There is plenty at stake for Tennessee’s football team this weekend when the Vols host Mississippi State. It looks like a one-sided affair on several fronts. Tennessee has everything to lose and not much to gain. Fortunately, Mississippi State doesn’t have much of anything to play for whatsoever.
The Bulldogs enter the Tennessee game with no chance of making the College Football Playoff, no bowl game to play for and not even a rivalry game to salvage the season.
Sure, one can argue that State can work on themselves for next year under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby, but that’s a reach considering there are probably a handful of players that are already considering entering the transfer portal as soon as it opens in December. Likewise, there are also surely some Mississippi State coaches that are ready to try and restock their current roster as soon as possible.
There is a reason Tennessee is considered a 23.5-favorite to beat the Bulldogs in Neyland Stadium on Saturday at 7 p.m. EST. Here are four reasons why the Vols will beat Mississippi State and, most likely, hammer the Bulldogs.
Quarterback Play
I’m well aware that quarterbacks don’t place each other. However, both teams, which run a similar up-tempo offense, depend on their quarterbacks to get them in the right play, make the right decision and deliver the football. That’s beginning to happen at a high rate with Tennessee signal-caller Nico Iamaleava, who has played his best football over the past six quarters, which include a win against Kentucky and a strong second half against Alabama.
Iamaleava’s 144.6 quarterback rating is sixth best in the SEC, but he’s played better than that as of late. State quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr., ranks 11th in the SEC. This should be a mismatch from the opening kickoff.
That leads us to…
State can’t stop the pass
Only one team is worse in the SEC than Mississippi State when it comes to pass defense. The Bulldogs ranks 15th in the SEC in defending the pass, allowing 250 yards per game. Only Arkansas, yes, the team that beat Tennessee, is worse. However, the Vols that faced the Razorbacks in October have improved greatly and can still get better.
Iamaleava is far more comfortable with a more stable offensive line protecting him and the Vols seem to be close to being the high-octane offense that most expected this season. If Tennessee can avoid a drop or two, eliminate a holding penalty or two and just play clean, the Bulldogs can’t stop them – nor even slow them down.
State can’t stop the run
One would think that Mississippi State would excel at stopping the run since they can’t stop the pass. Nope, the Bulldogs are actually worse at stopping opponents when they keep the ball on the ground, ranking last in the SEC – that’s 16th in the conference – allowing 211 yards rushing per game. That’s not only bad. It’s very bad. State is allowing almost 50 yards rushing more per game than Florida, which ranks 15th in the SEC, allowing 162 yards per game rushing.
State can’t score
Mississippi State ranks 12th in the SEC in points scored per game, which is a rather paltry 29.1 per contest. The Vols would have to play their worst game this season and, arguably, their worst game under fourth-year head coach Josh Heupel to slip up against the Bulldogs. That doesn’t seem likely as the No. 7 Vols have a College Football Playoff bid on the line.
Prediction: Tennessee 48, Mississippi State 9
