Let’s begin with this. I think Tennessee will make the College Football Playoff with a 10-2 record. However, I have my doubts based on where this season is going.

There was a common notion among fans and analysts that the Vols would be a cinch to make the new 12-team playoff format if they, basically, held serve. That meant the Vols needed to win all of their games except the mega-bouts against Alabama and Georgia, the two games in which Tennessee will likely be underdogs.

Well, that might not be good enough considering there are five teams among the top six schools in the AP Poll. Fighting for that final SEC spot could be tough.

No one knows what the College Football Playoff Committee will do when it comes time to pick the final 12 teams that will play for a national championship. The common belief is that four SEC teams will make the playoff and, possibly, five. If the Vols are on the cusp, they could be snubbed, which happened in 2022 in the four-team playoff. I’m sure you remember that one.

With the same record, Tennessee was ranked behind Alabama in the final College Football Playoff ranking headed into the playoffs. Both teams were 10-2, but the Vols had beaten the Crimson Tide head-to-head. No matter. That was just one game. See you next year Vols!

So what happens if a similar situation unfolds this season, except for a late embarrassing loss to South Carolina. Let’s say the Vols go 10-2 with losses to two teams, Georgia and Alabama, that make the playoffs. Then, the Vols are surely in, right? Well, maybe not. Why? Look at their schedule.

There’s nothing the Vols can do about their SEC schedule. The conference sets that up. Moreover, Tennessee’s SEC schedule is tough enough to warrant a playoff bid. However, the non-conference schedule is nothing to brag about compared to its opponents.

The Vols have played – and blew out – Chattanooga and Kent State. Tennessee will play UTEP later this year and, likely, blow them the Miners out of the ground. However, none of those games are worth bragging about. 

The Vols also played North Carolina State, which seemed like it would be a significant win before the season began. Now, the Wolfpack seems to be fighting like wolves just to stay afloat at 2-2.

The Vols signature victory, if things shake out at 10-2 with only losses to Alabama and Georgia, could be their win against Oklahoma, which was ranked No. 15, on Saturday. However, that win could soon loose its luster.

Oklahoma has a schedule that looks like someone in the SEC office had a grudge against the Sooners. In the coming weeks, Oklahoma will play at No. 1 Texas, at No. 6 Ole Miss, at No. 11 Missouri, host No. 4 Alabama and play No. 14 LSU in Baton Rouge, La. Ugh. 

Oklahoma could lose all five of those games, but let’s say they just lose four of its toughest matchups. The Sooners would then be 7-5 if they hold serve against Auburn, South Carolina and Maine. 

That means the Oklahoma win could be the best victory on Tennessee’s schedule, which includes Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State in the SEC, in addition to the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs. Beating a team with a slightly above average record wouldn’t win any tiebreakers amongst those in the College Football committee. Moreover, I’m not sure the Sooners can finish 7-5 with their record and a quarterback controversy.

I once thought Tennessee would get the benefit of the doubt because of the style it plays, hammering opponents by 50 points and laughing all the way to the end zone. Now, the Vols play with a different approach at times. 

While I think it makes the Vols a better football team to have an elite defense rather than a high-flying passing attack, it’s not as scintillating for television executives who surely have some say in the matter.

If the Vols go 10-2 and are among a group of five SEC teams with the same records, Neyland Stadium could be Tennessee’s saving grace. Those same television executives that surely rule the College Football Committee would love to see a home game in Knoxville given the panoramic setting that would unfold.

That saving grace could be reason enough for the College Football Playoff to include the Vols, whose non-conference schedule is an embarrassment. The other SEC teams that will be considered for a college football playoff spot have all manned-up outside the SEC while Tennessee has chosen to play children in some of its non-conference games.

Georgia opened the season with a victory over Clemson and will finish the season with Georgia Tech. That should be two Power Four wins. Alabama travelled to Wisconsin and won. That’s far better than beating the Wolfpack.

Texas hammered Colorado State, which is 2-2, in the season opener. Missouri beat Boston College, which is 3-1. Both of those wins could end up looking like better wins than the Vols’ non-conference victory over North Carolina State, which is 2-2 and has quarterback issues.

Ole Miss may be in the same unenviable position as Tennessee at the end of the season. The Rebels’ non-conference schedule is also filled with play toys. Their biggest win, however, is against Wake Forest, which is at least in the Power Five, and got hammered by Ole Miss 40-6 earlier this season.

Tennessee should make the College Football Playoff at 10-2. However, there’s no guarantee. The Vols need to finish 11-1 or better to insure that they make it into the postseason that matters and not a bowl game that doesn’t. 

If not, Neyland Stadium could come into play. I guess you can thank Pilot for keeping the building upright and giving the Vols another avenue to win a national title.