A rough week for us returned in college football as we went 8-10-1 on our overall bets last week. However, we did go 3-1-1 on our best bets. Now, we are 76-101 on overall bets and 16-23 on our best bets. This week, 15 SEC teams play, 14 against each other, giving us eight games plus one other top 25 games and FOUR best bets on top of that. Let’s go ahead and dive in with these 13 games.
SEC and top 25 bets
Missouri -4 vs. Auburn, Under 49.5
Hugh Freeze has no offense, and it doesn’t matter that his team is coming off a bye. It also doesn’t matter that Mizzou was exposed as a fraudulent undefeated team two weeks ago. In a matchup of the Tigers, Mizzou will win because Auburn can’t score, which is why they will cover and the under is the play in this one.
Oklahoma -1.5 vs. South Carolina, Over 41.5
Take the Sooners at home. Despite their blowout loss to the Texas Longhorns, Brent Venables’ team is significantly more talented than the Gamecocks, and this line is an overreaction to what happened last weekend in Tuscaloosa. Shane Beamer’s team isn’t consistent enough, and neither is his defense, so take the over as well.
Tennessee +3 vs. Alabama, Over 56.5
This would be the college football game of the week if not for an epic SEC matchup later. Bama has looked hideous since the second half of facing the Georgia Bulldogs, and they don’t run a 3-3-5 defense, so the Vols’ offense should have what it takes to beat them. At the very least they’ll cover, and with the offense returning, the game hits the over.
Illinois +3.5 vs. Michigan, Over 44.5
Never overreact to one ugly game. The Fighting Illini struggled with the Purdue Boilermakers last week because they were looking ahead to facing the Wolverines this week. Even with Michigan coming off a bye, Bret Bielema and co. will make this a fight, and their offense could do enough to pull off an upset. It’s certainly enough for this game to hit the over.
Mississippi State +18 vs. Texas A&M, Over 55.5
For the second straight week, the Bulldogs are about to lose to a really good team but cover. Jeff Lebby’s offense is figuring it out, and that’s making them more and more dangerous for top-level teams. As a result, playing this game at home, they should do more than enough to hit the over, and that should allow them to avoid losing by 18 points as well.
LSU -2.5 at Arkansas, Over 56.5
Stay away from this game at all costs. The Razorbacks are at home and coming off a bye, and the Tigers just got an emotional win over the Ole Miss Rebels. It’s a classic trap game. However, LSU’s offense is really coming together, and they are now right back in the College Football Playoff race. That combination is enough for me to say they’ll cover while this game hits the over.
Vanderbilt -26 vs. Ball State, Over 56.5
Fading the Commodores has worked out horribly for me this year, so I’m not going to do it now. It may be a huge spread for Vandy, but I think they cover against the Cardinals with this offense that has been humming recently. That offense alone is why this game hits the over as well, as they may get it their by themselves without any help from Ball State.
Texas -4.5 vs. Georgia, Over 56.5
In the game of the week, I’ve got the Longhorns covering with their offense over the Bulldogs. They had a much easier time dismantling OU last week, and UGA has too many internal issues with Kirby Smart shoving a player, the discipline issues and the loss to Bama followed by an ugly win two weeks later over MSU. Steve Sarkisian’s team wins comfortably. Both offenses are rolling, so take the over.
Florida +1.5 vs. Kentucky, Over 42.5
Billy Napier and the Gators have new life after losing to the Vols in overtime despite Naper coaching that game away. Mark Stoops’ Wildcats can’t be too excited to keep the season going after last week’s loss to Vandy. As a result, Florida covers with its newfound confidence and should be able to win outright. The over/under is just too low, though, so take the over.
College football best bets
Oklahoma -1.5 South Carolina
Yes, OU covering is the easiest cover bet of the week for the favorites in college football. They are just a far superior team, and it’s hard to see the Gamecocks did anything but expend all their energy last week against Bama and are now demoralized for coming up short. The combination will work against them going forward.
Nebraska +6.5 at Indiana
Matt Rhule takes a one-loss Cornhuskers team to visit an undefeated Hoosiers team. That doesn’t look right when you consider the college football traditions of each program, so just by vibes I’ve got Nebraska covering. Now, you could make a case that they will win outright, but playing in Indiana makes that a tricky proposition.
Oregon Purdue the Over 60.5
With the Ducks figuring things out and the Boilermakers’ offense now on a tear, I’m seeing points galore in this game, particularly with Oregon having to travel three time zones. That’ll mess with their defense, which will allow Purdue to put up a lot of points, and Oregon will put up a lot on their own by virtue of just being better.
Florida State at Duke, the Under 41.5
Not only do the Seminoles have the worst offense in college football, but the Blue Devils win with defense. They’ll cash in on FSU’s hideous offense and make sure this game hits the under. Even at the low 41.5, this game is an easy bet. There’s no way FSU will score enough or Duke will try to score enough for this game to get into the 40s.
SUPERDOG – Colorado upsets Arizona
Last week, we had a push by projecting the Kansas State Wildcats would cover at the Colorado Buffaloes. Well, this week, we’re back to picking Coach Prime’s Buffs. Deion Sanders’ team is significantly better than last year and even last month, so they will be erratic at times, and part of that erratic play is upsetting this year’s Arizona Wildcats team.
