Tennessee has survived a shocking defeat, beaten two key rivals and is now in prime position to make the College Football Playoff based on every possible analytic one would assume that would be taken into account when the all-deciding committee announces its first round of rankings on Nov. 5.
Here are four reasons why the Vols would make the College Football Playoff if the teams were decided this week. Of course, the announcement for the inaugural College Football Playoff is still a couple of weeks away, but the Vols are in lined up to make the playoffs even if they lose to Georgia and win the rest of the games in which they’ll play.
ESPN has questioned whether or not a 10-2 record would definitely get the Vols in the playoffs, but are still giving Tennessee a 7th best probability of 67%. With so many fallible teams within the conference, Tennessee would seemingly be in line to make the playoffs even with a loss to Georgia.
Here are four reasons why:
SEC Standings
The Vols are now fourth in the SEC standings at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the SEC. Texas A&M is ranked atop the SEC standings because they haven’t lost a conference game yet. The Aggies are 6-1 and 4-0 in the SEC. LSU also hasn’t lost a conference game at 3-0 and are 6-1 in the SEC. Then, Georgia is ranked third in the SEC with a 6-1 overall record and is 4-1 in the SEC after beating Texas on Saturday.
The waters get muddied after that. Tennessee is 6-1 and 3-1 in the SEC. Missouri and Texas are both 6-1 and 2-1 in the SEC. Then, there’s Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt, at 5-2 and 2-1 in the SEC. Bama’s chances of making the College Football Playoff are pretty much over after losing to the Vols and Vandy. The Crimson Tide is 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the SEC.
Most believe the SEC will get at least four teams in the College Football Playoff. However, five is still a possibility.
Traditional Rankings
The Vols moved up four spots in the Associated Press Poll to No. 7 and two spots to No. 8 in the Coaches’ Poll. That makes the Vols the third highest ranked SEC team in the nation in the AP Poll and fourth-highest ranked SEC team in the Coaches’ Poll. Neither poll directly affects the pending College Football Playoff rankings, but it should be good for Tennessee fans to know they’re respected nationally.
Analytics
Tennessee is sixth best in the nation in ESPN’s College Football Power Index, which takes into account all teams’ schedules headed into this point in the season and excludes recency bias. Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss, despite having two losses, are ranked ahead of the Vols in ESPN’s College Football Power Index, which predicts the Vols will finish the regular season with 10 wins.
What’s left
The Vols probably can’t slip up against any team other than Georgia and expect to make the College Football Playoffs since Tennessee won’t likely have any quality wins over non-conference teams, such as Chattanooga, Kent State and UTEP, which lies on the schedule on Nov. 23. The Miners are 1-6.
The victory against North Carolina State was thought to be a quality win as the Wolfpack was ranked in the Top 25 when it played the Vols, but N.C. State has since stumbled to a 4-4 record. Other than Georgia, the Vols don’t currently have a ranked opponent on their schedule.
