Tennessee football recruiting under head coach Josh Heupel simply hasn’t been good enough. The proof is in the numbers.
As Heupel assembles his fifth full signing class this summer, with high school football camps forthcoming, there should be real concern that the Vols haven’t laid the foundation needed to truly be championship contenders in the coming seasons. Since the 2022 signing class, Tennessee football recruiting has been respectable but certainly not elite. For context, let’s take a look at some of Tennessee recent signing classes as compared to their top rivals.
The Vols’ last four signing classes averaged 13th best in the nation while Alabama and Georgia both averaged second-best in the country. While it’s a testament to Heupel’s coaching that the Vols beat the Crimson Tide twice over that time span, it’s rather unrealistic to expect that to continue. As for Georgia, the talent gap has been evident as Tennessee hasn’t stayed close to the Bulldogs during that time span. That’s not the only concern.
For the most part, Tennessee has also been barely better than a middle-of-the-pack program in the SEC in recruiting, averaging seventh-best in the SEC during Heupel’s tenure. That opens the Vols up for potential upsets when they don’t play their best, such as last season’s loss against Arkansas.
There’s further concern: Tennessee doesn’t appear to be improving in recruiting under Heupel. After finishing seventh and fourth in the SEC in recruiting in 2022 and 2023, the Vols have finished eighth in the SEC over the past two recruiting cycles. Is Tennessee back-sliding in recruiting despite its success on the field?
Tennessee also has to be mindful of other teams in the College Football Playoff era. The talent gap was obvious when the Vols were bounced out of the first round of the playoffs by Ohio State. For context, the Buckeyes have averaged fourth best in the country in recruiting during Heupel’s tenure.
There’s reason to think Heupel and the Vols can qualify for and, even, advance in the playoffs with their current talent level. Notre Dame’s signing classes averaged 10th best in the country over the last four recruiting cycles. The Fighting Irish played Ohio State for the national championship before losing 34-23 to the Buckeyes. While Notre Dame should be commended for advancing to the title game, the talent gap was woefully evident between the two teams.
A couple of notions have been bandied about to defend Heupel’s recruiting. First, Tennessee football can evaluate, offer and receive commitments from lower-rated prospects early in the recruiting cycle, which the Vols have done repeatedly. Daft evaluations and player development can turn those overlooked prospects into top-flight college football players. However, there’s no substitution for elite talent.
Another supposed path to win a championship in the transfer portal era is an offseason facelift for rosters with incoming players from other schools. However, that method has yet to prove successful for any program, including the Vols, who will likely rely on a transfer at quarterback this fall.
Heupel’s lack of elite recruiting can be defended by a number of retorts, but the numbers don’t lie. Tennessee football will either have to break the mould or be much better in recruiting if they hope to win any championships in the near future.
