Tennessee football: Five keys for Vols to beat Ohio State

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As I made the 360-mile drive Friday up I-75 then I-71 to the home of Ohio State, I passed quite a few cars with Vol flags or Tennessee license plates.

One SUV had painted on the back window: “Vol-umbus Invasion.”

Indeed, Ohio Stadium might show a resemblance to Neyland North.

I’m not sure 30% of the fans will be wearing Big Orange, but over 15,000 Tennessee fans wouldn’t surprise me for the 8:10 kickoff Saturday night.

Tennessee has been outstanding against Big Ten teams in bowl games, going 12-5. That includes a 20-14 victory over the Buckeyes in the 1996 Citrus Bowl.

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Ohio State is an amazingly inept 1-14 against the SEC in postseason play.

But this is a different animal.

This is the first round of a 12-team College Football Playoff game played at the home site of the higher seed: Ohio State.

This is a win-and-advance tussle.

This has national championship implications.

This will also be a test for the mindset of Ohio State after the devastating loss to 20-point underdog Michigan last month.

Will Ohio State players be motivated to prove the Michigan debacle was a fluke?

Will Buckeye players rally around an embattled coach that some feel will be fired if he can’t beat Tennessee — his 66-10 record be darn if you can’t beat Michigan?

Will OSU fans boo coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes if they get off to a slow start?

From the Tennessee perspective, how will the Vols handle playing in a hostile environment — if indeed it is hostile.

How will the Vols fare in frigid temperatures — wind chill in the teens, snow possible.

For Tennessee to win and advance, here are five keys:

Solid QB play

Quarterback Nico Iamaleava must play well. He has in the past five games. I thought he turned the corner in the second half at Alabama and has carried that play down the stretch. In the last five games, he’s had three 200-yard games, had a pass efficiency rating of 195 or better in three games, completed over 69% of his passes in three games, and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 11-1.

Iamaleava has been comfortable and confident down the stretch. He’s been more decisive in his throws and runs.

Of course, part of playing well is getting help from your receivers. UT had three wideouts that didn’t finish the game at Vanderbilt and four have hit the portal. If UT isn’t healthy at wideout, that’s a huge advantage for Ohio State.

Run the ball well

Tennessee must rush for at least 125 yards. That is roughly the average of Dylan Sampson, who set school records for rushing yards and touchdowns in a single season.

He’s going against an OSU defense that ranks seventh in the nation against the run (96.8 yards per game) 

If UT struggles to run, that means OSU can dial up more pressure on Iamaleava.

Interestingly, Sampson averages 6 fewer rushing yards per game than the OSU tandem of TreyVon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Sampson also has two more carries than OSU’s duo combined.

Bring the heat

Tennessee must pressure OSU quarterback Will Howard. The transfer from Kansas State has outstanding numbers: 72.3% completion rate, 172 efficiency rate, 27 touchdowns, eight picks. He also is mobile, having run for 131 net yards.

But he didn’t play well against Michigan and you wonder where his confidence level is, and the pressure he’s under. Not only is a Rose Bowl berth on the line, so might be the job of Day.

Elite DB play

Tennessee’s secondary must play its best game of the season. The secondary has been surprisingly good this season, led by Oregon State transfer Jermod McCoy.

OSU counters with the best trio of receivers UT will have faced. Jeremiah Smith (57 for 934, 10 TDs) is one of the two best freshmen wideouts in the country. The other, Alabama’s Ryan Williams, was contained by McCoy.

OSU also features Emeka Egbuka (60 for 743, nine TDs) and Carnell Tate (41 for 583, 4 scores). The Buckeyes have three wideouts with at least 41 catches. UT has none. OSU wideouts have 23 scores, UT’s top three have six.

UT will need to affect Howard to help the secondary.

Quick start

Tennessee must get off to a fast start. The Vols have been hit-and-miss in this area. They led Georgia 10-0 but couldn’t hold on.

If they lead OSU 10-0, Buckeye fans might turn on Day and the team.

That would certainly work in UT’s favor.

On paper, OSU has the talent advantage. The Buckeyes have 16 five-stars and 55 four-stars. UT has 4 and 37, respectively.

OSU also had the talent edge against Michigan and we know what happened there.

Prediction: Ohio Sate 23, Tennessee 20.

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