Aaron Murray is supposed to be biased. He’s a Dawg. He set the SEC career passing yards record while playing for Georgia.

But the ESPN analyst isn’t picking through Peach colored glasses when forecasting Saturday’s Georgia-Tennessee game. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

“I think Tennessee is in a better position right now to go out there and have success,” Murray told the Knoxville Quarterback Club earlier this week. “I think that Tennessee is more confident. I think Tennessee has a massive home field advantage.”

That massive advantage hasn’t mattered recently. While UT is 21-1 at home since the start of the 2022 season, Georgia has won eight in a row against Tennessee by an average margin of 38-13.

Josh Heupel’s usually high-powered offense hasn’t scored more than 17 points in four matchups against Kirby Smart.  The 2022 Vols scored 52 against Alabama, but only 13 against the Dawgs.

Tennessee’s longest win streak against Georgia is nine.

Can Georgia match that as the Vol Nation checkers Neyland Stadium?

Oddsmakers have made Georgia a 3.5-point favorite.

“I think it is a coin-flip game,” Murray said.

Which QB will outplay the other

Could the outcome simply come down to which team’s quarterback plays best?

Each is a first-year starter for their team.

Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar is off to a great start. In six quarters, the senior transfer who had no spring training at UT has completed 66% of his passes for 535 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions.

“He’s playing really effectively,” Smart said of Aguilar. “Great arm talent, really good athlete, can tell he understands the system, gets the ball out quickly, makes plays with his legs — which you have to do in this league.”

Unlike Aguilar, who had no power 4 offers coming out of high school, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton was a highly touted recruit who has waited three years to get his turn.

Stockton has completed 69% of his passes for 417 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.  While a limited sample size, the knock on Stockton is he has not seen open receivers downfield and he checks down quickly rather than allow a route tree to progress.

Stockton will make his first start in a hostile road environment. That was tough on Texas’ Arch Manning, who was shutout the first three quarters of a 14-7 loss at Ohio State, and it was tough on Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, who was 9 of 24 in a 24-13 loss at Oklahoma.

Will Neyland be equally tough on Stockton?

3 Keys have kept Tennessee offense as bay

Heupel’s offense has struggled against Georgia for three reasons:

1. The Vols wide receivers have been unable to beat press coverage.  Wideouts have gone from 16 catches for 256 yards in 2001 to 13 for 106, six for 61 and four for 44 the past three games.
2. When Tennessee spreads the field and gets favorable numbers in the box, the Vols haven’t been able to run effectively against Georgia. UT has led the SEC in rushing the past two seasons but averages 108 rush yards under Heupel against Smart.
3. Georgia has elite defensive talent. The Bulldogs might have had more defensive players drafted in the NFL over the past four years than any other program.

Tennessee must find a way to beat press coverage and run the football.

There is still a talent gap between these teams

Georgia isn’t the dominant team it was in winning back-to-back national championships in 2021-22.

NIL and the transfer portal have robbed Georgia of some talent and depth while aiding other teams who have plucked Dawgs from Smart’s roster.

But third-ranked Georgia is still very talent. Smart has 13 5-stars on his roster while UT has four (and one, offensive tackle David Sanders, hasn’t played yet.)

Georgia has 57 4-stars to UT’s 43.

The Vols have more 3-stars, 29-23, but those aren’t usually the difference makers.

Georgia’s offensive line has not impressed, especially in a 28-6 victory over Austin Peay.

Georgia receivers led the nation a year ago with 36 drops. This receiving corps promises to be better but the lack of competition in the first two games makes that still and unknown.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s quarterback play and offensive line have been better than anticipated.

But the Vols might be without three defensive linemen and will be without their best two corners, Jermod McCoy and Ricky Gibson III.

Georgia has also been known to sleep walk against lesser opponents then rise to the occasion against SEC foes.

Murray is right: This is Tennessee’s best chance to upset Georgia in years.

We’ll see if the Dawgs can survive a sea of orange on Saturday.

Prediction: Georgia 23, Tennessee 17.