Decades of upsets have taught us that March Madness is not a science. However, you can look at data and metrics to determine the most likely scenarios when filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket. With that information, the evidence is OVERWHELMING that Tennessee Basketball could be a LOCK for the Final Four.

The only chance the Vols have at losing before getting there is in the Sweet 16. Why? It’s the only time Tennessee is likely to run into a team that runs an up-tempo style of play. UT, a slow-paced team itself, has dominated other slow-paced teams all season long.

Rick Barnes’ team is No. 308 in possessions per game, and using the KenPom rating that adjusts for opponent in possessions per 40 minutes, their pace is down at No. 346. However, Against teams outside of the top 200 in both ratings this year, the Vols are 7-0 and won games by an average of 18.3 points, 7 points better than their average margin of victory.

Flipping it to the other side, Tennessee has only two losses this year to teams outside of the top 100 in either ranking. Both were on the road by two at the buzzer, to the Auburn Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels. Their only top 25 road win this year came against the slowest paced top 25 team they played, the Texas A&M Aggies.

Simply put, the slower a team plays, the more dominant UT is against them.

So what does that mean for the Big Dance?

Well, all three potential opponents for Tennessee in their first weekend are outside of the top 200 in tempo in both metrics. The Vols’ first opponent, the Wofford Terriers, are outside of the top 300 in both, and the UCLA Bruins and Utah State Aggies are outside of the top 200. As a result, they should be a lock for the Sweet 16.

Let’s jump to all potential Elite Eight matchups. Every single team UT could possibly face in the Elite Eight is ranked lower in possessions per game and the KenPom adjusted tempo than every team to beat the Vols this year except the Gonzaga Bulldogs, and as a 9-seed, it’s very unlikely they will get that far.

In fact, all of the other teams the Vols would face in that round are outside of the top 200 KenPom tempo rankings, and all but the Georgia Bulldogs are outside of the top 200 in possessions per game. UT beat Georgia by 18, and again, it’s unlikely they would even get that far.

Obviously, the biggest threats to the Vols in that round would be the Houston Cougars and Purdue Boilermakers, the No. 1 and No. 4 seeds respectively. They are also the two slowest potential matchups. Houston is outside of the top 300 in both rankings, and Purdue is No. 297 in both.

What about the No. 5 seed Clemson Tigers? Well, they’re the third slowest team with a KenPom rating outside of the top 300 and ranked No. 283 in possessions per game. Will Wade’s McNeese State Cowboys are the No. 12 seed in that bracket but are outside of the top 300 in possessions per game and No. 283 in KenPom tempo ratings.

For what it’s worth, the No. 16 seed SIU Edwardsville Cougars and No. 13 seed High Point Panthers are outside of the top 200 in both, if you really thought either would have a chance at the Vols. Taking all this into account, UT has the advantage in its Round of 64, Round of 32 and Elite Eight matchup, especially when you factor in the home court advantage of them playing in Indianapolis.

Where does that lead us when it comes to the Sweet 16?

Herein lies the tricky matchup for UT. Two of the teams on here are in the top 25 in both rankings in tempo, the No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats and No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini, and it’s worth noting UT is 1-2 against them combined, having been swept by UK and needing a last-second bucket to beat Illinois.

Behind them are the No. 11 Xavier Musketeers, who are in the top 100 KenPom tempo ratings and just outside of it in possessions per game. Xavier has a play-in game with the Texas Longhorns, who UT beat in Austin this past year but only by four. Texas is below all teams to beat the Vols in both categories in tempo, but not by much.

If the No. 14 seed Troy Trojans reach the Sweet 16, UT is in good shape, not just because they are not on the Vols’ level but because their rating is outside of the top 200 in both categories. That’s wishful thanking on the part of Vol fans, though. March Madness would have to live up to its billing.

In simplest terms, the Sweet 16 is the only matchup standing in the way between the Vols and the Final Four. The good news is it’s not like they can’t beat up-tempo teams. They beat the Alabama Crimson Tide, the most fast-paced team in the nation, and they beat Illinois in this bracket on the road.

Kentucky swept them by uncharacteristically shooting lights out both times, but could they do that a third time? Are we sure these two will meet then? Also, regardless of tempo, UT is just better than Texas, Xavier and Troy. Simply put, they are still in great shape for March Madness outside of facing UK. Of course, that’s their most likely Sweet 16 matchup as well.