Last year was horrendous for my college football betting reputation, and now this year hasn’t started off any better. I somehow went 0-5 last week. No matter. This is the first full weekend, and it’s time to mount a comeback. As was 2024, I’ll pick every game involving an SEC or two top 25 teams and then do my best bets, which can be any game.
Best bets are the over lock of the week, the under lock of the week, the cover lock of the week, the underdog cover lock of the week and the underdog moneyline lock of the week. All I did were best bets for Week 0. This week, there are 16 SEC games plus another top 25 game and two extra games in our best bets, giving us 19 overall to pick. Let’s dive in.
Standard SEC and Top 25 picks and bets
Central Arkansas +39.5 at Missouri; Under 53.5
Mizzou is breaking in a new quarterback to replace Brady Cook and always has a habit of looking ugly to start the season. As a result, they will play a sloppy game here, keeping them from covering and preventing the game from hitting the over to start the season.
Auburn -2.5 at Baylor; Over 59.5
I can’t bring myself to believe the Tigers’ offense will sputter forever under Hugh Freeze no matter how much extra time he spends golfing. Jackson Arnold’s issues were about the Oklahoma Sooners. He turns things around this year, and that starts tonight, so Auburn covers with their offense carrying them to the over.
Tennessee -13.5 vs. Syracuse; Over 50.5
Last year, the Vols had the best rush offense in the SEC, and the Orange had a horrid rush defense. Both offenses were elite. However, both offenses pretty much have to replace everybody. Still, the reputations of Fran Brown and Josh Heupel lead me to believe this game hits the over, and UT has the defense to make it a comfortable win, so they cover.
Ohio State -1.5 vs. Texas; Under 47.5
Arch Manning will be fine, but this is too brutal a first start for anybody in college football. The defending national champions are still loaded, and I think little of either coach, but the talent on defense for both of them will result in the offenses sputtering as they adjust to a new season, so the Buckeyes cover over the Longhorns while this game hits the under.
Mississippi State -13.5 at Southern Miss; Over 61.5
Despite last year, Bulldogs head coach has an amazing offensive mind, and the Golden Eagles are replacing their head coach after going 1-11 last year. With a year now in Lebby’s system, the Bulldogs will dominate, and they’ll do it with their offense against a defense that ranked 128th in points allowed last year. The offense alone might go over.
Kentucky -10.5 vs. Toledo; Over 47.5
Yes, the Wildcats are a bad team, and Mark Stoops isn’t long for this world, but they have enough talent to blow out the Rockets, and their offense is good enough to make sure this game hits the over. It won’t mean anything once the season is in full swing, though.
Georgia -38.5 vs. Marshall; Under 53.5
The Thundering Herd made the crucial mistake of talking trash about the most talented team in college football. Gunner Stockton may not look great, but he’s good enough to get 40 in this game, and Kirby Smart will make sure his defense doesn’t allow any points now, which is why the Under will hit.
Alabama -13.5 at Florida State; Over 50.5
Kalen DeBoer has his guy in Ty Simpson, and this weekend is when he lets the college football world know the Crimson Tide aren’t going anywhere. With Ryan Grubb back and against a Seminoles team more offensive focused anyway in Mike Norvell, Bama might hang 50 themselves on FSU, so they cover easily.
Alabama A&M +42 at Arkansas; Under 60
It still seems like the college football world has passed Bobby Petrino’s offense by, and Hogs coach Sam Pittman is on a raging hot seat. That distraction will lead to ugly play early on offense until they right the ship, hence the Under. The Razorbacks won’t score enough to cover.
Illinois State +35.5 at Oklahoma; Under 59.5
Even after adding the Washington State Cougars quarterback and Wazzu’s offensive coordinator, the OU Sooners’ issues on that side of the ball are about the culture Brent Venables has established. That won’t be fixed, and it’ll show in this game, as they fail to cover due to poor offensive play, which is why this game hits the under.
Long Island University +44.5 at Florida; Under 54.5
Once again, there are offensive issues here with Gators quarterback D.J. Lagway not being fully healthy and being overrated for how he finished the season last year anyway. That is fooling Vegas, so Florida won’t score enough against LIU to cover or for the game to hit the over, leading to a rocky start to Billy Napier’s hot seat season.
Texas A&M -23.5 vs. UTSA; Under 56.5
After having to re-establish a culture in year one, Mike Elko’s Aggies should now be elite. They have great quarterback play, but Elko is a defensive guy, and that will be the statement he tries to make in this one, so A&M covers the Roadrunners by keeping them from scoring a lot, which is why this will hit the Under.
Vanderbilt -35.5 vs. Charleston Southern; Over 46.5
This is typically the type of game in which the Commodores win ugly early, but Clark Lea wants to make a statement to the college football world on behalf of Diego Pavia, so he’s going to let Pavia air it out. Although there will be some mistakes, Pavia will also score…a lot. As a result, Vandy will cover and hit the over with their offense. Think 45-7.
LSU +4.5 at Clemson; Under 57.5
At some point, Brian Kelly’s Tigers have to win a marquee opener, right? What if it’s when they’re finally on the road instead of a neutral site game? Here’s their chance. Clemson was overrated with how they finished the season last year, and Cade Klubnik is overrated himself, so their offense will sputter, allowing the game to hit the Under and LSU to win.
Georgia State +34.5 at Ole Miss; Over 59.5
Tennessee fans know what the Panthers can do to SEC teams in openers, and Lane Kiffin’s Rebels once again have a ton of talent to replace. Since both of these teams are offensive-minded, this will be a first-half shootout before Ole Miss pulls away, which is why GSU covers but the game goes WAY over. I see 52-24 here.
South Carolina -7.5 vs. Virginia Tech; Over 51.5
Stay away from this line. It involves two coaches who aren’t very bright in-game but one, Brent Pry, who is a good program builder at VT. That gives the Hokies an advantage. However, the Gamecocks have LaNorris Sellers. See the issues here? My money is on Sellers taking over late to make sure his team, which is better, covers, and with him this game hits the over.
Notre Dame -2.5 vs. Miami; Under 49.5
Mario Cristobal picked the wrong star quarterback in Carson Beck to run his offense. He needs somebody more mobile. As a result, the Hurricanes will sputter all year on that side of the ball, and even at home against a defensive-minded team like the Fighting Irish, it’ll be brutal. The U has no home field advantage anyway. ND covers with their defense, so this hits the Under.
Best Bets of the Week
Tennessee -13.5 vs. Syracuse
Fleshing this out a bit more, this would seem like the most unpredictable game in college football, but the Vols do have so much more talent, and in Atlanta, they’ll basically be at home. As a result, expect them to cover easily here in what will be an ugly game but one that will see them stumble to at least a three-score win.
South Florida +5.5 vs. Boise State
This is upset alert for the Thursday night game to kick off the season in Tampa. The Broncos are going cross-country to face a Bulls team that is well-coached under Alex Golesh. It should be a pick-em, and there’s a real chance USF pulls this one off. However, it’s definitely worth betting on them to cover.
Alabama at Florida State, the Over 50.5
Writing off Alabama’s offense like this is insane. They will take another step without Jalen Milroe, who couldn’t run DeBoer’s offense. As a result, the Over is an extremely easy play here, and the Tide might hit it themselves on a very questionable ‘Noles defense. If FSU’s offense did turn it back around, they’ll help. The over/under is WAY too low here.
LSU at Clemson, the Under 57.5
Again, Cade Klubnik is wildly overrated for how he finished last year. He only put up 14 points against South Carolina and ran it up against everybody else, mediocre competition. LSU had some defensive issues but not as bad as the year before. They’ll make this an ugly game, which is why the over/under is far too high.
Upset of the Week: Colorado MONEYLINE vs. Georgia Tech
This isn’t some Deion Sanders love. The Buffaloes are at home and have a prodigy taking over for Shedeur Sanders in Kaidon Salter, so despite the job Brent Key has done building the Yellow Jackets, they shouldn’t be favored by 4.5 points. Colorado wins this one outright, and Prime lets everybody know his program isn’t going anywhere.
