What a brutal Week 1 for me in college football. I went 15-18 overall and 0-5 on my best bets, but I’ll prove my integrity. Although I picked the Southern Miss Golden Eagles to cover and the under at the Kentucky Wildcats, I took the loss on the spread with UK leading 31-0 before it was called, but I accepted a push on the over/under since it was called too early.
Now, at 17-21 overall and 2-8 on my best bets, it’s time for Caleb’s Casino to get on a hot streak. As usual, we pick all SEC games and those involving two top 25 teams, and the latter is all SEC games this week. Then we give our five best bets. League play begins with one game this week, so there are 15 SEC and top 25 games.
For us, though, the Vanderbilt Commodores against the Alcorn State Braves, the Samford Bulldogs against the Florida Gators and the Texas A&M Aggies against the McNeese State Cowboys have no lines. As a result, we have 12 official games to pick, and our best bets add two more, so we’ll pick 14 college football games. Let’s get rich.
Michigan +7.5 vs. Texas, Under 42.5
I’ve been saying all offseason the Longhorns are overrated. While the Wolverines are in danger of falling apart under Sherrone Moore, they play this game at home, and their ball control offense will force Steve Sarkisian’s team into an ugly game. As a result, take them to cover, and take the under. Avoid the moneyline, though.
Arkansas +7.5 at Oklahoma State, Under 62.5
Maybe I misread the Hogs. The Razorbacks looked elite under Sam Pittman and Bobby Petrino, dropping 70 last week, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys struggled in their opener against an FCS foe. While this is an overreaction to week 1 in college football, OSU’s struggles look real, so Arkansas covers, and the game hits the under.
Georgia -53.5 vs. Tennessee Tech; Under 62.5
Yes, I’m going this crazy to suggest the Bulldogs can win by over 53 points but the game hits the under. Kirby Smart doesn’t run a program that scores 63 or more points typically, but UGA also won’t give up any points to Tennessee Tech, so covering a 53.5-point spread while hitting the under is the best bet.
Auburn -13 vs. Cal; Over 53.5
The Tigers beat the Golden Bears 14-10 last year in California. Hugh Freeze’s offense now seems to be taking off, though, and the defensive structures haven’t changed. Meanwhile, this game is in Auburn. As a result, Auburn wins in a blowout. Cal won’t be ready for the home field advantage. They’ll score some late for the game to hit the over when it’s already in hand.
Kentucky -8.5 vs. South Carolina; Under 42.5
By far the worst team in the SEC right now, the Gamecocks are about to implode under Shane Beamer. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have a very efficient west coast offense and a solid defense, as usual. Mark Stoops’ team will be the first to humiliate South Carolina, which barely beat Old Dominion, and they’ll do it with defense. I’m seeing 28-0, so take Kentucky to cover and the under.
Ole Miss -43 vs. MTSU; Under 62.5
Lane Kiffin went for a statement game last week, dropping 76 points on an FCS program. He’s going to go out of his way to make Jaxson Dart look like the best quarterback in college football, so the Rebels cover again. However, I don’t think they cross 60 against an FBS school. Their defense will shut down the Blue Raiders enough for this game to hit the under.
South Florida +31 at Alabama; Over 63.5
Alex Golesh is building a strong program with the Bulls, and they played the Crimson Tide tough last year. True, this one’s in Tuscaloosa, but USF is significantly better, and Bama, despite looking good last week, still doesn’t have Nick Saban. I’m seeing Golesh and Kalen DeBoer, two offensive minds, make this a shootout, so take the over. Bama wins easily, but they have to pull away, which is why USF covers.
Missouri -34.5 vs. Buffalo; Over 51.5
So far, Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers are picking up right where they left off last year, and now they go from an FCS team to a low level FBS team. I see enough from them to think they can cover the 34.5-point spread over the Buffalo Bulls. They will leave their starters in a bit longer, so it’ll be enough for them to get into the 40s, and a Buffalo score pushes the game to hit the over.
LSU -51.5 vs. Nicholls; Over 61.5
Brian Kelly and the Tigers aren’t in a big game. As a result, they are perfectly positioned to put up big stats and look like they have the best quarterback in college football in Garrett Nussmeier. LSU dominates Nicholls and crosses the 60-point threshold themselves, and the game will also hit the over because of that.
Tennessee -10 vs. N.C. State; Over 60.5
This line opened at Tennessee -5.5 and has now moved to Tennessee -10, a dramatic movement in college football. As a result, Vegas clearly thinks they messed up, and that’s enough for me to say the Vols will cover. Their offense looks amazing with Nico Iamaleava, so they’ll do enough scoring to push this game close to the over, and the Wolfpack will finish it off.
Oklahoma -28 vs. Houston; Under 49.5
There is still plenty of evidence that the Sooners will collapse under Brent Venables but it won’t happen this year. The Cougars are a horrendous team who lost to the UNLV Rebels last week, and OU did dominate the Temple Owls. I think that carries over to this week, in a typical Venables game where OU wins 42-0. That’s why they cover but this game hits the under.
Mississippi State +5.5 at Arizona State; Over 58.5
Jeff Lebby was quietly the best hire in college football this offseason, and his team covered while the game hit the over last week. The Bulldogs have a cutting-edge offense that nobody knows about yet, and out west, that will be enough to catch the Sun Devils off guard and turn this game into a shootout. MSU keeps this a game while it hits the over.
Best Bets of the Week
Kentucky -8.5 vs. South Carolina
UK may have its best team under Mark Stoops with Bush Hamden as offensive coordinator running the west coast offense while the defense stays dominant. I can’t stress enough that South Carolina may be the worst Power Five team in college football. As a result, Kentucky covering this is an easy call. They win by two touchdowns.
Colorado +7 at Nebraska
Everybody is predicting the Cornhuskers to dominate at home, and the Buffaloes seem to be in disarray. While I do believe in Matt Rhule and have questions about Deion Sanders, Coach Prime’s son, Shedeur, is too good at quarterback, and Travis Hunter is too athletic for Nebraska to win by more than a touchdown. Are we all forgetting CU dominated them last year?
Mississippi State MONEYLINE at Arizona State
Welcome to the upset of the week in college football. After making my case for MSU to keep it close with ASU on the road, I’m going all in and taking them to pull off the upset outright. This will be the game in which Lebby becomes a household name in the SEC, and he will prove just how dangerous of a program he is building.
South Florida at Alabama, the Over 63.5
Yes, the over call I’m making for USF and Bama is another easy one. Alabama scored 63 last week, and while USF only scored 48 against the Bethune-Cookman Wildcats, it was all before the fourth quarter. The DeBoer air raid vs. the Josh Heupel offense run by his protege in Golesh should lead to points galoe all game.
Iowa State at Iowa, the Under 35.5
Who in the world would pick the over in this one? We were all shocked that the Hawkeyes dropped 40 last week on an FCS school. The Cyclones, meanwhile, only beat the North Dakota Fighting Hawks 21-3. This is the worst offensive rivalry in college football. Only once in the last five years has this game gone over 35 total points. Take the under.
