When I was in New York City earlier this week watching the U.S. Open tennis tournament, I ran into some Tennessee fans.
They didn’t want to know if I thought Novak Djokovic would win another grand slam.
They wanted to know: “How do you think the Vols will do this season?”
My answer: “I think they’ll go 9-3, leaning toward 10-2. If they come out of September undefeated, I think they’ll go 10-2 and make the 12-team College Football Playoff.”
To come out of September without a blemish, UT must beat N.C. State and Oklahoma. Then, to go 10-2, the Vols can’t get upset. That means winning at Arkansas and beating Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State at home.
You could lose to Alabama and Georgia and still make the CFP.
Here are my predictions on some team and individual stats for this season:
Quarterback Nico Iamaleava
…will pass for over 3,000 yards with 25 TDs and five interceptions. He will account for 33 TDs. He will not finish in the top five of the Heisman Trophy race, as some have forecast, but he could finish in the top 10. (In 11 games in 2022, Hooker passed for 3,125 yards, had 430 net rushing yards, 27 touchdown passes, two interceptions.)
Dylan Sampson
…will gain over 1,200 yards from scrimmage, score 12 touchdowns and average over 6 yards per carry. His durability is in question, considering he might weigh 200 pounds, but he’ll get more touches than Jaylen Wright because of the unproven depth behind him.
The offense
…will average right at 40 points per game, and unlike last year, will have just one game in which it scores less than 21 points. UT scored 20 or fewer points five times last year. It will score in the 50s four times. The Vols hit half-a-hundred just once last year.
Tennessee
…led the SEC in rushing last year at 204.8 yards per game. But losing Wright and Jabari Small and having four of the top five current running backs suffering injuries within the last 12 months has convinced me UT can’t match last year’s number. But I do think the Vols will average 190 rush yards per game. I’ve got Sampson with about 1,000, Iamaleava with about 400 net and two other running backs exceeding 300.
Squirrel White
…who caught 67 passes last year, will catch 80 passes this year. Bru McCoy, who caught 52 passes in 2022, will match that total. Chris Brazzell, the Tulane transfer, will average over 16 yards per catch. Ramel Keyton averaged 18.3 per catch last year but no other receiver who caught 15-plus passes averaged more than 13.
Last year, Tennessee
…had 1,724 yards after catch, which, surprising to me, was more than the 2022 total of 1,472. UT had three games last year of over 200 yards after catch, none in 2022. But, UT in 2022 had 27 completions of at least 40 yards and 15 of at least 50, compared to last year’s 13 passes of 40+ yards and just five of 50+ yards.
With Nico’s accuracy and ability to connect while on the run, look for UT to get 1,800 yards after catch, 20 completions of 40+ yards and 10 of 50+ yards.
The defense
…will record 45 sacks. (The Vols had 41 last year). Edge rushers James Pearce and Joshua Josephs will combine for 18. UT’s defensive tackles will total at least 12.
UT’s defense
…will hold six foes to 20 or fewer points, including UTC, Kent State and UTEP. The Vols could also hold Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt to 20 or fewer points. (Last year UT held six regular-season opponents to 20 or fewer.)
The defense
…will again rank among the top five in the SEC in points allowed, total yards, run defense, sacks and tackles for loss. Opponents averaged 113.7 rush yards per game last year. That number will be closer to 100 this year, given the sacks and tackles for loss.
The defense
…will allow over 225 passing yards per game. It allowed 221.5 last year. One reason for the increase is foes will get behind and be forced to throw, and UT lost all five starters from last year’s secondary, so building chemistry might take some time.
UT led the nation
…in first-quarter scoring in 2022 (141 points). The number dropped to 110 last year. It will get back to 140 this year and rank among the nation’s leaders.
