Let’s start with the good news. Tennessee jumped three spots in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, to No. 8. That means that while the team was expected they would leapfrog the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ole Miss Rebels, they did so with the Indiana Hoosiers as well.
The bad news?
UT would now be the No. 9 seed visiting the Georgia Bulldogs if the CFP rankings of today stayed as they are. Now, that’s not going to happen, but it still puts the Vols in a tough spot, because if they got past that and did reach the second round, they would face the Oregon Ducks.
Okay, back to the good news.
Despite being a No. 9 seed, the Vols are one spot away from hosting a CFP game. If they moved up, then Georgia would move up to the No. 7 seed, and the Vols would not face Georgia. Instead, as the rankings stand today, they would host the SMU Mustangs, who are ranked No. 9 at the moment.
Tennessee fans would love nothing more than the chance to host a playoff game against one of the worst teams that would make it. Sure, SMU has been good this year with Rhett Lashlee, but they are nowhere on the Vols’ level, and the momentum that could come with beating them would be through the roof.
So how is this likely to play out?
Well, for starters, the Vols have to beat the Vanderbilt Commodores on the road this week. If they fail to do that, then none of this really matters, as they don’t have a good enough resume to be one of the three-loss teams who would be jockeying for a spot in the event.
At the same time, Georgia is going to the SEC Championship game and will face the Texas Longhorns. Both are ahead of Tennessee, and one has to lose. The question there is how much the committee will punish teams for losing an extra game.
Most likely, though, the Vols could make the jump based on a couple of realistic upsets this weekend. Texas, who we mentioned, has to visit the Texas A&M Aggies. They are No. 3 in the CFP, and if they lose while the Vols win, both teams will have three losses, but UT will have the win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in its back pocket.
Texas’ best win, meanwhile, will be Vanderbilt, a team the Vols will have beaten too if they win this Saturday. Simply put, if both teams finish 10-2, there’s no way you could justify Texas being a higher seed than Tennessee in the CFP.
If not Texas, well, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish could slip up against the USC Trojans. Notre Dame is No. 5 in the CFP, and if they slip up, they would likely lose a home game. Of course, it’s tricky to discuss whether or not they would fall below the Vols, but that’s a different story.
What about SMU staying in their spot? If they don’t, it’ll be because they lost the ACC title game to the Miami Hurricanes, who are No. 6 in the CFP. Both teams are likely going now. At that point, UT could host Miami and its generational quarterback in Cam Ward. If Miami drops far enough, though, then Tennessee would host Indiana, who is No. 10 in the CFP.
By far the most ideal scenario for Tennessee is to host SMU or Indiana in the first round. Even visiting Oregon in the second round would be worth that type of environment. Going to Georgia, however, has already proven to be disastrous and could be once again. Simply put, this line between great and awful draws is extremely thin.
