Matt Stinchcomb believes Saturday’s Tennessee-Georgia contest is an elimination game.

The SEC Network analyst says Georgia with three defeats won’t make the 12-team College Football Playoff.

He also thinks Tennessee is out with a second loss.

His theory: The 13-member CFP Selection Committee loves the Big Ten. Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana are all ranked in the top five of the second reveal, and Stinchcomb expects three Big Ten teams to get at-large spots.

That leaves four at-large bids, and Stinchcomb thinks the SEC will get no more than three.

“The committee loves the Big Ten,” Stinchcomb told the Knoxville Quarterback Club. “And because of that, it’s not the other SEC teams that would crowd a Tennessee … out as a two-loss team. It’s the Big Ten that makes it super crowded.”

While I agree that the selection committee is enamored with the Big Ten and that Georgia will be ousted with a third defeat. I don’t agree with his conclusion on Tennessee. And I don’t agree that the Big Ten will crowd out the Vols. I think it would be the SEC.

Why? Because the Big Ten has only four teams with a chance to make the playoffs. The SEC has two one-loss teams and five two-loss teams. And the SEC has six teams ranked in the top 15.

“Depending on what scenario unfolds within this conference,” said Stinchcomb, a former Georgia All-American offensive lineman, “there is almost zero margin for error for the University of Tennessee Volunteers.”

In the SEC, if Texas beats Texas A&M, the Aggies are out. But if A&M wins, the Longhorns and Aggies are in the picture.

If Alabama goes 10-2, the Crimson Tide is in the hunt, but UT (if it goes 10-2) beat the Tide.

If Ole Miss wins out, the 10-2 Rebels have a convincing win over Georgia. So Ole Miss likely will be ranked ahead of the Dawgs unless Georgia wins the SEC Championship. And Georgia would vault the Vols due to the head-to-head win.

In the Big Ten, if Ohio State beats Indiana 45-10, does the committee reject the Hoosiers in part because their schedule ranks 100 in the nation and they wouldn’t have a win over a ranked opponent?

Of course, if Georgia beats Tennessee by three touchdowns, UT’s resume takes a huge hit.

It’s also worth noting that the ACC and Big 12 could end up with just one bid.

As the stakes rise, more teams in the playoff hunt will fall. They will succumb to expectations.

And we’ll see a ton of upsets in November – like we always do.

Upsets are a part of the college landscape. Who would have thought Vanderbilt would beat Alabama, or Kentucky would win at Ole Miss, or Georgia Tech would take down Miami?

So what happens to Tennessee if the Vols fall in Athens?

For one, the Vols must keep it close.

Secondly, if UT loses and doesn’t have starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the committee could give the Vols a break.

Finally, it depends on what a handful of other teams do.

If Tennessee loses a close encounter at Georgia, the Vols are still in the playoff hunt.

And at 10-2, I’d give UT a 50-50 chance to make the 12-team playoff – not zero.