Ok, so we went through two months of the college football season struggling significantly. After going 9-11 overall last week and 2-3 on our best bets, we’re now 96-122 on the year and 20-29 on our best bets. However, they remember what you do in November, so we’re ready for a baller month of gambling to get back on track.
This week, we’ve got 12 of the 16 SEC teams in action, and 10 of them play against each other, which gives us seven SEC games to call. There are two others involving top 25 teams, and we added five different ones for our best bets, giving us 14 to call on the weekend. Let’s dive in with our college football gambling picks.
SEC and Top 25 college football gambling picks
Penn State +3 vs. Ohio State; Over 46
They don’t always fail in big games under James Franklin, and the Nittany Lions actually usually give the Buckeyes trouble when the game is in Pennsylvania. As a result, the momentum they are riding combined with OSU’s issues is why I’ve got PSU covering, not necessarily winning, in the top five matchup of this week in college football. They’ll do it with offense, so take the over.
Arkansas +7.5 vs. Ole Miss; Under 53.5
All of a sudden, the Razorbacks look like a legitimately dangerous team, especially at home. Although Lane Kiffin’s Rebels rebounded with a win over the Oklahoma Sooners last week, that’s a bad team, and they still look like a lot of mercenaries. Also, their offense looks a lot worse. As a result, they’ll struggle to score enough at the Hogs, which is why they won’t cover, and this game hits the under.
Auburn -7.5 vs. Vanderbilt; Under 48.5
No serious person thinks the Commodores are better than the Tigers despite what we’ve seen to this point. There’s a reason Auburn is favored by more than a touchdown at home. Clark Lea’s team is getting a bit worse offensively as the season wanes on, and Auburn has a good defense, so this hits the under. As long as Hugh Freeze’s team doesn’t turn it over at home, they should win easily.
Maine +35.5 at Oklahoma; Under 45.5
Brent Venables and OU are reeling less than two weeks after firing offensive coordinator Seth Litrell. A home game against an FCS program is exactly what they need to somewhat get right. However, the offense is still a disaster, one of the worst in college football, so they won’t score enough to cover, which is why this game hits the under as well.
Florida +14.5 vs. Georgia; Over 51.5
Billy Napier’s Gators have gotten significantly better in recent weeks, and the Bulldogs never play up to their capabilities on a consistent basis. As a result, with both teams coming off a bye and UGA looking ahead to Ole Miss and the Tennessee Vols, Florida will give them a scare. Their offense is good enough to push, so they cover, and the game hits the over.
Mississippi State -17 vs. UMASS; Over 60.5
After showing improvements for weeks in multiple losses, Jeff Lebby’s team then got embarrassed by the Hogs last week. However, their offense is still looking better, and they get a bad Minutemen team at home, so this is the perfect game for it all to come together. MSU dominates with its offense, covering while this game hits the over.
Tennessee -17.5 vs. Kentucky; Under 45.5
Given the fact that the Vols are coming off a bye with maybe the best defense in college football, they should shut down a historically bad Wildcats offense. In fact, Kentucky may not even cross midfield. UK’s inability to score is why this game will hit the under, but the Vols will score just enough to still cover, maybe winning this game 21-0.
South Carolina +3 vs. Texas A&M; Over 43.5
Doesn’t this just feel like a letdown game? The Aggies are the new hot program in college football, and they are traveling to face a dangerous Gamecocks team. This is the type of game where Shane Beamer’s team will step up, and they will keep it extremely close. Shockingly, their offense will help this game hit the over while they cover as well.
Pittsgburgh +7.5 at SMU, Over 56.5
Most models say there is a 50-50 chance the Mustangs cover this touchdown spread. The easy play here is the over, as both offenses are elite. However, the Panthers showed they have a solid defense last week too. As a result, take Pitt to do enough to keep this within a touchdown despite being on the road at night, so they cover.
Week 10 BEST college football bets
Michigan +14.5 vs. Oregon
It’s the three time zones rule. Big Ten teams have been horrible against the spread traveling three time zones, and the Ducks are doing that against the Wolverines this week. That combined with Oregon riding a bit too high is why Michigan will manage to avoid losing this game by two touchdowns. They could make this an ugly game.
Nebraska -7 vs. UCLA
The three time zones rule also is the two time zones rule, and the Bruins are a bad team. They will visit a Cornhuskers program on the rise under Matt Rhule that should have beaten Ohio State last week, so take Nebraska to win this game in what could turn into a blowout. I think they actually win this game by 21, not just a touchdown.
Louisville at Clemson, the Over 62.5
An ACC matchup that could have huge College Football Playoff implications, the Cardinals do have an offensive guru in Jeff Brohm, even if he makes tons of mistakes with clock management. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ offense has come together. As a result, bank on a shootout here. If nothing else, it’ll be a shootout because Clemson gets a big lead and lets Louisville score a lot late.
USC at Washington, the Under 55.5
Lincoln Riley’s offense has completely lost its magic, and the Trojans have been awful on the road. Going to Seattle to face a Huskies team that makes things ugly at home will only make it worse for them. As a result, the under is an easy play here. Washington will try to control the clock, so look for a 24-17 type of score in this game.
College Football SUPERDOG of the Week
Oklahoma State over Arizona State
Penn State and Texas A&M are three-point underdogs we have covering, but the Cowboys are a better get as four-point underdogs. They have the offense, and they actually could match up well with the Sun Devils. It’s not likely for a Mike Gundy team to lose five straight as they have, so being due for a win while playing a winnable game at home makes Oklahoma State our Week 10 college football UPSET team.
