If there’s one thing I can practically guarantee about the winner of the Heisman Trophy this season is that the award will not go to Miami quarterback Cameron Ward, despite the fact that he’s the current favorite to take home the hardware.

Why? Because no one ever leads wire-to-wire and wins the Heisman Trophy. Just ask former Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning. You don’t win the Heisman Trophy in September or even October, but too much hype can cause voter fatigue. Moreover, Ward won’t play nearly as difficult of a schedule as the other quarterbacks I’m about to address, who all play in the SEC.

Here are my Heisman rankings with some projections thrown in. In other words, I’m not trying to handicap; I’m projecting based on what I’ve seen with my eyes and what challenges the contenders face on the horizon.

Let’s start with Ward, who still has to be No. 1, on my poll, right? Nope. As of this very moment, I’d take Alabama’s Jalen Milroe over Ward because Milroe’s best days in coach Kalen DeBoer’s system are probably ahead of him. Ward hasn’t played any team of note and, yes, I’m aware that Miami played Florida this season. 

Milroe has led Bama to a win at Wisconsin, which isn’t a great team, but they’re a Power Four program. So, I’d take Milroe and his ability to play at a high level, despite having to learn a new system and navigate the challenges of replacing one of the best coaches in American sports history. 

Bama has a bye week so Milroe can’t help his standing this week. Ward and Miami play South Florida in a game that could be much closer than the 16 1/2-point spread might indicate.

Then, there are my next tier of quarterbacks, which include Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart and Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Perhaps flipping a coin would be the best way to determine which of the two are better contenders for the Heisman Trophy. So far, they’ve both looked fantastic against poor competition. However, I’d take Iamaleava based on his 51-10 win against North Carolina State compared to Ole Miss and Dart beating Wake Forest 40-6. Still, this one’s close as I believe Dart and Iamaleava are the most accurate quarterbacks in the nation. 

I’m trying (really hard) not just to rely on the eye test. My eyes tell me they’re both really special, but I like Iamaleava’s upside just a little bit more. The Vols play Oklahoma on Saturday. If Iamaleava excels, he could be the Heisman favorite next week. Ole Miss plays Georgia Southern this week. Dart could throw, well, darts blindfolded and beat the Eagles.

My next tier of Heisman quarterbacks were the two most known candidates when the season began: Georgia’s Carson Beck and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel. Both have played well this season, but not spectacularly. Moreover, unlike the quarterbacks listed above, I’m not sure that Gabriel and, especially, Beck aren’t a product of the players around them. True or not, that can hurt them in the Heisman voting. 

I also don’t see that “Heisman moment” coming from either as I haven’t seen anything that makes me believe they could put their respective teams on their shoulders and win a game. Ward, Milroe, Dart and Iamaleava could all do that and, most likely, will one day. Both Oregon and Georgia are off this week.

Therefore, if my ballot had to be cast today, it would look like this:

1. Jalen Milroe

2. Cam Ward

3. Nico Iamaleava

4. Jaxson Dart

5. Carson Beck