Last season, Tennessee football made the 12-team College Football Playoff because of a stout defense, a reliable running game and a favorable schedule.
It did not make the playoffs because quarterback Nico Iamaleava was brilliant or the offense was explosive or it faced a brutal schedule. In fact, Alabama was the only team ranked in the final AP poll that the Vols defeated.
UT coach Josh Heupel reinvented himself. He ditched the up-tempo offense – largely because the Vols weren’t effective running it – for field position, conservative play calling and a defense that ranked No. 2 in the SEC.
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Can Tennessee football win 10 games with the same approach?
No. I don’t see Tennessee winning four games while scoring fewer than 30 points. Maybe two or three, but not four. I don’t see the Vols going scoreless in the first half of three SEC games in a row and surviving each. Remember, at halftime, Tennessee trailed Arkansas and Florida 3-0, and Alabama 7-0.
And I don’t see the defense being as dominating. Good, but not dominating.
The key for Tennessee to repeat a 10-win campaign is for the offense to become more efficient, to be more unpredictable and, naturally, to score more points.
Will that happen?
The first act to this play is Aug. 30 in Atlanta when Tennessee takes on a Syracuse team that won 10 games a year ago.
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Here is my prediction for each Tennessee game.
Tennessee 34, Syracuse 13. The Orange lost a 4,779-yard passer, a quality running back, a top receiver. They return only five starters. That’s not a recipe for success against UT’s stout defense. But I don’t expect UT’s offense to be click early, either. This is the first test for QB Joey Aguilar.
Tennessee 51, ETSU 10. The Vols should have no trouble against the Bucs and first-year coach Will Healy. The FCS team has just three defensive starters returning ,but Tennessee doesn’t appear to be a team that can score 60 or 70 points in a game with so many new faces trying to learn the nuances of Heupel’s scheme.
Georgia 24, Tennessee 17. The defending SEC champions are breaking in a new quarterback in Gunner Stockton. UT’s defense will hold its own against the Bulldogs attack. But scoring against the Dawgs’ talented defense is a tough task, especially as the Vols try to find themselves offensively. Tennessee has beaten Georgia only twice since 2010, and the Dawgs have better personnel.
Tennessee 44, UAB 13. UT welcomes UAB and coach Trent Dilfer, a former high school coach in Nashville and Super Bowl winning quarterback. Dilfer is 7-17 in two seasons and went 3-9 last year. The Blazers return just three starters. And Dilfer hasn’t been able to acquire talent. UAB has finished no better than 119th in scoring defense the past two seasons. This should be no contest.
Tennessee 31, Miss State 17. The Vols routed State 33-14 last year as coach Jeff Lebby tries to build a program. Lebby loves the hurry-up offense and he’s got a good QB in Blake Shapen. But the Bulldogs, 2-10 last year, don’t have the bodies to hang with the Vols. Tennessee football should easily pass its first SEC road test.
Tennessee 30, Arkansas 27: Arkansas upset Tennessee 19-14 a year ago by stifling the Vols’ offense. The Hogs have an athletic QB in Taylen Green, who passed for 266 yards vs. the Vols last year. Green has the potential to be one of the SEC’s top QBs in his second year under OC Bobby Petrino. Former Vols offensive line coach Sam Pittman returns to Neyland Stadium and throws a scare into the Vol Nation.
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Alabama 27, Tennessee 20: After a four-loss season, the Crimson Tide is riding with Martin (TN) native Ty Simpson at QB. Bama is seeking revenge for last year’s 24-17 loss in Knoxville. The difference last season was UT’s Dylan Sampson, who rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns. The Vols don’t have another Sampson on the roster.
Tennessee 27, Kentucky 16: Mark Stoops did a great job at Kentucky for many years, but the Wildcats were one of the two worst teams in the SEC a year ago (1-7 in league play). Yet, they managed to upset a talented Ole Miss team. Another year, another transfer QB, another disappointing season. It won’t be pretty, but UT exits Lexington with a W.
Oklahoma 24, Tennessee 23: Josh Heupel got an emotional win against the team he led to a national title in 2000. But this will be a much-improved Sooner team thanks to Washington State transfer QB John Mateer. The Sooners also should have a healthy collection of receivers. Heupel’s close friend Brent Venables gets one of his best wins at Oklahoma.
Tennessee 47, New Mexico State 13: The Aggies contributed to Vanderbilt’s success last year, gifting the ‘Dores QB Diego Pavia and two solid assistants, including Jerry Kill. Those departures led the Aggies to a miserable 3-9 season. The 2,000-mile trip back to Las Cruces from UT will be a Lost Cause.
Florida 27, Tennessee 24. Tennessee football hasn’t won in Gainesville since 2003 with road warrior Casey Clausen at quarterback. So why in the world would you pick Tennessee? History keeps repeating itself. UT has taken better teams to The Swamp over the past 20 years and not survived.
Tennessee 30, Vanderbilt 20. Vandy QB Diego Pavia predicted the Commodores would beat Tennessee. He also predicted the Titanic would make it to New York (just kidding). After a slow start, the Vols outscored Vandy 29-0 in the final three quarters last year. You can expect another double-digit win for Tennessee football.
Tennessee’s regular season record: 8-4. Bowl trip: Tampa, Orlando or Nashville.
(Jimmy Hyams is a 6-time winner of the Tennessee Sportswriter of the Year and a 2-time winner of the Tennessee Sportscaster of the Year. He is the only person to win both awards. He has covered Tennessee football and Tennessee sports for 40 years. You can email him at: jlhyams@comcast.net).
