It’s time to panic. That win by the Ole Miss Rebels over the Georgia Bulldogs last Saturday did exactly what Tennessee football fans feared it might do: It added another team standing in their way to reach the College Football Playoff. The second CFP rankings of 2024 did more damage than that.
In addition to Ole Miss, the CFP put the Alabama Crimson Tide on the Vols’ tail, and it moved two more teams ahead of them who weren’t there last week, further complicating their path to getting in and definitely getting a home game in the first round, assuming they don’t get a bye. That’s why the Vols didn’t move up at all last week.
While Georgia and the Miami Hurricanes fell behind Tennessee football after losses, the Indiana Hoosiers and BYU Cougars both leapfrogged UT. They were No. 5 and No. 6 respectively, while the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions were No. 1 through 4 in that order.
Behind Rocky Top are the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 8, Miami still at No. 9, the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 10, Ole Miss at No. 11 and Georgia at No. 12. However, the Boise State Broncos, at No. 13, would be the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, so they’d get in over Georgia.
If the season ended with those standings, UT would get the No. 8 seed despite being No. 7, as Miami would be one of the top four seeds getting a bye as one of the top four conference champions. They would then host Notre Dame in a first-round playoff game.
So what does this all mean?
Well, thanks to Ole Miss beating UGA, the Vols have to also beat them this week. If they don’t they’ll fall behind both teams, and despite their win over Alabama, it’s so close in the rankings that Alabama would likely leapfrog them too. Assuming chalk happens everywhere, UT is looking at falling to Georgia’s spot.
There’s more to the story with the other rankings, though. Hope was out there that Indiana’s incredibly easy schedule would mean that they wouldn’t leapfrog a 10-2 SEC team if they finish 11-1, assuming they will with a loss to Ohio State. Being one game ahead of the Vols and ranked ahead of them here, though, shows that’s likely not the case.
Then there’s BYU. Now, on paper, again, BYU seems like no threat, as they would just be the Big 12 champion getting the auto bid. However, since they are one game better than the Vols at this moment, assume they lose the Big 12 Championship game to the Colorado Buffaloes but finish the regular season undefeated.
At that point, Colorado would get the auto bid, and BYU would still have one less loss than the Vols, which would come in conference championship week and wouldn’t be penalized by the committee. In no way would the committee leapfrog Rocky Top over them. See the problem here?
Even if Tennessee Football gets a bit of help from the committee after a potential loss to Georgia, the inner workings of the Big 12 could close off their path. Colorado could definitely beat BYU given the way they’re playing, and based on the rankings this week, that wouldn’t mean much.
Taking all this into account, UT has a heck of a lot more pressure to beat Georgia on the road than we initially thought. Josh Heupel may get a mulligan if Nico Iamaleava is hurt, but there are too many scenarios based on these rankings in which Tennessee football gets left out if they lose.
