There was once a time when losing to an SEC team with a winning record on the road in a night game was no reason for panic if it was your first loss. Somehow, though, Battered Vol Syndrome has crept into Tennessee Football and stuck there after the Vols’ 19-14 loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday.
It’s probably most likely due to the way they lost, as a Josh Heupel team shouldn’t have such trouble putting up more than 14 points. However, maybe we’re overthinking this in a new era. Could it just be that the fundamentals of college football haven’t changed in 50 years and that freshmen quarterbacks are always going to be vulnerable in these situations?
If you’re not willing to accept that based on the idea that the sport is in a new era, then you should at least accept what also comes with that new era: parity is stronger than ever, and Tennessee Football is not immune to that. The Vols have lost talent in the transfer portal just like everybody else.
So, accepting that, let’s go to the advanced metrics. All of a sudden, the Vols’ loss to the Hogs tells a completely different story than the one everybody is telling you. Look no further than the ESPN FPI breakdown of current teams to understand what’s really going on.
Arkansas is actually No. 24 in the FPI with a strength of record at No. 28. Their strength of schedule is No. 15, and before facing the Vols, they were literally two plays away from being undefeated. Sure, the perception was out there that Sam Pittman was losing his program, but it didn’t reflect how good they were.
Losing a non-SEC game to the Oklahoma State Cowboys hurt that perception, as it takes away from the luster of facing an SEC team on the road, but again, the parity of college football will lead to more parity among Power Four schools. Oklahoma State is a good Big 12 team, and the Hogs lost to them in double overtime on the road.
What about Tennessee Football? Well, the Vols have the No. 19 ranked strength of record, and their strength of schedule is No. 51. In case you’re wondering, every single team with a strength of schedule higher than them already has a loss on the season. Now more than ever, playing a real schedule will cost you games.
Taking it a step further, Tennessee Football has played a majority of its games away from home this year, and date is clear that the home vs. road crowd matters. When you’re breaking in a new quarterback and dealing with injuries at times on the offensive line, that’s a recipe for disaster. Beating the Oklahoma Sooners still has to count for something.
Also, look no further than the AP Poll to see how schedule strength is affecting rankings. No. 1 through No. 4 are all in the bottom 10 of schedule strength among Power Four teams. Taking that into account, the only reason teams like Tennessee, the Georgia Bulldogs and even the Alabama Crimson Tide have losses is the quality of their schedules.
With all of this being said, the Vols’ loss to the Hogs is no cause for concern just yet. It could be, but the growing parity among at least Power Four teams in college football and the expanded 12-team playoff is showing it to be even less important than it would have been five years ago.
Remember, Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide often got upset. In fact, back in the BCS era, when only two teams played for the national championship, two of Saban’s four title teams lost home games: the LSU Tigers lost to the Florida Gators in 2003, and Alabama lost to the Texas A&M Aggies in 2012.
By today’s FPI standards, both losses would be worse than the loss Tennessee Football suffered at Arkansas, and that’s pre-playoff and pre increased parity. As a result, don’t panic Vol fans. If UT handles Florida this weekend, Josh Heupel’s team is back on track.
