After just a taste, college football finally hits full swing this weekend. I went 2-3 on my best bets of Week 0, but in my defense, I was 2-0 in the bets I fully believed in. Still, I don’t run, and once again, I’m keeping track for how I do this year. As always, I pick every SEC and top 25 game and then give my five favorite bets.
Obviously, the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners joining the SEC increases our coverage of league games. All of them being non-conference matchups PLUS FCS games being part of the fold make this a huge week. Here are our suggested bets for Week 1 of college football.
Arkansas Pine-Bluff +48.5 at Arkansas; Under 57.5
Even when Bobby Petrino was an offensive genius, he didn’t run up thr score like this until another offensive line forced him to. The Golden Lions will face a Petrino-led offense that’s rusty and will take some adjusting to do, which is why they are able to cover and this game hits the Under.
Murray State +46.5 at Missouri; Over 57.5
I am prepared to say the Missouri Tigers were the flukes of college football last year. They’ll still beat the Murray State Racers, but Murray State will cover, and this game will hit the over because of MIzzou’s defensive issues that nobody seems to want to pay attention to.
Temple +42.5 at Oklahoma; Under 57.5
I believe the Oklahoma Sooners won’t live up to the hype Brent Venables set last year. Add in the fact that it’s set to rain in Norman, Okla., this weekend, and you’re looking at a sloppy game won by OU. As a result, take the Owls to cover, and take the under,
Georgia -13.5 vs. Clemson; Under 48.5
Two years ago, the Georgia Bulldogs won this game 10-3. However, Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers have fallen off further since then, and UGA is the mecca of college football now with Nick Saban gone. They’ll manhandle Clemson with their defense, but can their offense maintain this level of success?
Virginia Tech -13.5 at Vanderbilt; Under 48.5
Brent Pry has the Virginia Tech Hokies headed in the right direction. Clark Lea thought the same thing about the Vanderbilt Commodores two years ago. Still, Pry has WAY more talent around his team, so he should win easily. However, Clemson could make it a shootout, so take the Over 48.5
Tennessee -38.5 vs. Chattanooga; Over 56.5
Since the SEC tiebreaker said it would account for style points, it’s a safe bet it would. The Tennessee Vols are 38.5-point favorites over the Chattanooga Mocs. All the hype is around Nico Iamaeava. Josh Heupel and this offense had better deliver here. As a result, take them to cover and the over.
Texas -32 vs. Colorado State; Over 60.5
Similar to the Vols, Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns have a ton of hype surrounding this team, so they have to light up a solid program on the rise under Jay Norvell. Still, Norvell will be aggressive, so the 60.5 over/uner is one of the lowest in college football.
Miami -2.5 at Florida; Under 53.5
Billy Napier has a disaster with the Florida Gators. Mario Cristobal has his team in good shape with the addition of Cameron Ward. Overall, despite Cristobal’s faults, the Hurricanes should cover this one. However, sloppy play makes it worth taking the Under.
South Carolina -21 vs. Old Dominion; Under 52.5
Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks are coming apart, particularly on defense. As a result, after S.C. does its job offensively to beat the Old Dominion Monarchs, which it will do, the edge rushers will step up. That’s why they cover while this game hits the under,
Mississippi State -24.5 vs. Eastern Kentucky; Over 60.5
Jeff Lebby has the best and most cutting-edge offense in college football this year with the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and that will be on full display when they light it up against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels. I’m seeing roughly a 62-20 win.
Ole Miss -42.5 vs. Furman; Over 60.5
Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels are the coin flip of college football this year given all the transfer portal additions, but regardless of the chemistry issue, they should have no trouble beating Fordham. Kiffin’s offense will make sure this game hits the over, so that’s your best bet.
Alabama -31.5 vs. Western Kentucky; Over 59.5
Kalen DeBoer’s era with the Crimson Tide kicks off with a nice test at the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. However, this team is awful on defense, and DeBoer has a quarterback in Jalen Milroe who can light it up against lesser competition, so take Bama and the over thanks to UT’s running backs.
Texas A&M -3 vs. Notre Dame; Under 46.5
Marcus Freeman has the Fighting Irish trending downward, and Mike Elko is an Ivy League graduate taking over an Aggies program. A&M will be great long-term, but regardless, this game will be sloppy, so take the Aggies to cover and Elko to turn this into a defensive struggle where it hits the under.
Alabama A&M +47.5 at Auburn; Under 56.5
Back to FCS games, Hugh Freeze’s Tigers are going to figure it out this year, but his track record shows they don’t figure it out early in his second year. That’s why Alabama A&M will cover, and this game will hit the under. However, Auburn will win this game easily and be fine flying under the college football radar.
Southern Miss +28 at Kentucky; Under 49.5
Mark Stoops’ Wildcats always win ugly, and a new quarterback and offensive coordinator won’t change that. Bad weather in Lexington, Ky., will also kill the offensive production of both teams. Because of all of this, take the Golden Eagles to cover and this game to hit the under.
LSU -4 vs. USC; Over 66.5
It’s the coach for your job game of college football. The losing coach between the Tigers and Trojans will be on the hot seat. After two losses in big games like this, you have to believe Brian Kelly’s team is ready for a big time over. That and the elite offenses of both times is why LSU should cover and the game should hit the over.
Bets of the Week
West Virginia +8 vs. Penn State
This line started at over 11 points, and the Mountaineers are now only eight-point underdogs. They play this one in Morgantown, W. Va., and this WVU program was very good last year, so them covering is the best Week 1 spread bet in college football.
Colorado -10 vs. North Dakota State
For all the criticism of Deion Sanders, he’s got a Heisman Trophy caliber quarterback in his son, Shedeur Sanders. When FCS teams pull off upsets, they don’t do it against those FBS teams with elite quarterbacks, so it makes sense to take the Buffaloes in this one.
Texas A&M MONEYLINE vs. Notre Dame
Yes, they are favored, but this weekend of college football doesn’t provide too many chances for upsets. The fact is, the Aggies are better coached and on more of an upward trajectory than the Fighting Irish, and that’s enough for them to win here.
LSU vs. USC, the Over 66.5
Lincoln Riley doesn’t care about defense. Brian Kelly has had trouble correcting his defense. As a result, this game should be points galore. A 41-40 matchup could be the result here. In any case, it should be the most exciting Week 12 college football game.
Miami at Florida, the Under 53.5
We already mentioned the woes of both head coaches, but Billy Napier doesn’t have a high-profile offense no mater what, and Mario Cristobal needs time to adjust to Heisman Trophy candidate Cameron Ward. As a result, this matchup between the Hurricanes and the Gators should hit the Under easily.
