We went 13-9 last week and 3-0 on our best bets, so we’re now 32-28 on the year and 7-4 on our best bets. Finally, college football has a week’s worth of games worth watching. After a dull three weeks, they packed in a ton of top 25 games the fourth week of the year, giving us 15 games to pick overall. It’s time to dive in with our weekly gambling bets.
Auburn +7.5 at Texas A&M, Over 51.5
The Aggies are stumbling, contrary to what they’ve shown, under Jimbo Fisher, and the Tigers have slowly been on the rise with a 3-0 start under Hugh Freeze. This is the breakout game for them, as the offense torches A&M all day, and it starts the slide of Fisher’s program. Auburn moneyline is the actual play here, but take the over with Freeze’s offense.
Kentucky -13.5 vs. Vanderbilt, Under 50
Look, the Commodores are bad. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are back to what they always wanted to be under Mark Stoops. They’ll control this game from the start. It’s a type of game, a noon kickoff against an apathetic crowd, that screams for them to win in their typical boring fashion, so they cover, and this hits the under.
Clemson+2.5 vs. Florida State, Over 55
I know, the Tigers looked awful to start the season. However, the Seminoles’ win over LSU May have just been them playing over their head for a week. Clemson should still be the better team, and they won’t fall off the college football map that quickly. Playing at home, Dabo Swinney’s team has the edge, and the offense will finally come through, so take the over.
Oregon -21 vs. Colorado, Under 70.5
Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes have been the story of college football, but there’s no Travis Hunter, CU can’t run the ball, and the Ducks have Dan Lanning, a defensive genius, as head coach. As a result, the pressure Oregon brings while playing at home will result in Colorado finally waking up. Oregon wins easily, and Colorado doesn’t score enough for it to hit the over.
UCLA +4.5 at Utah, Over 52.5
With Cam Rising still hurt, the Utes, despite playing at home, are not in great shape. Chip Kelly seems to finally have the Bruins where he wants them. As a result, he has his breakout game to show that UCLA is in the college football national championship race. Kelly and co. are decent moneyline bets to win outright, and with this offense, they’ll cover.
Alabama -7 vs. Ole Miss, Under 54.5
Say what you want about the Crimson Tide, but they will be much better with Jalen Milroe in, despite how bad he is. Also, given all the outside talk, Nick Saban will be on a mission. His defense is still elite, and Lane Kiffin’s Rebels still haven’t been tested, so in front of that Tuscaloosa crowd, the defense leads Alabama to a dominating win and why the game hits the under.
Tennessee -21 vs. UTSA, Under 59
Yes, they’ve looked awful for two weeks, but playing back at home against a UTSA team wrecked by injuries should give the Tennessee Vols the spark they need. However, the offense still has questions. Given the fact that UTSA has injuries, including at quarterback, the combination means this game hits the under.
Arkansas +17.5 at LSU, Over 55
Although the Tigers are hitting their stride under Brian Kelly and the Razorbacks lost to the BYU Cougars last week, and although this is a night game in Baton Rouge, this is still a rivalry game. K.J. Jefferson will put up a fight, and that’s why Arkansas won’t allow LSU to cover, and this game will also hit the over.
Washington State +3 vs. Oregon State, Over 59
Everybody’s talking about Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but on the eastern side of the state, there’s another Heisman candidate flying under the radar in Cameron Ward. In the game featuring the two remaining Pac-12 teams, Ward will be the difference. This is his coming out party. WSU wins outright, and Ward is why this game hits the over.
Charlotte +28 at Florida, Under 49
They may have found their stride against the Vols, but the Gators still don’t win pretty. Meanwhile, the 49ers put up a fight for a half against the Maryland Terrapins. As a result, Charlotte to cover this spread is a good bet here, and given the ball-control style of play Florida enjoys, this will be an ugly defensive win that hits the under. Think 31-10.
UAB +42 at Georgia, Under 54
There is still no reason to believe in the Bulldogs’ offense, and until then, these spreads that are solely based on what they’ve done to the college football world the past two years must be ignored. Georgia wins, but they won’t cover against the Blazers, and because they will once again have a bad offense, this game hits the under.
Missouri -6 vs. Memphis, Over 51.5
Stay away from this bet. Mizzou is super unpredictable. Sure, they beat the Kansas State Wildcats, but the week before they barely beat the MTSU Blue Raiders. Meanwhile, the Memphis Tigers are 3-0. Playing at home and the low spread is why I’ve got Eli Drinkwitz’s team covering. His offense will do what it should do, so I’m also taking the over.
South Carolina -6.5 vs. Mississippi State, Over 48.5
I don’t want to overreact to the Gamecocks playing Georgia close. However, this is a night game in Columbia, and that screams for one of those epic performances from Spencer Rattler. MSU doesn’t have the players to exploit South Carolina’s issues on the offensive line, so Rattler puts on a show, they cover, and the game hits the over.
Iowa +15 at Penn State, Under 40
James Franklin and the Nittany Lions are playing well right now, but the Hawkeyes make every game ugly. Mother nature made this call. Rain is in the forecast Saturday night in Central Pennsylvania, so it’ll be a sloppy game that Penn State wins but Iowa keeps close with defense. Take the under, even at this low, because of Iowa and the rain.
Notre Dame +3 vs. Ohio State, Under 55.5
Yes, the Buckeyes were my national title pick. However, Kyle McCord has been underwhelming, he’s not mobile, and Ohio State has pass protection issues. The Fighting Irish, playing at home, should exploit that. As a result, while they may not win, Notre Dame should cover that spread, and their defense is why this hits the under.
Best bets of the week
Washington State +3 vs. Oregon State
Again, nobody in the college football world is paying attention to Cameron Ward. Oregon and Washington are much bigger deals, but Oregon State and Washington State should catch everybody’s eye. This is a moneyline bet if there ever was one. Put a ton of money on it, and you might hit with ease.
Oklahoma -14.5 at Cincinnati
Brent Venables may still have issues, but the Bearcats clearly aren’t the same team without Luke Fickell. The Sooners are 3-0 and flying under the radar. They’re more than capable of blowing out this team on the road, so this is just a horrible spread in general. It’s not a top 25 game, but take OU with ease.
Colorado at Oregon, Under 70.5
Oregon covering is a bit less of a sure bet, but the under is an easy call here. Shedeur Sanders won’t be able to do what he usually does this week, as Oregon will expose Colorado’s issues on the offensive line. It’s a safe bet that Colorado doesn’t cross the 30-point mark, so the under is the easiest play here.
