Off The Hook will take a closer, in-depth look at the most important issues concerning Tennessee athletics every Friday.
Tennessee’s 2023 football season will be one of high expectations that could well end up with the Vols being one of the surprise teams in the nation – at least surprising for those that haven’t followed Josh Heupel’s resurrection of Tennessee’s once elite program.
Those that have kept a keen eye on Heupel know that he has something special brewing, whether it’s his ability to outpace Tennessee’s defensive competitors, have success recruiting against some of the top programs in the nation or have the Tennessee think tank come up with original methods of taking advantage of the NIL portal.
As I delve into the college football season, I find that checking on the over/under from gambling analysts is a good way to start. There seems to be good value in Tennessee. In fact, there seems to be great value based on how I think the Vols will play this season.
I’m no gambling expert and will never claim to be, but I found that most sportsbooks have Tennessee’s over/under win total at 7.5 victories this season. That doesn’t seem daunting whatsoever for the 2022 Vols. I’m not encouraging anyone to gamble. Let’s all pick our own vices. However, there seems to be some easy money to be made that is just floating around Las Vegas, Atlantic City or a phone app near you.
I find it very difficult to think that the Vols won’t win eight games this season. In fact, I think the Vols win nine games based on their schedule. This isn’t my official prediction. I’ll have that in August. However, the guys in Vegas have me pondering in June.
Let’s start with the wins, at least as I see them. The Vols will beat Akron, Ball State, UT-Martin, Missouri and Vanderbilt. That’s five marks in the win column.
As it looks now, the Vols will have significantly better talent than they had last year. I’m betting that will be on display this fall. There’s that gambling reference showing up again. I’ll try to keep that to a minimum, like a table minimum.
In addition the Vols five easy wins on their schedule, they also have two games that are almost surefire losses. The teams that still have a strong upper hand on the Vols haven’t changed. Alabama and Georgia are just on a higher level than the Vols currently.
The talent gap between Tennessee and the dynamic duo appears to be closing slightly, but it’s closer to glacial than light speed. That’s understandable. Alabama and Georgia are two of the top recruiting programs in the nation. They’re not going to be overtaken in talent overnight.
That leaves the Vols at 5-2.
I also think the Vols beat Pittsburgh on the road so now we’re at 6-2. Beating Pitt isn’t a guarantee even though the Panthers will be without former star quarterback Kenny Pickett who has moved onto the NFL. Of course, Pitt beat the Vols last season, but these will be two different teams. Pitt has a strong defense returning that excelled at sacking the quarterback last season. Heupel’s offense should negate some of that pass rush as his offense tends to get the ball out of the pocket quickly. Pitt, by the way, is not expected to be very good in the secondary.
Now, the Vols are 6-2.
This is when the SEC swing games come into play. Let’s run through them chronologically. First, Tennessee will play Florida at home in September.
The Tennessee-Florida series has been one sided recently, but that’s because of guys like Butch, Dooley and the other guy that is best forgotten. Tennessee should have won some games against Florida in recent history. Instead, the Vols have only won only one game since 2004. Florida was once an incredibly talented foe. That hasn’t always been the case. Things used to go much better for the Vols before Florida became the “Mighty Gators”.
It’s worth noting that Florida wasn’t a dominant program for decades until former Gator coach Steve Spurrier turned Florida into a national power. Florida was, in fact, horrible. Before Spurrier, the Gators won eight or more games in a season just eight times since former Tennessee coach and athletic director Doug Dickey was named Florida’s coach in 1970.
Urban Meyer also had incredible success at Florida, but those are two of the most successful coaches in the last 30 years of college football.
Florida won’t likely drop to the pre-Spurrier doldrums, but there is also no guarantee that they’ll become a national power again anytime soon. Recruiting, which was such a huge advantage for the Gators, is different nowadays. Regional bias doesn’t come into play nearly as much with prospects, the kind that Florida once thrived on. Regional talent is one of Florida’s best strengths. Now, players travel across the country to football camps, keep in touch via social media and have little reservation to make a business decision that best suits him and not the closest school nearby.
As for this season, Florida is trying to develop a running attack that can complement a passing offense that ranked No. 13 in the nation last season. If Florida can produce as much of a dual-threat offense as first-year Gator coach Billy Napier would like, Florida will be tough to defend. We’ll see. Many think that Napier, who is just 42-years-old, is a bit of a coaching prodigy. We’ll see. Many thought the same thing about former Florida head coach Dan Mullen. That didn’t work out too well.
For now, I have Tennessee beating Florida. That would lead to a 7-2 record. Take that Vegas.
After the Florida game, the Vols will travel to LSU. It will be Tennessee’s first visit to Baton Rouge since the Vols sent about a dozen defensive tackles into the game in what could have been a key goal line stand. The chaotic end to that game led to a heartbreaking loss and was one of the first signs that the Vols needed another head football coach as soon as possible.
The Tennessee-LSU game is truly a coin flip. Some national media have called it an “upset special”, that the Vols will march into Baton Rouge and surprise the Tigers. The current players on Tennessee’s roster that I’ve spoken to don’t think of a win against LSU – even on the road – as an upset at all.
LSU was 6-7 last season as the wheels came off in dramatic fashion. That led to LSU making a bold move to hire Brian Kelly from Notre Dame. The hire alone will make LSU better than they were last season when coach Ed Orgeron lost control of his team. That doesn’t mean Kelly, who was successful at Notre Dame, will flip the contender switch to the on position in his first season in Baton Rouge.
LSU doesn’t know what it’s going to do at quarterback even though they may have an inkling. The supposed next great Tiger signal-caller has transferred to Texas A&M to be the Aggies’ quarterback. Myles Brennan has shown flashes of being a good quarterback, but is still largely unknown after he suffered a broken arm before fall camp in 2021. Who knows how he will return this season. LSU’s offense will depend on what they can get out of their quarterback, whoever that might be. Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels will also compete for playing time at LSU this season and might just end up as the starter.
Offensively, LSU may have an elite running back with John Emery Jr. if he can stay on the field. He was academically ineligible for the entire 2021 season. Did I mention that Orgeron lost his team last year? Emery may be great, but he won’t have any gaping holes to run through based on last season. LSU’s offensive line was just horrible in 2021. To say it kindly, LSU’s offense has more questions marks than a Riddler suit.
LSU’s defense also has plenty of issues. They have a depleted secondary, which was once expected to be elite. That never happened. Prediction: The Vols will win because they have more stability, direction and Kelly has to repair LSU’s overall culture. That typically takes more than a year.
That puts the Vols at 8-2 in my scenario.
Tennessee will host Kentucky in October. The Vols can beat the Wildcats, but Kentucky’s roster is solid. It may not be spectacular after some departures to the NFL following the 2021 season, but the Cats have depth. That should help them later in the season. Kentucky also has quarterback Will Levis returning. That’s something for Kentucky to hang its hat on, along with a handful of defensive players that decided to return for their final year of eligibility. Still, the Vols will likely be favored.
A win against Kentucky combined with those other three swing games would put the Vols at 9-2.
With the over/under total behind them, the Vols can only get better moving forward. That leads us to South Carolina. The Gamecocks aren’t great. However, they play hard, with intensity and will likely surprise some team with an upset this season. That could certainly be the Vols. The Gamecocks were 7-6 in 2021 under former Tennessee graduate assistant Shane Beamer, who is South Carolina’s head coach.
Oklahoma quarterback transfer Spencer Rattler will make the Gamecocks better immediately. Still, he’ll need more skill-position players to emerge to even come close to his recruiting billing.
South Carolina’s defense struggled last season. The Gamecocks gave up an average of six yards per play in 2022. However, they do have seven starters returning, so the Gamecocks should be better on defense. Still, unless Rattler plays off the charts, South Carolina looks like a team that will float right around a .500 record. Tennessee should win that game even though it is in Columbia.
So winning all four swing games would put the Vols at 10-2.
Let’s be clear: I am NOT saying the Vols will win 10 games in 2022. They probably won’t. However, the Vols will win eight games if they split the four swing games discussed and everything else goes as planned. However, the Vols might go 3-1 in those swing games. I’m thinking that might be the case. That’s why that 7.5 over/under number just doesn’t make sense to me.
It seems like a lock that the Vols will win eight or more games this season. Right? That’s easy money. Yet it never is. The guys in Vegas always know something. That’s why I don’t gamble. I’ll keep my money in my pocket, but this Tennessee team sure looks like it will win eight or more games.
