If the college football season ended today, Tennessee would be in the 12-team playoff.
That’s what the initial CFP ranking told us Tuesday night.
The Vols (7-1, 4-1 SEC) were ranked No. 7 and seeded No. 8.
But the season isn’t over. And UT has four more hurdles – actually three – to make what promises to be a wild tournament in December and January.
The first hurdle is Mississippi State, which might be the worst team in the league. The Bulldogs are 2-7, 0-6 in SEC play. They can’t stop the run or the pass or rush the passer. State ranks last in the SEC in run defense, total defense, scoring defense, pass defense efficiency and sacks.
They can’t do much of anything except compete and complete passes.
The Bulldogs competed in a 41-31 loss to Georgia, a 45-28 loss to Florida, a 34-24 loss to Texas A&M.
But the defense has also allowed at least 41 points in four games.
In SEC games only, State has been a better passing team than Tennessee. The Bulldogs average 248.2 pass yards per game to UT’s 201.4, 7.48 yards per completion to UT’s 7.09, and has nine touchdown passes to UT’s three.
It might surprise you that State true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. has a better pass efficiency rating (133.7) in SEC games than does UT’s Nico Iamaleava (126.6).
Van Buren had the most TD passes in SEC games in October than any league quarterback (eight).
It might also surprise you that State averages more total yards in SEC games than UT (399.4 to 374.8) and more points in league games (24.2 to 22.8).
I would suspect those numbers will change after Saturday’s game at Neyland Stadium (7 pm, ESPN).
I would also expect Iamaleava to have a field day against a secondary that allows (in SEC play) 318.4 yards per game and opponents to complete 78.3% of their passes.
Iamaleava may have turned the corner. He was outstanding against Kentucky, completing 28 of 38 passes for 292 yards and one touchdown. If not for drops, he could have had over 400 yards and four touchdowns.
He also played a solid second half against Alabama.
He should pass for well over 300 yards against State – if his receivers don’t drop passes. He has been more decisive and more accurate and more confident in his last six quarters of play.
Van Buren’s favorite target is wideout Kevin Coleman Jr., who leads the SEC in league play only with 7.2 receptions per game: He has 36 catches for 368 yards and three scores.
Look for UT corner Jermod McCoy to cover Coleman.
State is coming off a 45-10 victory over UMass. The Bulldogs were without three defensive line starters as the Minutemen controlled the line of scrimmage in the first half. It’s not known how many of those D-linemen will play against Tennessee.
In an odd stat, State had led for only 11 minutes all season against FBS opponents entering the UMass game, and UMass led 10-0 in the first quarter.
In SEC games only, State is giving up 531 total yards and 42.6 points while UT is allowing 338.2 yards and 17.2 points. State’s run defense is giving up 102 more yards per game than UT. State has only two sacks in SEC play. State is averaging 37 more passing yards in SEC games than UT. State is averaging 7.48 yards per completion to UT’s 7.09. UT leads the SEC in punts per game at 5.8 to State’s 3.4. State’s third-down defense is last in the SEC (50%) while UT is second (28.8%)
It was once said of stats that they reflect lies and dang lies.
Maybe so, but stats tell me UT’s offense should bamboozle the Bulldogs and UT’S defense should contain a one-dimensional offense.
Tennessee hasn’t score 30 points in an SEC game yet and hasn’t given up 20 points in a game all season – something the program hasn’t done since the 1966 team didn’t allow a 20-point game all season.
Tennessee will break one trend while trying to maintain another. And keep alive their CFP hopes.
Prediction: Tennessee 41, Mississippi State 17.
