Our really bad start to the 2024 college football season continues. We went 10-17 during Week 2 and 0-5 on our best bets, bringing us to 27-38 overall and 2-13 on our best bets. It’s time to recover. With 13 SEC games and one top 25 game plus three extra games for our best bets, we’re betting on 17 games this week.
Kansas State -7 vs. Arizona; Over 60.5
Sure, they had to hold off the Tulane Green Wave last week, but that’s a really good Group of Five college football team, and they faced them on the road. The Kansas State Wildcats are still the Big 12 favorites, and in this Friday night top 25 matchup, they should handle the Arizona Wildcats with their offense, so take the over.
Wisconsin +16 vs. Alabama; Under 50.5
Kalen DeBoer and Jalen Milroe are still not a match made in heaven, and a red-hot fourth quarter over the USF Bulls doesn’t change that. Visiting a program led by Luke Fickell, a defensive wizard, will expose that. The Wisconsin Badgers always like to make games ugly, and that’ll be the case here.
LSU -6.5 at South Carolina; Over 48.5
Sure, Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks restored faith in them by beating the Kentucky Wildcats 31-6, and the Tigers have looked awful so far, but with College GameDay in town, this seems like the game Brian Kelly and Garrett Nussmeier put it together. Also, South Carolina benefitted last week by facing the worst offensive line in college football, so LSU covers, and Nussmeier hits the over.
Missouri -15.5 vs. Boston College; Over 53.5
Kudos to the Eagles for beating the Florida State Seminoles, but the Missouri Tigers have looked superb so far this year. As a result, they’ll use their highly efficient offense to dominate in this game. Boston College still has an offense as well, so the over is the best play here, but Mizzou will cover as well.
Tulane +13 at Oklahoma; Under 46.5
Brent Venables’ team has major issues on offense, and the Green Wave remain a very dangerous program. As a result, it’s hard to see them losing by two full touchdowns, and it’ll be because the Sooners have trouble scoring for the second straight week, which is why this game hits the under.
Texas A&M -3 at Florida; Over 47.5
Sure, the Gators had a nice rebound win and looked impressive over the Samford Bulldogs, but they’re still a bad team, and that’ll be on display in this game as they face the Texas A&M Aggies. Mike Elko’s team will blow Billy Napier’s team out of the water, and their offense finally comes alive, so take the over.
Arkansas -23.5 vs. UAB; Under 61.5
If not for Sam Pittman’s gross clock mismanagement, the Razorbacks would easily be 2-0. However, they have an elite team right now and are highly efficient, so the Hogs shouldn’t need clock management to win this game against the Blazers by at least 24 points. They also won’t allow enough scoring for this game to hit the over.
Ole Miss -21 at Wake Forest; Over 63.5
Lane Kiffin and the Rebels continue to run up the score on everybody, and that’s not going to change this weekend as they face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. He’s on a mission to deliver the Heisman Trophy to Jaxson Dart, and that means Ole Miss wins by more than three touchdowns and may hit the over themselves.
Texas -35.5 vs. UTSA; Under 55.5
Look, there are still reasons to not believe in the Longhorns, even after dominating the Michigan Wolverines, but the UTSA Roadrunners won’t be the team that tests them. As a result, they will cover the 35.5 point spread, and as they showed last week, they’ll do it with their defense, which is why the under is the play here.
Vanderbilt -10.5 at Georgia State; Over 44
It’s time to start believing in the Commodores as the Cinderella team of college football. Sure, they face the Panthers on the road, but they have looked good enough so far to be the significantly inferior team. Clark Lea’s program scores a lot now too with Diego Pavia, so the over is the obvious play here.
Georgia -23.5 at Kentucky; Over 43.5
That Wildcats offensive line will get destroyed by such an elite Bulldogs defensive line. With that mismatch, UK isn’t getting past midfield, which is why UGA will cover this 23.5-point spread. The over is the play here simply because the Dawgs will have so many short fields that they’ll score a good bit.
Auburn -28 vs. New Mexico; Under 60.5
Perhaps this is an overreaction to their loss to the Cal Golden Bears, but the Tigers still have some issues to work out on offense, which is why this game hits the Under. However, their defense is solid, and the Lobos are awful everywhere, so they’ll still manage to cover. We’re looking at a 41-0 type of win.
Mississippi State -10.5 vs. Toledo; Over 57.5
Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs began to find themselves late last week at the Arizona State Sun Devils, and that momentum will carry over as they return home to face the Toledo Rockets. Look for MSU to win this one running away at home, so take them to cover, and they have the cutting-edge offense of college football now, so take the over.
Tennessee -49 vs. Kent State; Over 62.5
Josh Heupel and the Vols may well hang 80 in this game. They have won their first two matchups 69-3 and 51-10 and have yet to surrender a defensive touchdown. Meanwhile, the Kent State Golden Flashes may be the worst team UT has ever faced, so a historic blowout could be on the horizon for this program.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK
Texas A&M -3 at Florida
How is this line so low? This is an overreaction to A&M losing its first game to a team that turned out to be overrated in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Still, Florida is as bad as you can be, regardless of what they did to Samford, so the Aggies winning a blowout should be an easy play here.
Oregon State +16.5 vs. Oregon
Through two games, the Ducks have looked mediocre, and the Beavers don’t seemed to have missed a beat. They also are in a rivalry game where anything can happen, they’re playing at home, and there’s a desire to punish Oregon for leaving the Pac-12 and breaking it up. Altogether, this is enough for Oregon State to cover this spread.
Memphis MONEYLINE at Florida State
With the Seminoles having little to play for after two losses and the Memphis Tigers having a spot in the College Football Playoff to play for as the top Group of Five team, the roles are flipped where the Power Five team has more to lose. As a result, even with FSU at home, Memphis will respond to the pressure with intensity, and they match up well, so they’ll pull off the upset.
Vanderbilt at Georgia State, the Over 44.5
Again, Diego Pavia is looking great with Vandy, and new offensive coordinator Tim Beck loves to throw it all over the field, so you have to expect points here. Taking that into account, they are likely to hit the over in this game alone, but if they don’t, Georgia State is bound to score something.
Troy at Iowa, Under 39.5
Last week, the Hawkeyes burned us with their game against the Iowa State Cyclones going over. However, Kirk Ferentz’s team returns to facing lower-level talent with low morale, and they are facing a bad offensive team themselves in the Troy Trojans, so once again, the Under is the play.
