There is one common theme in the Commonwealth each fall.
Tennessee beats Kentucky.
The Vols have won 36 of the last 39 meetings in this series. Since 1985, they have won five times by a field goal or less. They’ve won twice in overtime, once in four overtimes. They’ve won both times when coach Mark Stoops had a 10-win season. They had a string of five straight games of scoring at least 56 points against the Wildcats, starting in 1996.
You could argue that Florida has Tennessee’s number when the rivals play in Gainesville, just as you can argue Tennessee has Kentucky’s number when they play anywhere.
There’s no reason to think this Saturday’s game (7:45, SEC Network) at Neyland Stadium will be any different.
Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) is ranked No. 7 in the country and has won back-to-back games against Florida and Alabama.
Kentucky (3-6, 1-5) is coming off consecutive defeats to unranked and underachieving Florida and Auburn.
After strong showings against Georgia and Ole Miss, Kentucky’s defense has imploded.
Florida defeated the Wildcats 48-20 as quarterback DJ Lagway averaged 37 yards on seven completions and freshman running back Jaden Baugh rushed for five touchdowns.
Auburn beat Kentucky in Lexington 24-10 as the Tigers racked up 500 total yards and running back Jarquez Hunter rushed for a career-high 278 yards and scored two touchdowns.
Stoops’ Kentucky teams are usually solid on defense and pedestrian on offense. Now, they’re just pedestrian on both sides of the ball.
Kentucky ranks last in the SEC in points per game and passing yards per game and 15th in total offense. The Wildcats rank in the bottom 20 in the nation in each of those three categories.
The defense, meanwhile, is 21st in the nation in total yards allowed but has been vulnerable the last two contests. And the run defense ranks 52nd .
If Hunter can rush for 12 yards per carry against Kentucky, you wonder what kind of numbers Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson will post, considering he leads the SEC in rushing and touchdowns. In fact, Sampson’s 17 rushing scores are one off the UT school record set by Gene McEver in 1929.
While Kentucky has a good receiving corps, led by Dane Key and Barion Brown, Brock Vandagriff, the five-star transfer from Georgia, has been a major disappointment. He is averaging only 155 passing yards per game while completing 57% of his passes for a mere six touchdowns and five interceptions. His pass efficiency rating ranks among the worst in the SEC.
Vandagriff, who has been sacked 17 times, has had just two 200-yard passing games. He’s had six games with less than 170 yards and three with 120 or less. He was 3 for 10 for 30 yards in a loss to South Carolina.
Tennessee’s defense leads the SEC in points allowed, run defense and total defense.
It’s hard to imagine Vandagriff having much success against UT’s defense. And it’s hard to imagine Kentucky running backs – the top two backs have 668 combined yards — having much success on the ground.
If Alabama — with a running quarterback in Jalen Milroe — could muster on 75 rushing yards against Tennessee, can Kentucky get to 75?
It’s doubtful.
Kentucky’s only SEC win was an upset on the road against then-No. 5 Ole Miss.
That proves Kentucky can be dangerous.
But the Wildcats have proven nothing in the last two games.
Prediction: Tennessee 30, Kentucky 13.
