering or the over hitting. They win something like 35-7.
Arkansas +20 at Alabama; Over 46.5
Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks are 2-4 but putting up fights each week. They catch a Crimson Tide team riding high after an emotional victory over the Texas A&M Aggies and looking ahead to revenge against the Vols next week. As a result, K.J. Jefferson catches the defense napping and puts up a fight. Alabama wins late, but Jefferson will help the Hogs cover and hit the over.
South Carolina -2 vs. Florida; Over 51.5
Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks are coming off a much-needed bye. The Gators, unless they’re playing Tennessee, don’t have the defense to stop this version of Spencer Rattler. As a result, Rattler torches them. Given how bad Billy Napier has been on the road, South Carolina wins easily to get to 3-3, and Rattler will be why this game hits the over.
Oregon +3 at Washington; Under 66
Two undefeated top 25 teams playing this late in the season is why college football will miss this Pac-12. Michael Penix Jr. is a Heisman frontrunner, and the Huskies are also at home. The better quarterback and home field should help, but the Ducks are better on both sides of the line of scrimmage. As a result, they slow down that offense, so take the under, and Dan Lanning’s team to cover.
Tennessee -3 vs. Texas A&M, Under 54.5
While the game itself is a toss-up, the Vols playing at home and coming off a bye while the Aggies just had an emotional loss to Alabama should be enough for Josh Heupel’s team to cover. On the other hand, this isn’t last year’s UT team, as they run it a lot more, and A&M has a backup quarterback, so take the under with ease here.
Auburn +11 at LSU; Under 61
Sure, they’re playing at home, but coming off an emotional win at the Missouri Tigers, the LSU Tigers won’t be in the right state as much against this week’s Tigers vs. Tigers showdown. Hugh Freeze has almost caught teams napping already this year, as Auburn has a solid defense, so while LSU wins, they play sloppy, resulting in Auburn covering and the under hitting.
Kentucky -2.5 vs. Missouri; Over 51.5
While the college football world overreacted against Georgia last week, they’re overreacting against the Wildcats for UGA blowing them out this week. The Dawgs are just that good. Kentucky gets Mizzou at home, is better-coached and honestly has better talent. As a result, they cover with ease, and both quarterbacks air it out, so take the over.
USC +3 at Notre Dame; Under 59
Everybody is on the Fighting Irish in this one since the Trojans needed triple-overtime to win last week. However, Notre Dame lost to an overrated Louisville Cardinals team. The truth about Notre Dame is they always struggle around this time because of their midterm schedule for athletes. As a result, they won’t cover, and their offensive woes will be why this hits the under.
UNC -3.5 vs. Miami; Over 57.5
There’s absolutely no way a college football team can recover from what the Hurricanes suffered through last week. Now, having to go on the road facing a red-hot Tar Heels program, they’re going to get blown out. Don’t forget it was a bad look to be struggling with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets anyway. Drake Maye goes off, so this game hits the over.
Oregon State -3.5 vs. UCLA; Over 54
The Washington State Cougars beat the Beavers by three at home and lost to the Bruins by eight on the road. Now, in a round robin, Oregon State plays UCLA, and the home team seems to have the advantage each time. As a result, Oregon State wins this one to stay alive in the Pac-12 race, and my stereotypical view of these type of Pac-12 games is why the over hits.
Best bets
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M, the Under 54.5
Go all in on the under. Texas A&M’s offense will struggle given the Vols’ elite pass rush and improved secondary. Meanwhile, UT is not last year’s team. Joe Milton III has issues at quarterback, and Josh Heupel runs more of a ball control offense. As a result, it’s an easy call to say the first team to 30 wins this one.
Florida State -17.5 vs. Syracuse
Two weeks in a row, the Orange have faced decent programs after a weak start to their schedule. The result is losing 31-14 to a downtrodden Clemson Tigers team and 40-7 to UNC. Now, they have to face a Seminoles team two weeks removed from a bye. During that time, Syracuse was undefeated, so it’s likely Mike Norvell has spent two full weeks on them. As a result, prepare for a blowout.
USC Moneyline at Notre Dame
Yes, I’m going against college football consensus. Not only will USC cover at Notre Dame. They will pull off the upset. Again, despite the issues with their defense and the long game last week and Notre Dame playing at home, Marcus Freeman’s team has real issues, and it’s midterm week. Always fade Notre Dame during midterm week.
