We’re getting better on our best bets, but we are still playing from behind there and overall. A late touchdown by the Kentucky Wildcats against the Ohio Bobcats last week along with Dave Aranda’s inability to call a Hail Mary defense cost us a profit and from being perfect on our best bets. Now it’s onto Week 5 of college football.

Caleb’s Casino was 14-15 last week but 3-2 on best bets, pushing us to 50-73 and 8-17 overall. It’s time to end a historically bad September on a high note. there are 10 SEC teams playing each other, one playing a non-conference game and five on a bye. Add three other top 25 games plus three more on our best bets, and we’ve got 12 games to call. Let’s dive in and begin our comeback.

Week 5 SEC and top 25 college football bets

Ole Miss -17.5 vs. Kentucky; Over 52.5

The Rebels have blown out everybody they have faced this year, and everybody is overreacting to the Wildcats playing the Georgia Bulldogs close. We never fall for that. Lane Kiffn is trying to force Jaxson Dart into winning the Heisman, so he will torch them all over the field and cover in the process. That’ll be enough for this game to hit the over with Kentucky’s offense finding its groove.

Oklahoma State +5 vs. Kansas State; Over 54.5

Two top 25 teams who suffered upset losses last week could nuke their College Football Playoff hopes this weekend. The Cowboys and Wildcats were both in the running to win the Big 12. I’d say take Oklahoma State to cover the spread at home, as they finally found their groove offensively in the fourth quarter last week. That carries over, which is why this game hits the over.

Texas A&M -4 vs. Arkansas; Over 51.5

Last week would suggest the Razorbacks should win this game, but the Aggies were still getting acclimated to Marcel Reed. They’ll be more adjusted this week, and the Hogs have questions on defense despite the offense really looking good under Bobby Petrino. Shutting down Auburn means little. As a result, A&M covers, but both teams find their groove offensively, so this game hits the over.

Auburn +2 vs. Oklahoma; Under 46

Speaking of the Tigers, this team may have already quit on Hugh Freeze, and the offense is a disaster. However, they are playing at home against a Sooners team that is truly horrendous offensively as well. The under is the best play hear, but Auburn is a great pick to cover this spread, and they could actually win outright.

Notre Dame -6.5 vs. Louisville; Over 45

Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish won’t make the mistake they made again facing the Northern Illinois Huskies realizing what’s at stake with the College Football Playoff. They are significantly better than the Cardinals and playing this game at home, and Jeff Brohm’s lack of defense should allow them to score at will. Notre Dame wins by double digits and may run it up.

Mississippi State +39 at Texas; Over 62.5

The Longhorns still have quarterback questions with Quinn Ewers’ health and Arch Manning in and out. Meanwhile, MSU’s offense keeps finding itself late in games. As a result, expect both teams to score a lot early with some Texas offensive mistakes adding to MSU’s score. Then Texas pulls away in the third, so the game hits the over, but they don’t cover.

Penn State -19 vs. Illinois; Over 47.5

A late touchdown by James Franklin last week saved us as he covered against the Kent State Golden Flashes, and while the Illinois Fighting Illini are undefeated after a big win at home against the Nebraska Cornhuskers last week, facing Penn State is a different animal. Take Franklin’s team to dominate, and Bielema’s defense won’t be able to stop them, which is why this hits the over.

Alabama +2.5 vs. Georgia; Over 48.5

Welcome to the biggest college football game of the week. The Crimson Tide have something to prove at home and have looked great, but it’s hard to believe Jalen Milroe is a fit for this offense against elite competition. Kalen DeBoer, meanwhile, won three games against Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks while with the Washington Huskies, and Lanning runs that program like the Bulldogs.

Taking all that into account along with the fact that the Dawgs barely beat the Wildcats, Alabama at home seems like a great pick to win outright. I can’t go that far. However, enough factors favor them for me to say they’ll cover the spread, and that leaves room for them to potentially win this matchup outright. Sure, UGA always plays down to competition, but too many other things work against them.

LSU -22.5 vs. South Alabama; Over 65

Brian Kelly and the Tigers are beginning to find their groove with Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback, so against a first-year head coach in Major Applewhite leading a Group of Five program in the Jaguars, they should be able to cover pretty easily. Given LSU’s defensive woes and Applewhite’s focus at South Alabama, this game should hit the over too.

Best college football bets of Week 5

Ohio State -23.5 at Michigan State

The Buckeyes have beaten every team by at least 35 points, and they are now coming off a bye to face a Spartans team that has been solid under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith but has also looked ugly in wins. Take Ryan Day’s team to absolutely blow them out of the water. This one will get hideous before the first half ends.

UCLA +26 vs. Oregon

We had the Bruins as our underdog to cover above all other college football teams last week too, and they’ll do it again. While the Ducks have found their rhythm, this seems like just too much for a home game on UCLA’s end given the fact that Oregon has been up and down since the start of the season, so take them again.

South Alabama at LSU, the Over 65

Again, LSU has no defense, and now Harold Perkins Jr. is out for the year. South Alabama has a top 10 offense with an offensive minded coach in Applewhite. Combine that with what LSU’s offense can be, and honestly, I might even take an alternate line of this game getting into the 80s if possible. Thing something along the lines of 56-24.

Oklahoma at Auburn, the Under 46

Both teams benched their quarterbacks last week in losses, and neither knows what to do going forward. The Sooners have a horrible offensive line, and the Tigers have a horrible offensive system with even worse quarterback play. What does this mean? Well, an extremely ugly, tunorver-laden SEC matchup is here. This could be like that Auburn-Mississippi State 3-2 game from back in 2008.

BYU MONEYLINE at Baylor

How the Bears are favored in this game is beyond me after the way they just lost to the Colorado Buffaloes. The Cougars are on a roll, and that dominating win over Kansas State last week has them eyeing the Big 12 championship and that potential College Football Playoff spot. They aren’t going to let that slip away against Baylor.