Arkansas ranks No. 13 in the nation in total yards per game, racked up 648 yards against Oklahoma State, features one of the SEC’s top running backs and scored 138 points in a three-game stretch.
Yet, the Razorbacks aren’t feeling good about themselves.
“We’ve got a confidence problem,” Arkansas’s head Hog, Sam Pittman, said.
That’s bad news for an Arkansas team (3-2) about to face the nation’s No. 1 defense.
It’s good news for fourth-ranked Tennessee (4-0).
Arkansas’s attack under first-year offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, started fast, scoring 70 points in the opener against Arkansas Pine Bluff.
But in two SEC games, the Razorbacks have combined for 41 points and 356.5 yards per game.
Part of the problem is quarterback Taylen Green. The Boise State transfer was brilliant against Oklahoma State, but has struggled the last two games, against Auburn and Texas A&M.
Green has completed just 54% of his passes and has thrown as many interceptions (5) as touchdowns. He has been pressured on 41.5% of his snaps, one of the highest rates in the country. That has impacted his accuracy and decision making. And he’s been sacked 12 times.
“We have a quarterback that’s not confident,” Pittman said.
If you’ve got a perplexed quarterback, you’ve committed nine turnovers, fumbled 12 times (fortunately losing only four) and you’re offensive line is banged up, you don’t want Tennessee coming to town.
But that’s exactly what will happen Saturday at 7:30 pm (ABC). Tennessee is favored by 13.5 points.
The Vols allow only 50.8 rush yards per game (second in the nation) and 176 total yards (first in the nation). Tennessee’s defensive line ranks among the nation’s best and deepest.
Arkansas counters by averaging 212 rush yards per game, led by Utah transfer Ja’Quinden Jackson, who is third in the SEC in rushing (101.8 per game) and second in touchdowns (9).
It’s hard to imagine a defense that throttled Oklahoma and has allowed just two offensive touchdowns this season won’t hold its own against the Hogs.
But Tennessee hasn’t faced a quarterback as mobile as Green (331 net rushing yards) or a running back as good as Jackson. Or an offense that converts 55.4% on third down.
It’s reasonable to expect Arkansas to hit on some splash plays. But it’s also reasonable to expect quite a few three-and-outs for the Hogs as Tennessee has limited opponents to a staggering 9-of-53 on third downs.
Arkansas’ defense is tough to run against. It allows just 93 yards per game. It held Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon, who led the nation in rushing last year, to 49 yards on 17 carries. But it is giving up 226.4 pass yards per game, 14th in the SEC.
The Hogs have 10 sacks and six interceptions. All-SEC defensive end Landon Jackson, who had two sacks against A&M, will be a problem for the Vols’ offensive tackles. Linebacker Savian Sorey leads the team with 32 tackles and four tackles for loss. Safety TJ Metcalf tops the team with three interceptions.
Watch for Tennessee to be more aggressive with its play calling against Arkansas than it was in protecting a lead against Oklahoma’s stout defense. And watch for the Vols to get a quick start. They have outscored foes 78-3 in the first quarter.
Quarterback Nico Iamaleava should find holes in the Hogs’ secondary, if given time. He’s completed 69.3% of his passes for 223 yards per game with four turnovers. But he needs help from a receiving corps that has played well, but not exceptional.
Running back Dylan Sampson has been exceptional. The junior is averaging 112.3 rush yards per game and leads the SEC with 10 touchdowns. He’s also a threat in the passing game.
Interestingly, Arkansas starts two Tennessee transfers: defensive back Deneiko Slaughter is third on the team with 27 tackles and Addison Nichols is the center.
The teams have met just 19 times, but several outcomes were memorable.
In 1998, undefeated Tennessee needed a late fumble by quarterback Clint Stoerner to pull out a 28-24 victory and maintain its march toward a national championship.
The next year, UT was ranked No. 3 and still in the national title hunt when the Hogs upset the Vols 28-24.
In 1992, the 25-point underdog Hogs upset the Vols, the first in a three-game losing streak that led to the firing of John Majors.
In the 1990 Cotton Bowl, Tennessee’s Chuck Webb ran for 250 yards in a Vols victory.
One other note about this series: Arkansas has won three in a row in Fayetteville.
Here are several keys to the game:
Tennessee needs to stop Arkansas on third down and keep Green in the pocket.
It needs to stifle Jackson and force the Hogs into passing situations.
It needs to rush for at least 200 yards to strike a balance that will open up the pass game.
It needs to get a fast start to silence the crowd.
It needs to be efficient in the passing game.
Prediction: Tennessee 31-17.
