Traditionally, Tennessee fans’ experience with needing help in November is hoping the Florida Gators or Georgia Bulldogs lose an SEC game so they can try to win the East. This time, though, the Vols are on the outside looking for help in the College Football Playoff rankings.
UT came in at No. 11 in the most recent CFP rankings Tuesday night after their 31-17 loss at UGA Saturday. However, since only three conferences make up the top 11, including the SEC, two more auto bids have to be given out to teams below the Vols, which would push them to No. 13, one spot outside of the rankings.
At issue for the Vols is the fact that they are one of four 8-2 SEC along with the Ole Miss Rebels, Alabama Crimson Tide and UGA. Tennessee did beat Alabama at home, but Alabama and Ole Miss both beat Georgia, who beat Tennessee. The committee put Tennessee last in that group, with Georgia at No. 10, Ole Miss No. 9 and Bama No. 7.
Whine all you want. Complain all you want. It may be justified. The truth is, however, that the Vols have nobody but themselves to blame for being in this situation. Sure, they have a quality win over Alabama, and no, Georgia on the road is never a bad loss. You can’t overlook that Arkansas Razorbacks game, though.
Sam Pittman and the Hogs are 5-5 right now. Tennessee got to face them coming off a bye, and they built a 14-3 lead in the third quarter. There is no way they should have lost that game, and by doing so, they may have ruined their own chances. Whatever you think of the committee, they didn’t cause that game.
Remember, the point of the expanded CFP was to make sure no teams could complain. It’s one thing to have one loss or be undefeated and complain about not making a top four or a top two. Having two losses, though, eliminates all right for any team to complain, and that includes the Vols.
So how can Tennessee overcome this and reach the CFP?
The simplest solution comes down to the No. 5 ranked Indiana Hoosiers. Despite being undefeated, Indiana has a strength of schedule outside of the top 100. Kurt Cignetti’s team, although the best story in college football, hasn’t beaten one team with a winning record and will finish the year having played seven of the eight worst teams in the Big Ten.
Indiana’s only marquee game is against the Ohio State Buckeyes this weekend, and it’s on the road. If Ohio State wins, it’ll be hard to justify keeping Indiana in over any of the other teams given their schedule, and if they get blown out, then there’s a near-certainty they are knocked out.
Beyond Indiana, though, the Vols have another realistic albeit not likely path with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who came in at No. 6. Notre Dame closes out the year against the undefeated Army Black Knights and at the USC Trojans, and with a bad loss to the Northern Illinois Fighting Illini on their resume, dropping either of those knocks them out.
Then there is just the hope that one of the SEC teams ahead of them stumbles. Ole Miss does have to visit a rejuvenated Florida team this weekend, and they already have a bad loss to the Kentucky Wildcats on their resume. Also, the Texas A&M Aggies could upset the No. 3 and one-loss Texas Longhorns, who would inevitably drop out.
There are plenty of other possibilities too. Maybe the No. 4 ranked Penn State Nittany Lions, with no quality wins, suffer an upset and a second loss. Ohio State could lose to Indiana and then slip up against the Michigan Wolverines, knocking them out with three losses.
Josh Heupel’s team won’t want Georgia or Alabama to lose. Technically, it could help their case, but they could use the quality win over Bama, and they need that loss to the Dawgs to look as good as possible. The most desirable scenario is Ole Miss falling to Florida, but Indiana falling to OSU is the most likely.
