Tennessee Basketball head coach Rick Barnes may make the Final Four this season. His Vols could also get bounced out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Nevertheless, this much is certain: he’s not going to change.

Barnes will be 71-years-old in July. He’s not going to suddenly trade in his tough, defensive-minded style for something more contemporary. Depending on how you perceive Barnes and his career, Tennessee is either stuck with him or blessed to have him – and his coaching style.

Former Alabama coach Nick Saban was willing to put his long-standing coaching beliefs aside in 2014 when he hired the anti-Saban, former Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin, to run his offense. That worked out quite swimmingly as the two won a national championship together in 2015. Such a maneuver doesn’t seem possible with Barnes for a couple of different reasons.

Let’s start with a simple history lesson. Barnes has made one Final Four during his career, which occurred in 2003. He began his head coaching career at George Mason in 1980. That’s over 40 years of being a head coach doing things his way. There’s no way he’s going to deviate from his plan now.

Basketball is also much different than football, which can be split into parts. Saban could turn over part of his team to Kiffin. He still oversaw everything on offense, but he was able to focus on his defense and recruiting while trusting Kiffin to revamp Alabama’s offense.

That just won’t work in basketball. Assistant coaches in basketball offer up scouting reports or coach fundamentals, but they don’t determine the direction of a team, as Kiffin partly did with Alabama’s football program.

How exactly would Barnes change things even if he could? Would he just sit on the bench during practice and let an assistant install a different game plan? That’s just not feasible. Like it or not, Barnes will run the show until his career is over, which can’t be that far off.

One well-placed source told Off The Hook Sports that Barnes has a “few” more years left in him. While that could be the case, this seems like the perfect season for Barnes to retire whether or not he gets back to the Final Four.

Beginning with the more optimistic view, if Barnes wins a national championship or makes the Final Four, he would hang up his whistle and leave on a high note. Then, there’s the other, more likely, scenario. If Barnes can’t win with the group he has now, which is a perfect fit for his approach, he may want to call it a career regardless of what the Vols do in the NCAA Tournament.

This is the perfect team to fit Barnes’ style. He has an extremely savvy point guard that can run his system and is an incredible defender. Barnes also has a forward that can “D” up most any player in the nation. If Barnes can’t win with Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack, then it’s reasonable to question if his style can ever win at a high level.

It’s certainly worth noting that both of those players are seniors, meaning Barnes will have to completely rebuild the core of his team if he decides to return. Barnes has been able to supplement his roster with impact players like Dalton Knecht and Chaz Lanier. However, this is different. Tennessee’s basketball team will need a total overhaul after this season. 

Does Barnes have that in him? I’m certain he could handle it. Despite his age, he’s proven adept at mastering the new age of college basketball in which the transfer portal and NIL are as important as a jump shot and boxing out. That’s a testament to his coaching ability, but his desire will be tested when he evaluates his roster after the season.

As I’ve stated before, I believe Tennessee should do everything it can to keep Barnes, which would include a lifetime contract. However, I’m not sure that’s in Barnes’ best interest.

Barnes can do what he wants, but this would be the perfect time to retire. There are two scenarios. First, Tennessee wins the national championship. Then, Barnes could ride off into the sunset having proven that his style can indeed win at an elite level. Then, there’s the more likely scenario.

Out of 68 teams, 67 will lose and be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. That is almost assuredly Tennessee’s fate. The Vols may make the Final Four. They may get bounced out of the tournament in the first round by Wofford. Either way, this seems to be the high water mark for Barnes. He has assembled his team his way that plays his style.

There would be no shame in an early exit from the NCAA Tournament. Sure, it would be disappointing, but Barnes’ run at Tennessee should erase any doubt that he’s one of the best coaches in the history of college basketball. However, he may just have a ceiling, which is something I’m sure that Tennessee athletic director Danny White is aware of. 

White would never admit it, but he’d probably prefer an up-and-down, fast-paced style of basketball. That’s why he hired Kim Caldwell to head up the Lady Vols and Josh Heupel to coach Tennessee’s football team. UT’s athletic director is all about marketing, and points sell. One could argue that Barnes is costing Tennessee money via donations that would pour in with a young, up-and-coming coach that likes to run the floor.

If Barnes were to step aside after this season, he would have proven he could build up a program to, at least, a near championship level – again. Tennessee has made seven straight NCAA Tournaments under Barnes, who also had fantastic success at George Mason, Providence, Clemson and Texas.

The Vols have been a fifth seed or higher in every one of those seven tournament appearances. They also won 27 games this season, which has only happened two other times in UT history. This is truly a golden era in Tennessee basketball. However, it may be time for Barnes to step aside. 

Barnes certainly doesn’t want to limp out of college basketball with a program that doesn’t match the standard he’s instilled. No one wants to see Barnes go out on a bad note. That could certainly happen if he doesn’t adequately rebuild his roster. It may well be time to retire. If that’s the case, then he’ll leave a winner no matter what happens this month.