Caleb’s Casino: Georgia, Colorado FAIL to cover in Week 7 college football BEST BETS

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Talk about not finishing. We started last week red-hot, at 7-3 overall, but a horrendous finish had us end up at .500. Justin Wilcox’s Cal Golden Bears blowing a 35-10 lead to the Miami Hurricanes pushed us from 9-7 and 3-2 on our best bets to 8-8 and 2-3 respectively. In fact, three of our fails came in the final minute of the fourth quarter. College football is wild.

Now, we are 68-91 overall and 13-22 on our best bets, but we aren’t quitting yet. There’s still half a season to play, and while this year has been the most unpredictable in a long time, there is plenty of time to catch back up. With 13 SEC teams playing, 12 against each other, and another top five matchup, we’re required to pick eight games. Our best bets involve 11 more games, so we dive back in.

SEC and top 25 bets

South Carolina +21 at Alabama, Over 49.5

The Crimson Tide are probably still reeling after last week’s loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores, and the Gamecocks are being overlooked after a 27-3 blowout loss. As a result, they’ll catch them off-guard early with a lot of scoring, which will require Kalen DeBoer’s team to fight back. Bama wins comfortably in the second half, but the required scoring is why they don’t cover and the game hits the over.

Missouri -27 at UMASS, Over 54.5

Although Mizzou may have been the most fraudulent college football team that was undefeated heading into last week, they face one of the two worst teams in all of FBS in the UMASS Minutemen this week. Eli Drinkwitz’s team still has an elite offense, so they’ll score at will in this game despite being on the road. Take them to cover and hit the over themselves.

Texas -14.5 vs. Oklahoma, Over 48.5

Injuries at quarterback for the Longhorns and a scary Sooners defense should make this year’s Red River Shootout a game, but Steve Sarkisian’s team is significantly more talented overall. OU has found an offense with Michael Hawkins Jr., so the over is the best bet in this game, but Texas is honestly going to cover with a late score as well.

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Mississippi State +34 at Georgia, Under 55.5

Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs are only going to get better as time goes on. I’m committed to that thought. They are facing a Georgia team led by Kirby Smart who complained about the fans after last week’s win over the Auburn Tigers and had another arrest this week. That combined with MSU coming off of a bye is why this all Bulldogs matchup will see MSU cover.

LSU +3.5 vs. Ole Miss, Over 62

I see points galore in this game. It’ll be one of those SEC matchups that make college football so exciting, so take the over. After an early-season loss to the USC Trojans, Brian Kelly’s Tigers have methodically fought back to get to 4-1, and they are coming off a bye and playing at home in a night game. As a result, I love them to not just cover but win outright, as Lane Kiffin’s Rebels still haven’t had their bye.

Ohio State -3 at Oregon, Over 53.5

All signs should point to the Buckeyes getting upset by the Ducks, as in the new Big Ten, teams that have traveled more than two time zones to play have lost all but one game. However, Ryan Day’s team is too talented, and despite the Ducks improving in recent weeks, OSU will take this one seriously, so they will cover, and with both offenses humming, the game hits the over.

Kentucky -13.5 vs. Vanderbilt, Over 44.5

There’s no way after pulling off the upset of the year in college football that Vandy is able to maintain its momentum. Mark Stoops and the Wildcats are coming off a bye after they pulled off their own upset, at Ole Miss, and they are playing this one at home, so I’ve actually got them winning pretty comfortably. The over/under is too low, though, so while it could be a defensive fight, still take the over.

Tennessee -14 vs. Florida, Over 56

After a shocking loss on the road to the Arkansas Razorbacks in which the offense looked lost, the Vols return home this week to face a Florida Gators team with major issues on defense. Tragically, UF will be distracted by the impact of Hurricane Milton. Josh Heupel’s offenses are always way better at home, so the Vols cover in this one with that side of the ball, hitting the over in the process.

College Football BEST Week 7 BETS

Kansas State -3 at Colorado

Unpredictable Big 12 play has been the underrated story of college football so far this year, but the Colorado Buffaloes’ magical turnaround under Deion Sanders comes to an end this week. The Kansas State Wildcats have too much power on the ground, and CU is too soft on the defensive line to stop it. That’s why they cover.

Mississippi State +34 at Georgia

Again, all the distractions facing UGA will make it too hard for them to cover. MSU, we forget was in some games at the beginning of the year, in particular the Arizona State Sun Devils. They play hard in the second half of games, and despite this one being in Athens, Georgia will likely call things off in the second half of this one, allowing MSU to repeat that type of play and cover.

South Carolina at Alabama, the Over 49.5

Nobody could look at South Carolina’s defense, or Alabama’s offense for that matter, and think that part of the game won’t get it 75 percent of the way toward hitting the over. Then you add the fact that Bama has its own issues on defense and Shane Beamer’s offense is bound to improve over last week. As a result, the over is an easy play here.

Arizona at BYU, the Under 48.5

This largely has to do with the Wildcats’ lack of scoring and the Cougars’ elite defense. Arizona averages just 27 points a game, and BYU holds foes to under 16 points a game. Playing at home, the gap between those averages is likely to favor Arizona. It’s not like BYU blows you away with their offense, though, averaging just 33 points a game, so this is the best under in college football for Week 7.

SUPERDOG

Arizona State over Utah

You can go with LSU for the safer superdog, but the payout for this one is better, so go big or go home. The Utes being favored by six is the worst line in college football. They are headed on the road in a Friday might matchup to face a Big 12 team with one loss, and while they do return Cam Rising, he will be too rusty for them to do what they need to do. As a result, they’ll fall in a sloppy game.

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