That Week 0 start killed us, but I’ve been slowly making a comeback early this college football season since that 0-5 Saturday. Last week, I went 21-12, pushing our overall picks to over .500 for the year, 39-34, and on premium picks I was 3-2 for the second straight week. Now, it’s time to get above .500 across the board and start turning a profit.
As usual, we pick every game involving an SEC team plus every other game involving top 25 teams before we go to our five premium picks. This week, SEC play begins for eight teams, making four games there, and the other eight have non-conference games. Then we have one non-SEC top 25 matchup to pick plus two extra games for our premium picks.
Altogether, that gives us 15 games to pick and 28 picks to make from the spread, over/under and moneyline play. College football is really starting to heat up with September ball in full swing and the NFL regular season officially underway, so it’s time to have some fun once again. Here are our Week 3 picks to make this weekend.
Oklahoma -21.5 vs. Temple; Under 52.5
Brent Venables and the Sooners looked really good last week against the Michigan Wolverines, and their defense has been elite all season. That’s why they’ll cover. They won’t let the Owls score. John Mateer has been efficient in the OU offense, but OU won’t score enough to push the game over either, so take them to cover and the under.
Wisconsin +20.5 at Alabama; Over 46.5
Ty Simpson showed last week he can still lead the Crimson Tide to an elite season under Kalen DeBoer. With the Badgers coming to town, this is his chance at a quality Power Four win. Given what just happened, Bama will score at a high rate. Then they’ll call off the dogs in the third quarter, allowing Wisconsin to get a backdoor cover that pushes the game over. Think 42-28.
South Alabama +24.5 at Auburn; Over 55.5
Despite covering their first two weeks, the Tigers’ defense is still worthy of lots of questions. As a result, they’ll let the Jaguars hang in here in a shootout given Major Applewhite leading that program and having an offensive mind, but Hugh Freeze has this team resurgent with Jackson Arnold, so they’ll score a lot too. Think along the lines of 49-28.
Tennessee +3.5 vs. Georgia; Over 49.5
This is Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton’s first road game as a starter, the Dawgs are banged up on the offensive line, and the Vols may finally have the skill players to compete with their defensive backs. As a result, UT’s offense will score enough for this game to hit the over, and Stockton and co. won’t be able to torch their defense as much, so they cover in the biggest college football game of the week.
Missouri -27.5 vs. Louisiana; Over 47.5
Eli Drinkwitz has a Heisman Trophy contender in Beau Pribula, and he wants to continue to showcase that, which will prove that his offensive system is elite no matter who his quarterback is. The Tigers are 2-0 so far this year against the spread and have covered both times, so there’s no reason to bet against Mizzou doing the same thing this week.
UTEP +41.5 at Texas; Under 51.5
Steve Sarkisian’s pro-style offense with Arch Manning did a 180 last week against the San Jose State Spartans, but it moves the ball rather than go for big plays. As a result, the Longhorns won’t be doing enough scoring to cover against the Miners or to help this game hit the over. Their defense is good enough that they’ll stall UTEP’s offense, so anohter 38-7 score looks on the horizon.
USF +17.5 at Miami; Over 57.5
We have picked the Bulls to cover two weeks in a row, and it’s time to make it three. Alex Golesh is leaps and bounds smarter than Mario Cristobal, which will be enough for South Florida to keep this within two scores in what will turn into a shootout given Carson Beck against the Josh Heupel offense. As a result, this game will hit the over, even if The U wins.
Ole Miss -7.5 vs. Arkansas; Over 61.5
Lane Kiffin and the Rebels struggled to cover at the Kentucky Wildcats last week, but that was on the road, and Mark Stoops makes games ugly. Now back at home against an offensive team in the Arkansas Razorbacks, you can definitely expect this to hit the over, but Ole Miss is significantly better talent-wise, so they should cover too.
LSU -7.5 vs. Florida; Over 47.5
Billy Napier is losing the team early. They needed to beat USF, and morale is now really low because they didn’t. Now, they have to visit a refocused LSU Tigers team after last week’s ugly game. Brian Kelly and LSU are going to beat the Gators in a blowout. On paper, this matchup screams under, but Garrett Nussmeier will right the ship and light it up against a team that’s quit, so take the over and LSU to cover just on their scoring.
Eastern Michigan +24.5 at Kentucky; Under 47.5
As we already mentioned, Stoops likes to make games ugly. Also, the Wildcats have an atrocious offense right now and a quarterback controversy brewing. That’s enough for the Eagles to cover this spread, and it’ll be another ugly offensive outing that results in the game hitting the under. Kentucky still wins, but think along the lines of 28-10.
Texas A&M +6.5 at Notre Dame; Over 49.5
Through two weeks, the Aggies have failed to cover because their defense gave up too many points, but their offense is still good. Now, visiting the Fighting Irish, Mike Elko’s team shoudl be able to score enough to keep this within a touchdown, but again, their defensive issues will result in this game hitting the over. Expect another thriller here.
South Carolina -4.5 vs. Vanderbilt; Over 49.5
This might be the most intriguing college football game of the day. The Gamecocks and Commodores both have upper-echelon SEC quarterbacks, and they both have the same quality win, over the Virginia Tech Hokies. With Diego Pavia and LaNorris Sellers going head-to-head, you’ve got to think this game is going to hit the over, but being in Columbia, S.C., Shane Beamer’s team likely covers too.
Premium Picks
South Carolina -4.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Although Vandy’s win over VT was by more than South Carolina’s and was on the road when SC’s was at a neutral site, Sellers is better than Pavia overall. He just hasn’t proven it yet. This weekend should be his coming out party in a big home matchup, and Beamer’s team isn’t going to overlook this game. Since they have more talent, they should win running away.
Arizona +1.5 vs. Kansas State
Where is this spread coming from? The KSU Wildcats just lost at home to the Army Black Knights, and the week before that, they only beat an FCS school by three. Meanwhile, the other Wildcats team in the Big 12 is 2-0 and playing this game at home. This is the easiest underdog pick of the week, but we want more money, so it’s not the top college football underdog moneyline pick.
Arkansas at Ole Miss, the Over 61.5
Taylen Greene has looked like a Heisman candidate for two weeks in a row, and we know Kiffin is an offensive-minded guy. With the game in Oxford, he will make sure offense is the story, allowing Greene and his team to thrive, so I love the over here. Honestly, it should be set in the 80s, which will obviously make Sam Pittman’s head explode.
Colorado at Houston, the Under 45.5
Deion Sanders is already scapegoating his quarterback and making a change under center this week against the Cougars. Willie Fritz’s team only scored 27 against an FCS school, and they are running it 42 times a game while only throwing it 24. As a result, expect them to control the clock in this one, and with the Buffaloes’ quarterback issues, the under hits easily.
Tennesseey MONEYLINE vs. Georgia
College GameDay is back in Knoxville, and the Vols are facing UGA at home for the first time when they’ve had a team decent enough to pull out the win. This game being in the afternoon combined with Georgia’s issues last week against the Austin Peay Governors is enough to say Josh Heupel’s team pulls off the upset and snaps an eight-game losing streak by Tennessee in the series.
