Last week was brutal for us. We went 1-4 on our premium picks and 9-17 overall, however, success the previous weeks still keeps us above .500 overall at 64-61. Two weeks in a row, we just missed our moneyline picks in college football, as last week, the Nebraska Cornhuskers lost by just a field goal to the Michigan Wolverines. It’s time to make that money back.
As usual, we predict every game involving an SEC team and every one involving two top 25 teams, and we then give our premium picks of the week. Three league teams have a bye, another three have non-conference games, and the other five play each other, giving us eight league games. We also have two other top 25 games to call plus three extra in our premium picks, giving us an unlucky 13 games to find some luck.
Arkansas +4.5 vs. Notre Dame, Over 64.5
Sam Pittman’s mantra is to keep any game close and screw it up in the end. As a result, the Razorbacks will keep it close with the Fighting Irish, who still haven’t proven themselves, and Taylen Green will make it a shootout against a highly questionable ND defense. The Hogs may not win, but their play will push this game to the Over, and they will keep it within a field goal.
Utah State +23.5 at Vanderbilt, Over 58.5
Vandy burned me last week, but the Aggies are a different bunch. They lost to Texas A&M on the road by just 22, so they should be able to keep it within 23 against the Commodores. Like A&M, though, this game will be a shootout given what both offenses can do, so once again, this is an easy over to take as Clark Lea’s team wins by roughly 17.
Ole Miss -1.5 vs. LSU, Under 54.5
Lane Kiffin is ready to go off after his daughter’s recent revelation about dating a Tigers linebacker, and the Rebels are at home. Also, Brian Kelly’s team looks overrated now given how ugly the Clemson Tigers have looked, their only quality win, and how ugly they’ve looked themselves in FBS games since then. That’ll keep this game in the Under, as LSU won’t score enough.
Auburn +6.5 at Texas A&M; Over 52.5
Hugh Freeze’s Tigers were robbed from being undefeated going into this game, and the Aggies got away with a bad call in order to be undefeated going into this game. Amidst the combination, a quarterback duel between Marcel Reed and Jackson Arnold will push this game to hitting the over, and A&M may pull it out, but Auburn will keep it within less than a touchdown.
Tennessee -7.5 at Mississippi State; Over 63.5
Will Whiston’s injury, this game being in the afternoon and the Vols’ loss to the Georgia Bulldogs eliminate any chance of these Bulldogs catching UT napping. Jeff Lebby and Josh Heupel are too great offensive minds who will make this game hit a shootout, but Tennessee is going to cover in the end, winning by roughly 10 points in a matchup along the lines of 41-31.
Missouri -43.5 vs. UMASS; Over 56.5
Eli Drinkwitz loves to have Mizzou light it up against these bad teams, and the Minutemen may be the worst team in college football. As a result, he’s going to add to Beau Pribula’s Heisman campaign and have him light it up against Massachusetts. The Tigers may hit the over themselves in this game, and they’ll cover the insane spread.
Georgia -3.5 vs. Alabama; Over 52.5
Shockingly, this isn’t the biggest game in college football. However, the Dawgs are tired of hearing about how the Crimson Tide own them, and in their three losses under Kirby Smart since 2022, none of them have been in Athens. This is their chance to flip the narrative. Kalen DeBoer has a good quarterback in Ty Simpson, but Gunner Stockton has arrived too, and the two will push this game to the Over as UGA wins by a touchdown.
Kentucky +5.5 at South Carolina; Under 46.5
Cutter Boley looked like the answer for the Wildcats as they blew out the Eastern Michigan Eagles too weeks ago and scored 48 points. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are still playing with a LaNorris Sellers who is clearly not fully healthy. The combination will allow UK to cover, even on the road, but they’ll look more like a Mark Stoops team against an SC offense that’s bad already, so take the Under.
USC -6.5 at Illinois; Over 60.5
Bret Bielema’s Fighting Illini just gave up 63 to the Indiana Hoosiers, and the Trojans actually have a better offense this year. That means USC is easily going to win this game, and the over is a surefire bet. Lincoln Riley will do what Curt Cignetti did and announce to the world that his offensive mind hasn’t lost a step despite what happened last year.
Oregon +3.5 at Penn State; Over 51.5
James Franklin rarely wins these big games with the Nittany Lions. In a battle of two teams who have played nobody and have a ton to prove, Dan Lanning is where you put your money. The Ducks also seem to be very offensive-friendly, and Penn State can be that way, so Oregon will dicate the flow of the game, which turns this one into a shootout, so take the Over.
Premium Picks
Ole Miss -1.5 vs. LSU
This is always the type of game Kiffin is able to get his team ready to play before they drop one they shouldn’t later in the year. That it’s in Oxford, Miss., should allow Ole Miss to control how things go, and they have a lot more at stake here than LSU, which can afford to lose this game and still be in the College Football Playoff race.
TCU +3.5 at Arizona State
It’s weird that the Horned Frogs aren’t an outright favorite. They dominated the North Carolina Tar Heels to open the year, later handled the SMU Mustangs and look great with Josh Hoover at quarterback. ASU has looked awful all season. As a result, they might actually be a good moneyline pick, but there’s a better one in play, so just take them +3.5.
BYU at Colorado, the Over 48.5
Coach Prime and co. have rightly finally settled on Kaidon Salter at quarterback, who is the best option, and they have looked elite offensively as of late. Meanwhile, the Cougars have shown they can keep up, and the Buffaloes do have some issues on defense, so playing this game at home means a shootout is on the horizon that could come down to the wire again.
UCLA at Northwestern Under 44.5
Nico Iamaleava and the Bruins are averaging a miserable 14 points a game, and they now have an interim coach, but the Wildcats are only averaging 19 points a game. Their defense holds teams to 21 points a game, though, so expect this to be a 10-7 matchup one way or the other. It’s the easiest under to pick for the week by far.
Oregon MONEYLINE at Penn State
Again, how could anybody who follow Franklin’s program think the Ducks won’t win this, even on the road? Don’t sell Penn State’s win over SMU and the Boise State Broncos last year in the College Football Playoff. When they play elite Power Four teams, they always lose, and Oregon has a better roster. As a result, on the road, they go in and get this win.
