Alabama is flawed. The Crimson Tide’s defense has been dismal the last three games.
Tennessee is flawed. The Vols’ offense has been offensive the past three games.
Yet, both teams are ranked in the top 10.
Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC) has fallen from No. 1 to No. 7.
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) has dropped from No. 4 to No. 10.
In what some consider a College Football Playoff elimination game, Tennessee hosts Alabama on the Third Saturday in October in a pivotal SEC encounter. Kickoff is 3:37 pm on ABC.
Alabama’s defensive downfall has been a surprise. After playing well in the first three games, the Tide allowed 34 points and 519 yards in a win over Georgia. It gave up 40 points and 418 yards in a stunning defeat to Vanderbilt. South Carolina’s pedestrian offense garnered 25 points in a two-point Tide win.
Georgia passed for 439 yards and three touchdowns against a Bama secondary that lost three NFL caliber defensive backs (two to the pros, one to Ohio State).
Vanderbilt converted 12 of 18 third downs and ran out the final 2:46 against the Tide.
South Carolina, not known for its aerial assault, hit 24 of 32 passes (75%) for 242 yards.
Alabama’s pass defense ranks 62nd in the nation and its total defense ranks 55, one spot behind Vanderbilt.
On the flip side, Tennessee’s offense, which averaged 64 points against three lesser teams to start the season, has averaged 20.7 points in three SEC games, one a 19-14 loss at Arkansas. If not for an overtime win against Florida, UT’s offense would be averaging less than 20 points in SEC play.
Tennessee’s well-paid offensive tackles have played poorly. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has not been particularly accurate and seems to be impacted by pressure. And the receivers and tight ends have not stepped up in the passing game.
Another factor: Tennessee has not been productive on first downs. Against Oklahoma, UT ran 26 first downs for 52 yards, or 2.0 per snap. Against Arkansas, the Vols gained 102 yards on 26 first downs, but had just 16 on eight snaps in a scoreless first half. The first down numbers were better against Florida (28 for 138) but 14 first downs went for 3 or fewer yards.
The lack of first down efficiency seems to have slowed down the Vols’ up-tempo attack.
On offense, Alabama has a strong 1-2 punch with Milroe and freshman sensation Ryan Williams at wide receiver.
Milroe leads the SEC in passing efficiency, he’s completing 72.7% of his passes and his 35 career touchdown passes have averaged 35.9 yards. While he has improved greatly as a passer, he is just as dangerous with his legs. He had 117 rushing yards against Georgia and over 70 rushing yards against Western Kentucky and Wisconsin. He has 11 rushing touchdowns, second in the SEC.
But against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, Milroe was held to 46 yards on 25 attempts as both teams harassed him with a barrage of blitzes. And he gained just 2 yards on 12 runs against South Florida.
Williams has caught 23 passes for 576 yards and a team-high six touchdowns – four more than the next Tide receiver. He is averaging 25 yards per catch. He caught the game-winner against Georgia and has been a game-breaker for the Crimson Tide.
Tennessee doesn’t have a 1-2 punch. It has running back Dylan Sampson. Sampson leads the SEC in rushing at 116.5 yards per game. He also leads in rushing touchdowns with 15 – three off the school record.
Here are five keys for Tennessee against Alabama:
Contain Milroe
Blitzing worked for the last two Bama opponents. In the pass rush, you can’t let him break contain. And when he scrambles, you need a spy. The loss of UT middle linebacker Keenan Pili could be significant. We’ll see if backup Jeremiah Telander is up to the task. Milroe had three runs of at least 10 yards against UT last year. If he does that again, the Vols are in trouble.
Limit Williams
He had just four catches for 32 yards against the Gamecocks. UT’s best cover corner is Jermod McCoy. McCoy v. Williams is a matchup to watch.
Outrush Alabama
The Tide is 16-1 in the last 17 games against the Vols. In all 17 games, a Tide running back had more yards than a UT running back. And nine times, the Tide had a 100-yard rusher. If Sampson can emerge as the leading rusher in the game, that enhances UT’s chances.
Exploit Alabama’s secondary
A unit that gives up 439 yards in one game and 75% efficiency is vulnerable. But the Vols have managed just 168, 156 and 194 passing yards in three SEC games. UT’s passing game must click it in gear for the Vols to have a chance.
Avoid penalties, turnovers and sacks
In about half of the drives that have stalled for UT in SEC games, those were the culprits. In five first-half possessions in a scoreless first half against Florida, two turnovers, sacks and a penalty stopped four drives. UT’s margin for error on offense is such that it can’t afford a mistake.
Prediction: I don’t trust Tennessee’s offense to find its footing against Alabama, despite the Tide’s defensive struggles. And in a close game, I lean toward the team with the best quarterback.
Alabama 27, Tennessee 24.
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tennessee 35 bama 24