With the first four games in the rear, Tennessee Football is all but guaranteed a 10-2 record at worse. Their only toss-up games are the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs, and according to the ESPN FPI, their only projected loss is at UGA, where they have a 45 percent chance of winning.
Simply put, the Vols have a very legitimate shot at going undefeated. In fact, since they have a greater than 80 percent chance of winning every other game per the FPI, it’s safe to say they have a better chance of going undefeated than they do of going 9-3.
That needs to be a goal of Tennessee Football. Sure, in a 12-team College Football Playoff, 11-1 will be more than enough to get an SEC team in. However, it doesn’t guarantee that the Vols will avoid a road game in the first round of the CFP, which is most important.
There’s a real chance five SEC teams go 11-1 this year: The Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, Missouri Tigers and Vols all doing so is on the table. If that happens, given the CFP format, four teams will have to play in the first round, and their are only four teams who can host games.
Considering the fact that the Big Ten will inevitably have a couple of playoff spots, and in that scenario, an 11-1 team from the league is almost certain to play on the road. Of every team mentioned, only Mizzou plays a schedule remotely as easy as UT, so those two could be in a fight to avoid a road playoff game.
Taking that into account, the expanded playoff hasn’t changed anything for Tennessee Football. Rocky Top needs set a goal of going 12-0. If they do that and then lose in the SEC Championship game, they’ll be locked in to a home spot, and if they win that, they’ll get a bye.
Speaking of that, this is another reason UT should take seriously the prospect of going undefeated. There’s a real debate over whether or not a team should try to win its conference title game for an automatic bye or just throw it and get a home playoff game in the first round.
This is true for two reasons. First, winning a first-round home CFP game and winning a conference title game get you to the same spot, the quarterfinals, but the home CFP game will be more difficult in the case of the SEC. If you rest your starters in the title game, that’s effectively a bye.
More importantly, though, if you get the 5-seed, you’ll get a Group of Five team at home in the first round of the CFP and then the No. 4 seed in the second round, which will likely be a Big 12 or ACC Championship team significantly worse than SEC or Big Ten at-large teams, who will occupy the 4-10 spots.
In short, a 5-seed is better than a 1 or a 2-seed in this system. However, in order to have that option heading into conference championship weekend, the Vols need to be undefeated. At that point, they’ll be able to choose whether or not they try to win that game. If they are 11-1, though, a road CFP game is on the table.
There are numerous flaws with the CFP system that will dictate strategies for certain teams, but going undefeated is the ultimate reward for that strategy. Tennessee Football can legitimately do that this year, so they Vols should put lots of their eggs in that basket.
