Well last week was bittersweet. We finally came out ahead on our best bets, going 3-2, but we were horrible on our college football gambling picks overall, going 9-20. That brings us to 36-58 on the year and 5-15 on our best bets. Remember, though, this is a marathon, not a sprint, and we have plenty of chances to come back this weekend.

There are four games between two SEC teams this weekend, six non-conference games involving league teams and two on a bye. Add in three top 25 games and three extra games for our best bets, and we have 16 games to pick this college football weekend. Let’s start with our standard SEC and top 25 games. It’s time to dive in.

SEC and top 25 bets

Nebraska -7.5 vs. Illinois; Over 42.5

The Cornhuskers are finally back as a college football program, and they get a top 25 matchup with a Fighting Illini team that’s more old-school and not as analytical. Oh, and Matt Rhule’s team gets them at home. Illinois won’t be able to handle the home crowd, so Nebraska goes off, and their offense allows the game to hit the over.

Mississippi State +6 vs. Florida; Under 58.5

Yes, the Bulldogs lost to the Toledo Rockets last week, but Jeff Lebby is building a program right now, and wild inconsistency will come with that. Meanwhile, the Gators are consistently bad. As a result, in an ugly matchup that results in the Under, MSU will not only cover the spread as underdogs, but at home they have a chance to win outright.

Kentucky -20 vs. Ohio; Under 41.5

Two of the worst offenses will go head to head in this one. The Wildcats at least have an elite defense, which should be enough for them to dominate the Bobcats. However, even with that, the game as a whole will hit the under, so UK is likely to win this one 28-7 or 20-0. It’ll be that ugly for Mark Stoops’ program.

UCLA +22.5 at LSU; Over 56.5

Eric Bienemy is a brilliant enough offensive mind against the most mismanaged defense in college football history, so he’s going to help the Bruins put up points against the Tigers. They’re also playing at home, and with that, this game will hit the over. It’s also why Brian Kelly’s team, which has failed to cover in three straight games, will fail to do so again.

Auburn -2.5 vs. Arkansas; Over 56.5

Hugh Freeze is rightly drawing skepticism as a head coach, and the Tigers now face a Razorbacks team that has been really good. However, Auburn is now at home, and the Hogs have a questionably defense, so the AU offense should come together, which is why they cover and this game hits the over.

USC -5 at Michigan; Over 43.5

Lincoln Riley and the Trojans may have finally found what they needed defensively. More importantly, he’s coming off a bye week, so the premiere college football matchup this weekend will see a fresh USC torch a Wolverines team that has been struggling as of late. USC may put up enough points to hit the over themselves.

Oklahoma State -2.5 vs. Utah; Over 52.5

Mike Gundy and the Cowboys would be in a lot more trouble if they were facing the Utes on the road, as Cam Rising should be considered a Heisman contender. However, playing at home, their offense will click on all cylinders, which is why they will cover and this game will hit the over. Utah will put up a fight, though.

Missouri -20 vs. Vanderbilt; Over 52.5

Despite failing to cover last week, Mizzou is still undefeated, and the Tigers have a good offense. Meanwhile, the Commodores have a good offense too despite losing to the Georgia State Panthers. The problem in this game is Vandy’s defense. That alone is why this game hits the over and Mizzou coveres. Expect a 48-20 type of blowout.

Texas A&M -22.5 vs. Bowling Green; Over 51

Mike Elko and the Aggies may have finally found their quarterback. As a result, they should manage to blow out the Bowling Green Falcons, and this time, it’s likely they do it with their offense, which is why it’s best to take them to cover and the game to hit the over. Watch A&M quietly climb back up the college football rankings after a tough Week 1 loss.

South Carolina -27.5 vs. Akron; Over 42.5

This seems like the type of game where Shane Beamer’s team just comes out flat and fails to win convincingly, but they have looked good enough the past two weeks to suggest they should dominate the Zips. Also, losing to LSU last week allows the Gamecocks to enter this game with a level of humility they didn’t show against the Old Dominion Monarchs.

Tennessee -7 at Oklahoma; Over 56.5

Although the Vols’ defensive line has been the story to this point, Jackson Arnold and OU should push their secondary, which is why this game will hit the over. However, Josh Heupel has been waiting to use this game as Nico Iamaleava’s coming out party, so UT wins in dominating fashion in a shootout, which is why they cover as well.

Ole Miss -36.5 vs. Georgia Southern; Under 67.5

Lane Kiffin and the Rebels are trying to turn Jaxson Dart into a Heisman contender, and it’s well deserved, but the defense has been underrated in this scenario. The Eagles won’t have an answer for Dart, but Ole Miss’ defense won’t let them score a lot, so Ole Miss covers, but the game doesn’t hit the over. Expect something like a 42-0 win.

Texas -44 vs. Louisiana Monroe; Over 52.5

Arch Manning’s first start will take the college football world by storm, and he will go off against a bad Warhawks team. Look for five total touchdowns, which is why the Longhorns will cover this insanely large spread. It’s also why, with Manning at the helm, they’ll be able to hit the over in this one.

Best bets of the week

Penn State -49 vs. Kent State

Anybody who saw the Golden Flashes against the Vols last week knows they may be the worst team in FBS play. Now they visit a Nittany Lions program that may not run it up against the Vols but can fall out of bed and win by 60. As a result, them winning by 49 is a pretty good bet in this scenario.

UCLA +23 at LSU

Again, LSU has failed to cover the spread in all three games this year. The Bruins may have gotten blown out by the Indiana Hoosiers, but that’s more than enough for Brian Kelly’s team to overlook this game. As a result, it’s hard to see UCLA winning this game by more than three touchdowns, which is what Vegas predicts.

Baylor MONEYLINE at Colorado

Somehow, the Bears are two-point underdogs in this game, but on the road against the Buffaloes while playing for their coach, Dave Aranda, who may be on the hot seat, it’s obvious they have the mental edge to win this game. CU is coming apart under Deion Sanders, which will only add to that.

Clemson vs. NC State, the Over 44.5

Anybody who has seen the Tigers after their embarrassing loss to the Georgia Bulldogs knows this offense is elite. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack aren’t proven defensively, so there could be a ton of scoring when Clemson alone has the ball. As a result, take the over in this game. It should hit with ease.

Ohio at Kentucky, the Under 41.5

Again, the Bobcats and Wildcats have horrendous offenses, and there’s no reason to believe that will improve in this game. Also, if Stoops gets a big lead, he’ll sit on it, so this could turn out to be the ugliest game of the weekend in college football. That makes the under an easy bet here.