The last time Tennessee football beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Vols quarterback Casey Clausen was engineering a five-overtime thriller.
That was in 2003 – six Tennessee coaches ago.
The Vols have come close twice since then. Mount Cody blocked a field-goal attempt with his arm pit on the last play in 2009. Tennessee had a fourth-quarter lead with less than six minutes to go before falling 19-14 in 2015.
Otherwise, Nick Saban had his way at Bryant-Denny Stadium against Tennessee football, which, interestingly enough, Saban called Alabama’s biggest rival. He said it was harder to get his teams up to play Auburn than UT.
It won’t be hard for either team to get up for this Third Saturday in October clash. No. 6 Alabama (5-1, 3-0 SEC) is riding a five-game win streak since a season-opening loss to Florida State. Meanwhile, No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) has only one blemish – an overtime loss at home to Georgia after a missed field goal in regulation.
Saturday’s winner plants another flag toward making the College Football Playoff.
On the other side, the loser leaves little margin for error for the rest of the season.
Alabama leads the overall series 60-40-7 with a 12-4 record in Tuscaloosa.
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Here are five Tennessee football keys to the game.
Vols QB Joey Aguilar must have a great game
Aguilar has been the second-most pleasant surprise quarterback in the SEC (see: Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss). He has completed 65% of his passes for 1,680 yards and 14 touchdowns (second most in the SEC) with five picks.
Under his leadership, the Vols’ offense leads the nation in scoring (48.2) and is fourth in total yards (527.8). The Vols also lead the SEC in passing yards per game (317.8).
UT is third in rushing in SEC games only (173.3), but the Vols might not have leading rusher DeSean Bishop, who had a career-high 146 yards against Arkansas before suffering a second-half injury.
Wide receiver Braylon Staley also had a career game (six catches, 109 yards), but he too was hurt in the second half against Arkansas.
If Bishop and Staley aren’t 100%, that puts more onus on Aguilar to play well.
Considering Tennessee’s defense is one of the worst in the league, Aguilar and the Vols better figure out a way to score at least 27 points or they won’t have a chance.
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Tennessee football run defense needs to improve
Alabama doesn’t have a prolific ground game. The Tide average 126.5 rush yards per game and have rushed for 125 yards or fewer in four games this season.
But the return of Jam Miller sparked the attack. He averaged 89 yards in three games since coming back from injury, but he suffered a concussion at Missouri, and his status is uncertain.
Kevin Riley, who has just 183 yards in six games, is the next back.
If Miller can’t go, it impacts Bama’s run game and overall offense. With Miller as a threat, Tide quarterback Ty Simpson becomes more lethal.
Should Alabama run for more than 125 (without Miller), UT, which is allowing an eye-popping 213 rush yards in three SEC games, is in trouble.
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Harass Bama quarterback Ty Simpson
Simpson is arguably the best quarterback in the SEC. He has the top efficiency rating, the most passing yards (1,678) and the best touchdown-to-interception ratio (16-to-1).
Three outstanding receivers in Germie Bernard (28 for 412 yards), Isaiah Horton (21 for 270) and Ryan Williams (21 for 336) given him an arsenal of weapons. They have 12 touchdowns combined.
It’s likely Tennessee football will still be without All-American corner Jermod McCoy, who hasn’t played a snap this season after suffering a torn ACL in January. McCoy had a brilliant game against the Tide in 2024.
Considering UT’s secondary is statistically the worst in the SEC, the Vols must pressure Simpson. They lead the league in sacks with 26. Simpson has been sacked 13 times. If Simpson has time to throw, he’ll carve up UT’s secondary.
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UT defense must be more feast than famine
In additino to leading the SEC in sacks but having the worst defense in the SEC statistically (allowing 257.8 passing yards per game), Tennessee football has scored four defensive touchdowns but gives up 36.3 points per game, 15th in the SEC.
It seems UT’s defense makes two bad plays for every good one. That won’t cut it against Alabama.
Houston Nutt, the former SEC coach and now CBS Sports Network analyst, said at the Monday Knoxville Quarterback Club the Vols have to play an entire game like it did the third quarter in last week’s win over the Arkansas Razorbacks. In four possessions, UT forced two fumbles, one punt and stopped a fourth down.
“(Tennessee) is flying around,” Nutt said of the third period. “… You kept (Arkansas QB Taylen Green) bottled up. You were playing with suddenness and quickness. You ran to the ball in a bad mood. That’s what you want, but you’ve got to do it a little longer than (one quarter).”
Play near-mistake free
When Tennessee beat Alabama in Neyland Stadium last year, the Crimson Tide had 15 penalties and two turnovers. The Tide had 17 penalties when the Vols won in 2022.
Between those two games, when UT lost at Alabama in 2023, the Vols had eight penalties to Bama’s one.
This season, Tennessee football is 9th in the SEC in most penalties per game (7.33) while Alabama is third (5.33). The Vols had 10 penalties to the Hogs’ one last Saturday, keeping the game closer than it should have been.
Turnovers are certainly an important stat, but so are penalties. And if UT can’t stop committing infractions, the chances of winning at Bryant-Denny are slim.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Tennessee 27
