If Tennessee’s win over Alabama in 2022 put the Vols on the College Football Playoff map, a win over Georgia on Saturday would shake the globe of the sport.

The Vols haven’t beaten Georgia since 2016 and have only two wins against the Bulldogs in their last 14 attempts. That’s not good enough if Tennessee wants to be considered a true national power and not just a team that can mount up and make a championship run every once in a while.

One could debate if a win over Georgia this season would be bigger than the Vols win over Alabama in 2022. On one hand, the Vols needed some spectacular plays and probably played a bit over their heads against the Crimson Tide in that memorable game. The Vols also beat former Bama coach Nick Saban when he was still at his heights, so there’s something to be said for toppling one of the all-time greatest coaches in any sport.

On the other, if the Vols beat the Bulldogs on Saturday, it would be on the road and almost guarantee that the Vols would be in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. 

I’ll let you decide which win would be bigger. Nevertheless, here are four reasons why I think Tennessee beats Georgia on Saturday:

Quarterback Play

I have every reason to believe that Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is going to play against Georgia despite a concussion and banged-up left, non-throwing, shoulder. If not, backup senior Gaston Moore will man the fort. Either way, the two should be able to be more proficient than Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has been recently.

Beck has thrown a staggering 12 interceptions this season and nine in his last four games. It’s worth noting that all of Beck’s turnovers have been on the road, but still, he’s suspect when it comes to protecting the football.

Injuries

While everyone wants to talk about Tennessee’s injury situation in the backfield, things aren’t much better at Georgia. The Bulldogs have listed starting tailback Trevor Etienne as “out” for the Tennessee game and have two other running backs that are questionable. That Bulldogs have already been short on playmakers this season. The latest injury news doesn’t help.

The Vols have Iamaleava, as noted, and receiver Dont’e Thornton listed as questionable. Thornton would clearly be a loss, but the Vols have depth at receiver and, frankly, no Tennessee receiver has looked far better than any other. When it comes to injuries, with Iamaleava playing as I expect, the Vols are better off on Saturday.

D Travels

Tennessee has an elite defense by any standard. However, let’s take a look at one particular stat that could derail Beck’s day against the Vols. Tennessee is fifth in the SEC with 2.4 sacks per game. An already unsure Beck could be pushed to the brink against  the Vols who will surely be able to get pressure on Beck. Just how much remains to be seen.

The Vols still haven’t given up 20 points in a game this season and rank second in the SEC, just behind Texas, in yards allowed this season at 272 per game. 

The Vols went to Georgia in 2022 with a defense that wasn’t great and an offense that had to efficiently communicate on the road, which didn’t happen in a rowdy, and threw off the Vols’ vaunted passing attack. Now, they’ll rely on a defense that will keep them in the game if backup Navy Shuler is forced to play quarterback on Saturday.

Run it Up

The Vols’ debacle in Athens in 2022 was partly due to the aforementioned inability to communicate. That will still be a struggle on Saturday, but the Vols don’t have to be elite in passing game communication to be effective. The Vols can lean on the ole’ fashioned running game. The Vols rank No. 1 in the SEC and ninth in the nation in rushing offense at 235 yards per game. The Vols can lean on the run and, perhaps, take the crowd out of the game. Moreover, Georgia isn’t great against the run.

The Bulldogs aren’t bad, but just sixth in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing 111 yards per game. This Georgia defense is good, but it’s not elite by two standards. The Bulldogs aren’t as good on defense as they’ve been in recent past and they won’t have the best defense on the field on Saturday.

Prediction: Tennessee 23, Georgia 20