Tennessee football should be commended for winning 10 regular-season games and making the initial 12-team College Football Playoff. The Vols should be applauded for coming in at No. 7 in the final CFP rankings.
They should be praised because they did it despite some obvious flaws.
The offense scored 30 points in just two SEC games. The passing attack floundered at times. The receivers underachieved. The pass rush was non-existent against Georgia and Ohio State. Linebackers often got beat in pass coverage.
But Tennessee still went 10-3 and beat Florida and Alabama.
Can the 2025 Vols match this past season’s win total? Given today’s UT roster, my answer is no.
Now, that roster could change dramatically by the end of January or June. But I’m not optimistic Tennessee can get to 10 wins next season.
Here’s why:
Overhaul at wide receiver
Tennessee must replace all three starters at receiver, and they lost five in the transfer portal. UT has added one portal receiver, Amari Jefferson of Alabama, and three high school recruits. But newcomers at receiver have typically struggled with Josh Heupel’s up-tempo offense at Tennessee due to the amount of reading defenses that’s required.
Five-star recruit Mike Mathews had just seven catches for 90 yards last season while two other five-star freshmen flourished: Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State has 70 for 1,224 yards and 14 touchdowns, and Ryan Williams at Alabama averaged 19 yards on 45 grabs.
Tulane’s Chris Brazzell II was a coveted recruit in the portal, but he had just 29 catches for 333 yards and two scores and wasn’t a consistent long-ball threat. In 2023, a prize in the portal was Oregon’s Dont’e Thornton, but he delivered just 13 catches for 224 yards and was injured on his only touchdown reception.
USC transfer Bru McCoy was the lone exception to the first-year struggles, coming away with 52 catches for 667 yards.In 2021, Mississippi State transfer JaVonta Payton had six TD grabs and averaged 22.9 yards, but he had just 18 receptions.
Based on past history, it’s hard to imagine a newcomer at receiver lighting it up in 2025.
Tennessee won’t be nearly as good at running back.
You can’t lose Dylan Sampson and his record-setting single-season rushing yards and touchdowns and not take a dip. DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis look like competent back, but nothing like the SEC Offensive Player of the Year.
Rebuilding the trenches
The offensive line loses five of its top six, including center Cooper Mays and Javontez Spraggins. Left tackle Lance Heard is the lone returning starter right now, although Andrej Karic could get another year of eligibility. Heard, the LSU transfer, was a major disappointment the first half of last year before settling into solid play.
Moreover, UT has not signed and developed one offensive lineman out of the high school ranks that became a starter in four years under Heupel. Thus, the offensive line likely will take a step back.
On the other side up front, Tennessee is losing at least five quality defensive linemen. The good news is, the Vols played about a dozen last year, so there are quality players that return, like Joshua Josephs, Dominic Bailey, Tyre West, Jaxson Moi, Daevin Hobbs and Caleb Herring.
While the defensive line should be solid again, it won’t have the depth to be as disruptive as it was in 2024.
Defense will likely regress
Tennessee’s defense was, statistically, its best since 1998. But linebackers weren’t good in pass coverage and the safety position needs more speed and athletic ability. This is another area of the team that figures to take a step back.
In 2025, Tennessee could be really good at quarterback, tight end, defensive line and cornerback. But the current roster looks like an eight-win team to me.
