We were somewhat ok in our overall college football bets last week, just turning a profit at 9-6, but we went 1-2 in our bets of the week, bringing us to 94-84 overall and 13-14 in top gambling picks. This week, all 14 SEC teams are in action with 12 playing each other, and there are three top 25 games plus two extra in our special bets, giving us 13 to call overall.
UConn +35.5 at Tennessee; Over 54.5
Only once all year has Tennessee beat a team by more than 35 points. The Vols beat the Virginia Cavaliers by 36. Whether it’s due to an early sluggish performance or UT pulling its starters late, the Huskies will cover this game. However, with Joe Milton III figuring things out, the game hits the over.
Ole Miss -3 vs. Texas A&M; Over 53.5
I’ve waited all year for the Aggies to be the collapse team of college football. It finally happens this weekend. Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Petrino will have a rift begin immediately, as Lane Kiffin is the perfect coach to cash in on that. He’ll step on A&M’s throat with this offense, so the Rebels cover and pour it on.
Arkansas +6 at Florida; Under 50.5
Despite a six-game losing streak, the Razorbacks have only lost one game by more than one score this year. Visiting the Gators won’t mean much since it’s a noon game, when The Swamp doesn’t get too rowdy. Sam Pittman’s conservative style and Florida’s bad offense will make this an ugly, low-scoring defensive game decided by a field goal.
Kansas State +4 at Texas; Under 49.5
Despite the Longhorns blowing out the BYU Cougars last week, the Wildcats blew out a Houston Cougars team that Steve Sarkisian’s kids struggled with. This is a tough one, but with Quinn Ewers still out, it’s hard to see Texas winning easily. Their College Football Playoff hopes are in trouble because of it, and it’s why this game hits the under while KSU covers.
South Carolina -16.5 vs. Jacksonville State; Over 55.5
Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks are positioned for a dominant finish to the season with the schedule getting much easier. In a matchup of two teams named the Gamecocks, Jacksonville State is a good lower-level program, but Spencer Rattler and co. decide to take advantage of the easy schedule left and start the rebound this week. Rattler’s play is why this hits the over.
Oklahoma State +5.5 vs. Oklahoma; Over 60.5
Everybody is sleeping on the Cowboys right now. Mike Gundy has the hottest team in college football, and they welcome to town a Sooners team that is reeling after a heartbreaking loss to the Kansas Jayhawks last week. With both offenses rolling, expect a shootout that hits the over, but Oklahoma State could potentially win this one outright.
Missouri +15.5 at Georgia; Under 54.5
For two years, the Bulldogs have been playing down to opponents. Brock Bowers is hurt. Carson Beck and Mike Bobo is a downgrade from Stetson Bennett and Todd Monken. The Tigers are coming off a bye while this is a trap game for UGA. All this means the offense won’t hum along, so this hits the under, and yes, Mizzou does cover.
Auburn -12.5 at Vanderbilt; Under 49.5
Hugh Freeze is an offensive mind, but the Tigers have been chugging along his first year thanks to defense. After how the Commodores played against Ole Miss last week, I think the under with Auburn is a good bet again, but even on the road, Vanderbilt is so bad, that Auburn should cover easily.
USC +3 vs. Washington; Over 76.5
Home field advantage seems to always matter more in Pac-12 play in November, and despite the Trojans struggling a lot, they should be able to give the Huskies a fight this week. Both teams had to fight through victories last Saturday, and USC should be able to pull off the win of the week in college football. Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr. and no Lincoln Riely defense is why this hits the over.
Mississippi State +3.5 vs. Kentucky; Under 45.5
Zach Arnett’s Bulldogs have pretty much hit par this year, so playing a Kentucky Wildcats team that always hits par under Mark Stoops should favor the home team at night. As a result, Mississippi State should easily cover, and yes, this will be one of those ugly, defensive games, so take the under. Playing in Starkville, Miss., at night suggests the wrong team is favored here.
Alabama -3 vs. LSU; Over 60.5
Both teams are coming off a bye week. The Crimson Tide have figured out how to use Jalen Milroe, and the Tigers have a Heisman candidate in Jayden Daniels. As a result, the over is easy here. Most notably, though, Nick Saban and co. have revenge on their minds from last year, and they still have more to play for, so they will cover and maybe even win by two scores.
Best Bets
Auburn -12.5 at Vanderbilt
This is our easy cover of the Week. Vanderbilt is that bad of a team, and if Auburn can beat Mississippi State by two touchdowns, they can easily beat Vandy by that. Given the stadium, it’ll basically be a home game for Freeze and co. anyway, so there’s no way Auburn doesn’t just blow them out and rolls to victory.
Colorado +13.5 vs. Oregon State
Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes are getting too much disrespect after struggling in October. They covered last week at UCLA, and this week, they welcome to town an Oregon State Beavers team that is coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss last week. The combination makes this spread awful. It’s not just an easy cover. An outright upset is possible.
Arizona MONEYLINE (+130) vs. UCLA
As far as the easiest upset goes, the Wildcats are rolling right now. They just shocked Oregon State last week, so they are riding high, and they now welcome Chip Kelly’s Bruins into town. Arizona will finally get the respect they deserve from the College Football world, pulling off another upset against a ranked Pac-12 team here.
USC vs. Washington, the Over 76.5
You’ve got two Heisman Trophy candidates, including last year’s Heisman winner. Lincoln Riley is coaching one of the teams. Both give up lots of points to elite offenses. I would set the over/under in this one at 100. It’s going to be one of those old-school Pac-12 games, one that every fan can enjoy.
Arkansas at Florida; Under 50.5
Sam Pittman’s conservative coaching, Florida’s horrible offense, and the fact that this is a noon game make the under here incredibly easy. The Hogs have changed offensive coordinators midseason, but they have a good defense and play ball control. As a result, I’m easily seeing a 20-17 style ugly college football game.
