The good news is that Tennessee just has to beat the Vanderbilt Commodores to reach the College Football Playoff. No issue, right? UT has owned Vandy since Gen. Robert Neyland’s second year on the job back in 1927.
Well, the bad news is that not only is this Vandy team significantly better than those in years past, but SEC teams have been uniquely bad in road games this year. Seven times this year, ranked SEC opponents have lost on the road to unranked teams. That’s a record.
Josh Heupel is aware of the challenge.
“The league across the board, the depth of it, it’s really good, and you go on the road, loud environments makes it a little bit more difficult if you’re not communicating at a really high level, so those two things together make it difficult,” Heupel said on Monday. “It’s always been difficult on the road.”
Just last week, two teams saw their CFP hopes smashed with road losses to unranked teams. The Ole Miss Rebels lost to the Florida Gators in The Swamp and the Alabama Crimson Tide went to Norman, Okla., only to get blown out by the Oklahoma Sooners.
Tennessee is not immune from the trend this year either. Their loss at the Arkansas Razorbacks coming off a bye back in early October is one of those seven. Now, they will try to avoid it happening a second time at Vandy.
“You’ve got to understand you’re going to get their best, and their best is really good,” Heupel said. “We got to be at our best too.”
Of course, Vandy is also part of this trend but from the other side. The Commodores shocked Alabama earlier in the year the same day the Hogs shocked Tennessee, a week after Bama beat the Georgia Bulldogs.
Clark Lea’s team is 6-5 and bowl eligible, a first for the program since 2018, and they also have road wins over the Auburn Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats. SImply put, this team is dangerous.
“They do a great job of tying all three phases together,” Heupel said. “They play complementary football. They’re smart. They’re tough. They’re physical. They’re disciplined. They make you earn it.”
Two factors work in the Vols’ favor, though, that haven’t applied to the previous SEC road losses. For starters, the game is in Nashville, and that’s Vol country, so while Vandy is playing at “home,” there could end up being far more Tennessee fans than Vanderbilt fans.
Secondly, lack of depth is seemingly starting to wear Vandy down. Part of the parity in college football and the SEC is that a fully healthy Vandy could catch a Bama team napping if they’re banged up, but late in the season, those lesser schools will have trouble doing that if they’re banged up as well.
To that end, Vandy is on a two-game losing streak and lost its last home game to the South Carolina Gamecocks 28-7. At the same time, they put up a fight against the LSU Tigers on the road last Saturday. Simply put, they’re dangerous.
“It’s a huge test for us and one we’ve got to get prepared for and get ready for and practice well and get ready to go play well on Saturday afternoon,” Heupel said.
Tennessee is 6-9 in SEC road games under Heupel despite going 19-12 overall and undefeated at home throughout the season two of the past three years. Clearly, there’s a drop-off for this team on the road.
On the other hand, another counterpoint is that six of those nine losses were at night, and is 2-0 in noon kickoffs on the road Saturday. This is another noon kickoff. Still, the simple fact is to make the CFP, they have to avoid being part of a trend.
