Tennessee’s upcoming football season is apparently difficult to predict. Opinions are all over the place. Let’s unpack what should be a very intriguing year for the Vols.
Beginning with ESPN, there are a number of media types that have serious questions about Tennessee, who finished No. 9 in the AP Poll after going 10-3 and 6-2 in the SEC. The Vols made the College Football Playoff before being knocked out by the eventual national champion, Ohio State.
According to longtime SEC columnist Mark Schlabach, the Vols will struggle to find replacements for running back Dylan Sampson, EDGE rusher James Pearce, Jr. and receivers Bru McCoy and Dont’e Thornton Jr.
“After winning nine games or more for the third straight season and reaching the CFP, Josh Heupel has some work to do this offseason, especially on offense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see UT take a step back in 2025. The Volunteers are losing Sampson, the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns, and their top three receivers (McCoy and Thornton exhausted their eligibility, and White entered the transfer portal). Three starting offensive linemen will also have to be replaced…There’s a solid nucleus coming back on defense, but Tennessee will miss Pearce’s production on the edge.”
Schlabach believes the Vols should be ranked 19th in the nation. If Tennessee finishes 19th, that would be a massive disappointment in what could be quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s final season in Knoxville. Based on that ranking, the Vols would likely lose three or four games and miss the College Football Playoff. There’s no arguing that would be a step back and wouldn’t sit well among Tennessee fans.
CBS’ Dennis Dodd, who has Tennessee ranked No. 9 in his poll, sees things differently:
“Nico Iamaleava was exposed a bit playing in the cold against an elite defense at Ohio State in the CFP. No matter how much progress the Vols have made, Iamaleava and Tennessee likely have to win a game like that to take the next step. Losing SEC leading rusher Dylan Sampson will hurt, and the offensive line needs to be retooled. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks is a star, so don’t expect a big drop off on that side of the ball.”
While Schlabach certainly brings up some valid points, I tend to side with Dodd’s prediction for one simple reason: I believe Iamaleava will improve significantly before this season and, perhaps, before he heads off to the NFL or takes more money from another NIL school.
I know that Iamaleava’s name is more easily pronounced as “mud” in some circles that aren’t real keen on the rising sophomore quarterback after his family demanded more NIL cash to remain a Vol. However, I’ve been repeatedly told that was a family ultimatum and had nothing to do with Iamaleava, that he is and has been happy with his experience at Tennessee. My prediction about Iamaleava, however, could be completely blown up by that very same family. I’ve seen this before.
Countless players’ careers have been derailed by parents that, before the NIL era, were all about more playing time. After all, their son needed to get ready for the NFL. It didn’t really matter that their son might not be the best option for the team nor ready to play in the SEC.
Parents, such as the Iamaleavas, should be easier to deal with nowadays. Sure, you might have to pay them more, but once that’s done, no one is going to come griping about playing time, especially since there is no question that Iamaleava will be the starter this season.
As a team, I certainly understand the potential deficiencies that could be out there, but I’m still sold on Iamaleava after watching him make elite, accurate passes despite inconsistent pass protection. However, this is probably a good time to chuck the troubling high mark that Iamaleava would have to get to in order to make fans happy.
We may just have to come to the conclusion that former Vol Hendon Hooker was better than we thought during his college days. He wasn’t just a product of Tennessee coach Josh Heupel’s system. Hooker was a great quarterback with an accurate arm, especially on deep passes. Iamaleava may not get all the way to a Hooker level, but if he comes even close, then the Vols will be much better.
Hooker posted a 175.5 quarterback rating in 2022 when he made a serious run at the Heisman Trophy before the Columbia Collapse. He posted a 181.4 quarterback rating in 2021 when he took over for an injured Joe Milton. Both of those ratings were tops in the SEC.
It’s time to accept that Iamaleava, whose quarterback rating was 145.3 last season, may never be as good as Hooker. However, I believe he’ll improve greatly, and his quarterback rating – and play – will be somewhere between what Hooker did in 2022 and what Iamaleava did last season. In fact, that’s what I’m primarily basing my way-too-early preseason prediction on. I think the Vols have enough returning players to actually have a better roster than they did last season, despite the losses.
Prediction: 11-3 with one win in the College Football Playoff
