Predicting the Tennessee-Georgia game is as difficult as figuring out if Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava will start this Saturday.
Iamaleava makes a huge difference. He played his best eight quarters (not counting woeful competition) in his last three games.
But he suffered a concussion and an apparent shoulder injury in the first half against Mississippi State. He’s been in concussion protocol for days.
If he doesn’t make the trip to Athens, we know he won’t play for the No. 4 Vols (8-1, 5-1 SEC).
But if you’re Tennessee, don’t you fly him to No. 10 Georgia (7-2, 5-2) even if you know he likely won’t suit up? Then make a game-time decision?
While I thought Gaston Moore did well against Mississippi State in the second half, he threw for only 38 yards against the worst defense in the SEC, and no one would confuse his skill set with Iamaleava.
Even if Iamaleava plays, is he 100%? Or 90%? Or 75%?
It’d be hard enough to upset Georgia with a healthy Iamaleava. It would be more difficult without a 100% Iamaleava.
For the sake of argument, we will assume Iamaleava plays. And we’ll assume he’s at least 90%.
So can Tennessee snap Georgia’s seven-game win streak in this series – all by double digits? And the Dawgs 28-game home win streak – the longest active in the FBS?
Yes, but several things must happen:
Georgia 4-star quarterback Carson Beck must continue to play like a 2-star. In the last six games, he’s had 14 turnovers – 12 interceptions. He had six picks all of last year. Beck is throwing into coverage, he’s not seeing the field well, he doesn’t have much of a run attack to help, his protection hasn’t always been good (he was sacked five times at Ole Miss) and he misses his two favorite targets from last season: Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey.
Tennessee’s run defense, which ranks second in the SEC, must contain the Dawgs ground game. Georgia, which ranks 15th in the SEC in rushing, doesn’t have a big-time running back and had just 60 rushing yards against Ole Miss. If you make Georgia one-dimensional, that puts more pressure on Beck and likely helps your defense mount a better pass rush. But the Vols run defense hasn’t been so good lately, giving up 168 yards to Kentucky and 179 to Mississippi State. And each of those teams produced a 100-yard rusher.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t been nearly as dominant as it’s been in previous years, but the Dawgs still allow just 111 rushing yards per game. Tennessee needs to get over 150 rushing. That means Dylan Sampson, who leads the SEC in rushing (125.4) and touchdowns (20) must have a big game. If Sampson doesn’t get 100 yards, UT is in trouble.
Iamaleava must be effective. That doesn’t mean throwing for 300 yards, but it does mean executing and converting on third down and making enough plays in the passing game to open up the run. If Georgia doesn’t respect the pass and loads the box, the Vols will struggle to get to 20 points.
Tennessee must play a clean game. That doesn’t mean a perfect game, but it does mean you can’t fumble on the opening drive or get key penalties or sacks that stop drives. Points will be at a premium. Avoiding mistakes that impact scoring is vital. UT ranks 14th in the SEC in penalties per game (7.78).
Finally, Georgia is coming off an embarrassing 28-10 loss at Ole Miss in which neither the offense nor defense played well. Georgia also allowed a freshman backup quarterback to engineer a touchdown drive and a gimpy starting QB to be productive. Georgia’s playoff backs are against the wall, so are the Dawgs extra motivated, or bereft of confidence? Beck certainly isn’t playing with confidence. The entire offense isn’t playing with confidence. If Beck has another turnover-filled game and the Dawgs offense sputters early, Tennessee will be in prime position to score an upset.
I see Tennessee making this a fourth-quarter game but not making enough plays to win.
Prediction: Georgia 20, Tennessee 17.
