Revisiting preseason predictions can be fun – sometimes. You can be made to look smart or silly, spot-on or stupid, insightful or ignorant.
Let’s take a look back at my preseason predictions for the Tennessee Vols. I wasn’t on board with the offense being great, Nico Iamaleava being a Heisman Trophy candidate or the team winning 10 games.
So I had some hits and misses.
Here are most of my crystal ball picks as well as anonymous comments from some SEC coaches before the 2024 season.
PREDICTION: The Vols will go 9-3 and be on the cusp of making the 12-team College Football playoff.
RESULT: Miss.
UT went 10-2 and was seeded No. 9 in the CFP before losing in the first round.
One SEC coach had a similar viewpoint: “I think they’ve got a chance (to make the CFP) if they get the quarterback position clicking.”
Another coach said: “I bet they beat Alabama this year.”
He was right.
PREDICTION: Iamaleava will pass for over 3,000 yards with 25 TDs and 5 interceptions. He will NOT finish in the top 5 of the Heisman voting, as some have forecast.
RESULT: Hit and miss.
I was too optimistic. Iamaleava passed for 2,616 yards with 19 TDs and 5 picks. He didn’t get a Heisman vote.
“He’s got the talent and everybody says he’s got the makeup,” one SEC coach said of Iamaleava, the former five-star recruit.
PREDICTION: Dylan Sampson will gain over 1,200 yards from scrimmage, score 12 TDs and average over 6 yards per carry.
RESULT: Hit
Honestly, Sampson far exceeded my numbers. Sampson had 1,634 yards from scrimmage, a school-record 22 TDs and averaged 5.8 yards per carry. He was named the SEC Offensive Player of the Year.
PREDICTION: The offense will average almost 40 points per game and have just one game in which it scores less than 21 points.
RESULT: Hit (barely)
UT averaged 35.7 points per game and had two regular-season games in which it scored less than 21 points.
So, have defenses caught up to Josh Heupel’s up-tempo offense?
“Defenses have not totally caught up with it,” one SEC coach said. “Eventually, maybe. But not in Josh Heupel’s career at Tennessee.”
PREDICTION: The Vols will average about 190 rush yards per game.
RESULT: Miss.
UT averaged 226.3 and led the SEC for the second year in a row.
“He runs the ball very effectively,” one SEC coach said. “It’s not just throwing it all over the lot.”
PREDICTION: Squirrel White, who caught 67 passes in 2023, will catch 80 passes. Bru McCoy will match his 2022 total of 52. Transfer Chris Brazzell will average 16 yards per catch.
RESULT: BIG swing and a miss.
White caught 34 passes but he was plagued all season by a shoulder injury. If healthy, he surely would have caught more than 34 passes, but not 80. McCoy caught 39. Brazzell averaged only 11.5 yards per catch.
PREDICTION: The defense will record 45 sacks. James Pearce and Joshua Josephs will combine for 18. Defensive tackles will combine for 12.
RESULT: Hit and miss and miss.
UT had 29 sacks. Pearce and Josephs combined for 9 sacks. The defensive tackles combined for 11.5.
PREDICTION: UT’s defense will hold six opponents to 20 or fewer points.
RESULT: Hit.
The Vols held the first nine foes to less than 20 points and had 10 such games overall.
PREDICTION: The defense will once again rank among the top five in the SEC in points allowed, total yards, run defense sacks and tackle for loss. And will hold opponents to less than 113.7 rush yards per game (the 2023 total).
RESULT: Hit.
UT ranked in the top five in each of those defensive categories except sacks. UT allowed 103.9 rush yards per game.
PREDICTION: UT will score 140 first-quarter points (it scored 141 in 2022).
RESULT: Miss.
UT scored 102 first-quarter points and had a five-game stretch without scoring in the opening period.
So, as you can see, we had some hits, some misses and some close calls. Preseason predictions are usually futile, but we’ll try again next year.