While things have been overly pessimistic, in my opinion, among Tennessee fans, the Vols are still in prime position to make the College Football Playoff. That’s not me saying that. That’s a fact.
Tennessee is even money by most oddsmakers to make the inaugural 12-team field and have a 46-percent chance of making the playoffs. However, all of that is based on projections. If Tennessee can beat Alabama, which is a 1 1/2-point favorite against the Vols, they’ll likely be favored in their remaining games with the exception of the Georgia game on Nov. 16.
The Vols could possibly even lose to the Bulldogs and make the College Football Playoffs – if Tennessee beats Alabama on Saturday. No, there’s not much room for error, but if the Vols can win out, they’ll certainly make the College Football Playoff. Despite the frustrations surrounding Tennessee’s program, the Vols still control their own destiny. That starts with the No. 11 Vols hosting No. 7 Alabama on Saturday at 3:30 EST in Neyland Stadium.
Here are four reasons why the Vols can beat Bama and stay on course for a playoff berth:
Alabama’s Defense Part I
The Crimson Tide is 14th in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing 126 yards per game. The Vols, behind running back Dylan Sampson and a tough interior offensive line, average 246 yards per game rushing. It may be old school, but the Vols can beat Bama up front if they decide to establish the running game against the Crimson Tide. That’s something to lean on.
The Vols are a running-team first under Tennessee coach Josh Heupel. That needs to be the main focus this week against the Crimson Tide.
Alabama’s Defense Part II
While Alabama has been bad against the run, the Crimson Tide is pretty average against the pass. Bama is tied with Auburn for eighth in the SEC with 213 yards passing allowed per game. Moreover, Alabama has averaged just 2.3 sacks per game, which isn’t overwhelming and tied for seventh in the SEC. Arkansas is one of three teams that is tied with Bama for sacks per game and we all know what happened in that game. However, much of that was Tennessee getting outfoxed schematically.
If that doesn’t happen on Saturday, the Vols should be able to protect quarterback Nico Iamaleava. I’m also predicting that Tennessee will have some extra help for their hapless offensive tackles that struggled mightily last week against the Gators. Surely, there will be a tight end or two or a running back or two to help Tennessee’s tackles on passing downs.
Alabama has issues on the offensive line
The Crimson Tide has switched up its right offensive guard position throughout the season with Jaeden Roberts and Geno VanDeMark both playing this season and splitting reps. That’s not a good sign. Moreover, the constant changing has led to communication issues for the Crimson Tide. While right tackle Elijah Pritchett has improved, he has struggled against speed rushers.
It’s certainly worth noting that Tennessee EDGE rusher James Pearce Jr., is playing at a high level and often lines up against opposing right tackles. This could be a huge mismatch in the Vols’ favor.
Alabama has chemistry issues
Let’s start with the X’s and O’s aspect of this assessment. Alabama has two receivers that have missed playing time due to injury this season: Kendrick Law and Kobe Prentice. Both are “probable” to play this week against the Vols, per Bama’s participation report. Still, they’ll have to fit in with the rest of Alabama’s other receivers. The Vols should have a decided advantage against whatever receivers Bama plays on Saturday considering cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III are playing at such a high level. Then, there’s the unknown.
Alabama defensive back Malachi Moore showed his frustrations in Bama’s loss to Vanderbilt in which he shoved Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, chucked his mouthguard, kicked the football, which drew an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, and seemingly refused to come off of the field when Bama’s coaching staff tried to get him out of the game. Yet, there’s more.
I’ve been told my multiple sources that things aren’t all “peachy” in Tuscaloosa. That doesn’t mean Bama will be easy to beat. The Crimson Tide is still very talented. However, if the Vols can keep the game close, frustrations could undermine Alabama if things aren’t going their way.
Prediction: Tennessee, 23, Alabama 16
