South Carolina had only two pre-snap penalties at Tennessee but quarterback Spencer Rattler was sacked six times.
No doubt, a hostile SEC environment can provide a significant advantage for the home team.
Alabama was good enough to overcome its mistakes at A&M. Tennessee and South Carolina failed miserably against Florida and UT, respectively.
Will Texas A&M be affected by Tennessee’s home crowd Saturday (3:30 pm kickoff)?
CBS analyst Gary Danielson will tell you no.
Statistics will tell you otherwise.
Neyland Stadium is sold out. Neyland will be checkered by the fans. They will be motivated by Danielson’s dissing. And Hall of Fame defensive back Eric Berry will be honored at halftime.
And don’t forget, in Texas A&M’s lone true road game of the season, it lost 48-33 at Miami, allowing Tyler Van Dyke to throw for 374 yards and five touchdowns.
Was that a fluke? Maybe. But it’s hard to deny that A&M was awful away from home against a quality opponent. And remember, two of the Aggies’ touchdowns at Miami came after a blocked punt and a muffed punt, with those drives going a mere 15 and 9 yards, respectively.
The Aggies come to Knoxville with the No. 1 run defense (84 yards per game) in the SEC. They lead the SEC in sacks (26) and tackles for loss (57). They have recorded at least six sacks in three consecutive SEC games.
Tennessee counters with the top rushing offense in the SEC (231.2 per game). It’s also worth noting that UT’s top three running backs have lost a combined 11 yards this season.
The Aggies’ pass defense would seem to be susceptible. Not only did Miami torch the secondary but Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe was 21 of 33 passing for 321 yards and three touchdowns – by far the best passing game of his Crimson Tide career.
Yet, A&M held Auburn to 56 passing yards and Arkansas to 132.
Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton is averaging 232.8 passing yards per game. And he’s only been sacked five times – once in each game.
Will Milton, like Milroe, have a career passing game against A&M? He might need to.
If Tennessee wins, here are three key reasons why:
Tennessee runs for at least 140 yards.
Alabama had 23 rushing yards against the Aggies and Arkansas 42. Auburn managed 144 but 125 came on quarterback runs or scrambles – which is not a big part of the UT offense. A&M’s front seven is outstanding, but UT has had success spreading teams out and running against favorable numbers in the box. And no team in the SEC has a trio of backs like Jaylen Wright (7.1 yards per carry), Dylan Sampson (6.9) and Jabari Small (6.0).
Milton is efficient on offense.
If Milton completes passes on all three levels, that not only will keep A&M’s defense off balance, but it will open up the run game for Tennessee. Milton’s average game this season is 20 of 32 for 233 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers should be good enough to beat A&M – if UT’s run game is also effective. Milton also needs to run at least five times to keep A&M’s defense honest on zone reads.
Home crowd impacts Aggies’ offense.
If A&M has pre-snap penalties and is late getting set in pass protection, then UT should put the Aggies behind the chains, making it difficult for offensive coordinator and quarterback Max Johnson to generate long drives. UT leads the SEC in sacks per game and could add to that total if A&M’s offense line is disrupted by crowd noise.
Texas A&M will win the game if these three things happen:
Johnson is given time to throw to solid collection of receivers.
The receiver corp is led by Evan Stewart, 6-foot-6 Noah Johnson and five-star tight end Jake Johnson – Max’s younger brother. While UT’s secondary showed improvement against South Carolina and Doneiko Slaughter returns, the defensive backs did get burned by Florida’s Graham Mertz and Texas San Antonion’s third-team quarterback, who was 18 of 20 in the second half. The secondary still has some proving to do.
The Aggies hold UT to less than 100 yards rushing.
A&M’s defense is better than Florida’s – which held UT to 100 yards on 30 carries. The Swamp’s crowd noise affected UT’s get-off in run blocking and so did the absence of center Cooper Mays, who is back in the lineup. If UT can’t run effectively, Milton will be asked to play at an All-SEC level for UT to win.
UT’s crowd doesn’t impact A&M’s offense.
If the Aggies play a clean game on offense – no pre-snap penalties – and stay ahead of the chains, UT will be hard pressed to hold A&M to less than 30 points. It’s worth noting that UT coach Josh Heupel is undefeated as a head coach when the opponent scores less than 30 points. It’s also worth noting that of Heupel’s 22 wins at UT, 18 have been by 17 or more points. Only four wins have been by a touchdown or less. Does that favor A&M in a close game?
One other note: UT gained 249 yards on 33 first-down plays against South Carolina.
It gained 395 yards on 31 first-down plays against UTSA.
In UT’s only loss this season, the Vols gained just 94 yards on 25 first-down snaps at Florida.
First-down production could be a key for Tennessee.
