Although Vegas is high on Tennessee Football in its opener against the Syracuse Orange, with the Vols being a -12.5-point favorite, give or take a point depending on the sportsbook, and although the game is closer to Knoxville, being in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, there was reason for concern surrounding UT. Spring ball only made it worse.
After all, Josh Heupel has to break in a new starting quarterback beyond what he thought in Nico Iamaleava. The Vols also have key losses on the defensive line, at running back and the interior of their offensive line. Then they have a key injury, as their best PFF player, cornerback, Jermod McCoy, will be coming off an offseason ACL tear.
Add in the fact that Syracuse is a good program, coming off a 10-3 season and top 25 finish in their first year under head coach Fran Brown, and everything is there for an upset. However, Tennessee Football just got a huge break to alleviate that concern in the form of the kickoff time.
When Brett McMurphy revealed that the Aflac Kickoff game between these two schools on Aug. 30 would be at Noon ET, everybody in Knoxville should have breathed a sigh of relief. Because of how early in the morning they practice unnder Heupel, the Vols have been superb at noon, much better than they are at night.
Last year alone, the Vols played just four games that didn’t kick off at night, and they were 4-0 against the spread in those games. In night games, which we would consider a start time of 6 p.m. or later, they were 3-5 ATS, including 0-5 in their final five games.
Beyond the spread, the Vols have suffered four upset losses in the regular season under Heupel. Three of them came at night: Last year at the Arkansas Razorbacks, in 2023 at the Florida Gators and in 2022 at the South Carolina Gamecocks. All three are infamous collapses.
At the same time, they have four regular season upset wins, and three of them were in the day: 2021 at the Missouri Tigers, 2022 against the Alabama Crimson Tide and 2024 against Alabama. The Mizzou game was UT’s coming-out party under Heupel, and Bama in 2022 is still his biggest win.
Speaking of that Mizzou game, it kicked off directly at noon. Tennessee Football is 9-1 overall and against the spread in games that kick off right at that time under Heupel. The only exception to both is the first one they ever had, a 41-34 loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers in 2021 when Joe Milton III got hurt and Hendon Hooker saw his first bit of action.
Simply put, noon kickoffs are a huge benefit for the Vols.
Now, on the other side, Syracuse was 4-4 ATS in games that kicked off with the sun out last year, Brown’s first year, and they were 1-3 in night games, so they seem to be slightly better in the day too. At noon kickoffs directly, though, they were 2-3 ATS.
Taking those numbers into account, Tennessee Football seems to have a huge advantage kicking off at noon. The Vols will be playing at the same time as the biggest game of the day between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns. For what it’s worth, their 1998 national title run began with a noon Kickoff against Syracuse too.
